I've gotten in twice...five days in Feb in a SV studio just after it opened--booked within a day of booking becoming available to non-owners (don't remember the exact time frame, as it was "different" that first opening season)...
Then, this past March, I booked a five-day trip in late June (6/22-6/27) at OKW w/friends and on a whim, in early April, I decided to see if I could get into VGF for the weekend before or after...
There was a one-BR LV open the weekend before and after a brief (very brief--it lasted maybe two nanoseconds) fight w/my conscience over spending 110 points for two nights!), I booked it...then, at the suggestion of the nice CM I was talking to when I called to arrange ME and finalize my friend's studio, I W/L'ed the same two days in a studio--one W/L for a SV and one for a LV...about a month prior to the trip, I got the SV studio...cut the points I needed to spend in half and since there was only one of me, there was really no need for the full one-BR!
The VGF is phenomenal...the CMs call it "the Grand" and so I've taken to calling it that, too...I loved the subsequent five days at OKW, too...but there's just something so very special about the Grand...
Anyway, that's the long way around saying you certainly do have a shot at it...especially if you're willing to W/L, stalk the website, and/or do a split stay--
Good luck and hope you love it as much as I do!