Anything coming after Dennis?

[MomOf2DisneyKids]

"prognosticator"
I give these guys a little credit they try hard with the best of science, but I wouldn't get worried until 24 hours before predicted landfall.

Look at these tracks of some of the most deadliest ever..
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196307.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200411.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at193402.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at193505.asp

ok, those were VERY interesting to look at!!!

 

[LIDisneyFan]

I am getting SOOOOOOOOO sick of monitoring the National Hurricane Web Site

But, all in all, if you'er at Disney, you'll be fine. Maybe a day or 2 or bad weather, but that's about it. Enjoy!

 

[Uncleromulus]

back2disney:
Maybe that "best of science" is what the problem is in forecasting. Seems virtually all computer driven, with so many "models" that they wind up with no idea which one is correct.
As with Dennis. I saw the hurricane "expert" from Accuweather on one of the TV networks. It was when Dennis had just cleared Cuba and everyone was clamoring to know where it was going to hit. The expert indicated that some models had it heading to New Orleans--others toward the Florida panhandle. He just smiled, mentally scratched his head, and more or less suggested we all wait and see!! Didn't attempt to venture his OWN human guess.

 

[1MegMeg]

It dosen't look promising certainly, but let's wait and see. I recall a few years back one such hurricane (I don't recall the name) was taking "dead aim" at WDW--some even had the eye heading straight toward the Castle!! But then about 24 hours before everything was to fall apart, it took what they like to call an "unexpected turn" and didn't even strike Florida, much less WDW. I believe it finally made landfall somewhere in the upper part of the Carolina's.

Are you thinking of Hurricane Floyd in 1999? I remember that one because I was in school still in Gainesville. Floyd was coming is straight off the Atlantic and then at the last second turned and went up the coast of the US.

Heck, even look at Charley last year!

 

[YEKCIM]

Assuming Emily does turn out to be an East Coast of FL storm, what does the smart money say about arrival date? I am *supposed* to be at MK, for the day, on 7/21, and this looks ominiously close to Emily's potential ETA.

~YEKCIM

 

[Talking Hands]

There is TD5 out there that is being reported on. Nothing else.

 

[Talking Hands]

TD#5 is named Emily, word is to be upgraded to a tropical storm today We leave on Friday, guess I have to pack my Mickey umbrella

It is TD5 until it actually become a tropical storm. So far that has not happened. Emily is the next name but that doesn't mean that TD5 will become Emily. The next TD to become a TS will be named Emily.

 

[Talking Hands]

Assuming Emily does turn out to be an East Coast of FL storm, what does the smart money say about arrival date? I am *supposed* to be at MK, for the day, on 7/21, and this looks ominiously close to Emily's potential ETA. ~YEKCIM

There is NO EMILY at this point. It is still a tropical depression. It is way too far out to know what it will do.

Also id you wnat the up to date information on hurricanes you can get on an email list form either NHC or SIU Weather Processor which will send you all advisories as soon as they are released.

 

[BESUNNYSIDEUP]

We are going 7/24 and are watching the waters close too. If anyone gets an update please let us know.
For those that have been there done that:
If a hurricane hits FL doesn't WDW have to evacuate too? Last time we were at Myrtle Beach we were there about an hour and a loud alarm sounded with a message everyone had to check out of the hotel and leave the area. Boy that was a great vacation. I don't want to repeat it and we don't have many days so I need to make the most out of every second! That would be great if we got to stay at WDW and be safe. What do they do with the animals? I have always wondered why I never heard of WDW getting any damage. I just thought they tried to keep it low-key and didn't let the press know.

 

[Talking Hands]

Actually frequenty people evacuate to the WDW area as it is well inland. LAst year was a fluke.

 

[YEKCIM]

I would think that if you are going 7/24, TD5/Emily would not be of concern to you; anything that comes after this one might be worth keeping an eye on. Intellicast projects TD5/Emily around Cuba in 5 days, which is a week before your arrival. If the projection is *anywhere* near correct, I would think that any effect of TD5/Emily on FL would be around mid week next week...say July 19-21, although I'm open to anyone else's prognostications (see earlier post). Still, I would keep an eye on whatever shapes up in the tropics for the next several days.

~YEKCIM

 

[colleen costello]

Besunnysideup, we also arrive 7/24. I am not too worried about being in Orlando because we drive down and can always adjust our schedule a day or two. What I am worried about is our big night in Vero Beach. In the middle of our stay (PO-FQ then Beach Club Villas) we added a night at Vero and we are SO looking forward to that time at the beach (we live in Indiana and don't often see the ocean). It is the Vero night I worry about, because the Disney resort is right on the ocean!

Let's both pray together!

 

[silverangel879]

Thanks to all of you who are charing their "Storm/Hurricane Season" experiences. I'm doing my first trip to Orlando in 2 weeks and I'm scare as hell to anything getting too near of Puerto Rico or Florida. So hearing your experiences relax me a little. (I know I'm a compulsive freak who wants everything perfect! ) But thanks again!

My boyfriend is so relax, I wish he can share that "state" with me.

 

[Talking Hands]

TD5/Emily ~YEKCIM

Please do not refer to it as Emily until it is actually named Emily. I have seen it happen when the name doesn't go to the TD you think it will. I TD can pop up and excalate fast and get that name and TD5 get the next name. They do not always go in order. So no naming the TD until it is officially named by the National Hurricane Center.

 

[GGOOFY1]

It is TD5 until it actually become a tropical storm. So far that has not happened. Emily is the next name but that doesn't mean that TD5 will become Emily. The next TD to become a TS will be named Emily.

That's true, it is on TD5, it is not named till it becomes a TS. My mistake. There might be another TD that gets named before TD5. All I know is it looks clear to fly into Orlando on 7/15!! Just get me down there, I'll make the best of the weather.

 

[laurabelle]

and changed our plans. And NO, I did not cancel (I'm not ) but my flight is due to arrive on Sunday evening. I just do not want to be in the air, or the airports that close to what may be a hurricane. I didn't feel comfortable waiting it out for a few more days, so we decided today to drive down a day earlier and add on one night at AKL... which I've been dying to try anyway!

 

[colleen costello]

Laura, that sounds like a great plan! It's a lot less stressful when you are driving. We'll just go sooner or later (of course sooner but don't tell hubby!) if the weather looks funky for our 7/25 arrival. We'll even stay offsite if we have to... Someone on another Board recommended a nice, cheap hotel just offsite on #192.

 

[Talking Hands]

Awesome plan. I'll be in Orlando from the 20th to the 26th. Hope this storm dissolves or goes north well before it hits the Florida coast. As I said before right now it is too far out to predict with any accuracy. There are too many things that can affect it.

 

[Jaxs27]

and changed our plans. And NO, I did not cancel (I'm not ) but my flight is due to arrive on Sunday evening. I just do not want to be in the air, or the airports that close to what may be a hurricane. I didn't feel comfortable waiting it out for a few more days, so we decided today to drive down a day earlier and add on one night at AKL... which I've been dying to try anyway!

We have also decided to drive down a day earlier. We have family in Odessa, so we can just stay with them. I am mostly nervous about driving, once I am there it shouldn't be to bad. I have also added some PS times, in case one of our days get rained out. I am really wanting to eat at LeCellier and if that day got rained out and we couldn't get another ressie, I would be bummed. This way I can sleep at night, well maybe.

 

[BESUNNYSIDEUP]

Thanks for the info! I'll take anything to make me feel a little easier about the trip. We have planned it for so long that I want everything to be perfect (a little falt of mine).
The odds of something coming thru when we are there and hitting that exact location is pretty slim I guess. Also I think there is usually a week or more in between storms so if this storm does come this way maybe that will be it for another couple of weeks. Keeping good vibes!
Any other stories of encouragement would be great for us coming that way soon.
We are flying to keep things low stress and to maximize our vacation time. CANT WAIT!