The water at CC was quite chilly in December. It was okay, but I needed either the water or the air to be a few degrees warmer to enjoy being in the water.
Renting kayaks made for a nice way to be ON the water without being IN the water.
It all depends on what you consider cold, In guess. We were there last Friday and it was partly sunny, about 70-75 degrees air temp and the water was fine once you got in although the initial contact was slightly off-putting.
Marsh Harbour, Abaco sea temperatures today were 77 degrees and that's decently warm. See below for link:
We sailed over New Years. Nassau was about 75 and sunny, as was Castaway Cay although the water was chilly. We did the Sandbar excursion on CC and there, the water is super shallow, which allowed the sun to heat up the water well - the water on that sandbar was really nice!
I was on the Dream last weekend and Castaway Cay on Sun, Jan 14, was not ideal. It wasn't that cold, but it was overcast all day and the wind was howling, making it feel a bit chilly. Almost all of the excursions were cancelled and Serenity Bay was closed because of the high winds. On the family beach, it was mostly kids in the water, and probably no more than 20-30 at a time most of the day. I did get in to do some snorkeling after lunch, and while the water was cold, it wasn't unbearable. The worst part was after I got out, but I headed straight back to the ship after.
I've heard stories where it can be beautiful this time of the year, so maybe you'll get lucky!
We were on Castaway Cay on New Years Day and I thought the weather was fantastic. Mid 70s and sunny. The water was cool at first but it great after a short time.
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