Anyone getting worried about March Break Travel

[damo]

Ugh - it pains me to read all this back and forth, for the simple reason that people are feeling real stress and concern over whether or not to go - and others are "laughing out loud" at how some of us deal with this stress, concern and pain.

For everyone in a situation where you need to make a decision, my opinion is that you find a news and information source (perhaps your doctor?) that you trust and go with your instincts and feelings. Nobody here can tell you what to do or if your decision is right or wrong. Certainly nobody here has the expertise to advise anyone else - all they can provide is their opinion, based on their interpretation of the news.

My view is that message boards are never a place to gather important information but to share opinions. No matter what the topic is, you're going to get opinions on both sides and that is the attraction. You'll always find someone to agree with you and someone to provide opposition.

 

[ottawamom]

My thought is: If I go, I will be down and back in 6 days. If I am healthy when we leave and pick up something on the plane I won't even know it for serveral days (5-14 days incubation on average). At this point I'm likely just to figure I've been pushing myself too hard in the parks. Likely, I will be back home and able to isolate myself at home before I am truly sick.

I don't get travel (medical) insurance as I am covered anywhere in NA with DH insurance from work. I will look into it and make sure there aren't exclusions for this type of outbreak. Thanks for the suggestion to check that out.

I won't go if the airline cancels flights or if Disney closes the parks (and I will end up eating the costs associated with those happily). But if that doesn't happen I'm outta here.

For those with underlying conditions (or travelling companions with those) I agree it's not worth the risk to be so far away from home during times such as these with so much unknown.

 

[pigletto]

Ugh - it pains me to read all this back and forth, for the simple reason that people are feeling real stress and concern over whether or not to go - and others are "laughing out loud" at how some of us deal with this stress, concern and pain.

For everyone in a situation where you need to make a decision, my opinion is that you find a news and information source (perhaps your doctor?) that you trust and go with your instincts and feelings. Nobody here can tell you what to do or if your decision is right or wrong. Certainly nobody here has the expertise to advise anyone else - all they can provide is their opinion, based on their interpretation of the news.

Absolutely nobody laughed out loud at someones stress, pain or concern. Bankr "laughed out loud" at the logic of one persons statement . That is fact, and it is not fair to characterize it as laughing at someones stress concern or pain. Now, I read it as lighthearted and he explained why .. it's fine if that wasn't your opinion but the thread would go south pretty quick if we are accusing people of things they didn't do IMO.

Now.. I've stayed largely out of this because I have no skin in the game and believe everyone will do what is best for them.
One thing I honestly do not understand is why people are taking this so much more seriously than influeza which also a threat with winter travel? I do not mean that sarcastically, I truly want to know why we travel during flu season en masse but not now? What am I missing?

 

[TommyJK]

Leaving next Friday for Spring Break. If flights are not cancelled, and parks remain open, we'll be going.

Wife, kids and myself are in good health. We have more reported cases here in the GTA than there are in Florida. And while I'm sure numbers will rise, we're talking in the magnitude of double digits at most in all likelihood. I lived through the SARS "panic" in Toronto when that went down and it was more hysteria than actual issue. Now Covid-19 is indeed spreading faster than SARS did, but again we're talking about number of cases below 100 among populations of millions.

My bigger fear is that my wife gets treated like crap because she's Asian even though she hasn't stepped foot in Asia in her life (she was Born in Canada).

 

[pigletto]

My bigger fear is that my wife gets treated like crap because she's Asian

I fear that for you too, and I'm so sorry it has to be a concern at all for you. Ignorance makes people do and say ugly things. I hope your trip is without incident and you have a wonderful time.

 

[Etch]

We're doing a quick stay at Caribbean Beach from Mar 13-16 before heading on to visit my Dad in Tampa. One day visit to HS during our stay...wish me luck in that craziness! We will definitely be going.

Was checking today and there is availability in all Deluxe and Moderate levels for that weekend. There are even value rooms at Pop and All-Stars that showed up today which makes me think that they must be starting to get some cancellations.

 

[Mickey&JoshNut]

We're doing a quick stay at Caribbean Beach from Mar 13-16 before heading on to visit my Dad in Tampa. One day visit to HS during our stay...wish me luck in that craziness! We will definitely be going.

Was checking today and there is availability in all Deluxe and Moderate levels for that weekend. There are even value rooms at Pop and All-Stars that showed up today which makes me think that they must be starting to get some cancellations.

I'm not surprised. I heard that Disney was allowing guests to reschedule their trips...like what they do when a hurricane is predicted. It also said that they are monitoring the situation.

 

[damo]

Absolutely nobody laughed out loud at someones stress, pain or concern. Bankr "laughed out loud" at the logic of one persons statement . That is fact, and it is not fair to characterize it as laughing at someones stress concern or pain. Now, I read it as lighthearted and he explained why .. it's fine if that wasn't your opinion but the thread would go south pretty quick if we are accusing people of things they didn't do IMO.

Now.. I've stayed largely out of this because I have no skin in the game and believe everyone will do what is best for them.
One thing I honestly do not understand is why people are taking this so much more seriously than influeza which also a threat with winter travel? I do not mean that sarcastically, I truly want to know why we travel during flu season en masse but not now? What am I missing?

I think it is because the mortality rate has been thought to be 20x higher than the flu.

 

[pigletto]

I think it is because the mortality rate has been thought to be 20x higher than the flu.

I did some research after I asked because I truly don’t understand the differences . The death rate is believed to be on par with a severe flu season, 1 to 2 percent .. not 20x.
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=...rus-flu.html&usg=AOvVaw3HuzlZnXqCTuOdMYBgRs8G
The CDC and WHO also feel that the death rate will lower once we consider all of the mild to moderate cases that are not being tested.
I have to guess that’s it’s because it’s rapid spreading and new and new scares people. But I also feel media is driving this to a frenzy.

 

[thr33boys]

Absolutely nobody laughed out loud at someones stress, pain or concern. Bankr "laughed out loud" at the logic of one persons statement . That is fact, and it is not fair to characterize it as laughing at someones stress concern or pain. Now, I read it as lighthearted and he explained why .. it's fine if that wasn't your opinion but the thread would go south pretty quick if we are accusing people of things they didn't do IMO.

Now.. I've stayed largely out of this because I have no skin in the game and believe everyone will do what is best for them.
One thing I honestly do not understand is why people are taking this so much more seriously than influeza which also a threat with winter travel? I do not mean that sarcastically, I truly want to know why we travel during flu season en masse but not now? What am I missing?

I think the biggest distinction between influenza and COVID-19 is that there is a readily available vaccine for influenza. Dr’s have a lot of knowledge and we are all familiar with influenza, even still there are deaths. The medical professionals know very little about COVID-19 comparably speaking, and any type of vaccine is going to take time to develop. For me, it’s the unknown that has me concerned.

 

[pigletto]

I think the biggest distinction between influenza and COVID-19 is that there is a readily available vaccine for influenza. Dr’s have a lot of knowledge and we are all familiar with influenza, even still there are deaths. The medical professionals know very little about COVID-19 comparably speaking, and any type of vaccine is going to take time to develop. For me, it’s the unknown that has me concerned.

I agree completely that it’s the unknown and rapid spread that is causing the most concern . But don’t forget that even with a vaccine it has a comparable mortality rate with the flu .
So I still don’t see why anyone who would travel during flu season feels that this is a much larger risk ? I’m looking for the facts to support cancelling now , but being willing to travel during flu season and I can’t find them.

 

[damo]

I did some research after I asked because I truly don’t understand the differences . The death rate is believed to be on par with a severe flu season, 1 to 2 percent .. not 20x.
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=...rus-flu.html&usg=AOvVaw3HuzlZnXqCTuOdMYBgRs8G
The CDC and WHO also feel that the death rate will lower once we consider all of the mild to moderate cases that are not being tested.
I have to guess that’s it’s because it’s rapid spreading and new and new scares people. But I also feel media is driving this to a frenzy.

From the article ... "On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1 percent of people who become infected. The 1918 flu had an unusually high fatality rate, around 2 percent. Because it was so contagious, that flu killed tens of millions of people."

If the average seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 per cent and this one has a mortality rate of 2 per cent, that is 20x higher. The comparison to the 1918 flu scares people. However....we live in different times and that 2 per cent death rate seems just to be for the Wuhan area.

Another issue that causes concern ... this is on top of the normal flu. If this was just replacing the normal flu, that would be different.

 

[Mickey&JoshNut]

I agree completely that it’s the unknown and rapid spread that is causing the most concern . But don’t forget that even with a vaccine it has a comparable mortality rate with the flu .
So I still don’t see why anyone who would travel during flu season feels that this is a much larger risk ? I’m looking for the facts to support cancelling now , but being willing to travel during flu season and I can’t find them.

I think the difference is that you can get a flu vaccine which will build up the antibodies your body needs to fight it off and bu getting the flu vaccine, the effects of the flu are less. With the coronavirus, there is no vaccine and at this point they are not sure how it is spreading because there are people getting it that have not traveled and it seems to be spreading rapidly. I think too people are concerned about getting caught somewhere that flights may be cancelled or that they will be subject to a quarantine.

 

[pigletto]

Correct , that is for the Wuhan area . Not a country with our public health information and health care systems, . Also the paragraph directly after that stated that the numbers were quite potentially skewed because of the sample , and that it will likely be a lower morbidity rate based on the most current numbers . Again nobody knows for certain and I’m very aware of how scary that could be . People have to make the choice that is right for them . I just hope it will be made with the facts as they become available .
My sister is pregnant and lives in Tampa , I hope very much I’ll be able to travel and safely visit my newest niece or nephew .

 

[ellbell]

I think it is because the mortality rate has been thought to be 20x higher than the flu.

It is by far not anywhere close to 20x higher. Ever the 1-2% mortality rate is predicted to be inflated because the number of people who are asymptomatic or have mild cold like symptoms never even get tested.

 

[MoreTravels]

While it is reassuring to hear all the good suggestions, it is the unknown like someone said earlier, that is the most worrisome.

Doctors do not know much about this virus as it is novel. It is possible to have re-infection. This is quite different from influenza. So does that mean the patient does not develop antibodies against after fighting it off? Does the virus stay in human body in low level only to come out again later?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html
So no, this is not just like a simple flu. This is a complex virus. It may have sequelae to the infected that we still don't know until later. In fact, it may cause infertility... Would this affect the humans to have more future generations? We don't know.

https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-scientists-coronavirus-male-fertility-1488235

 

[damo]

It is by far not anywhere close to 20x higher. Ever the 1-2% mortality rate is predicted to be inflated because the number of people who are asymptomatic or have mild cold like symptoms never even get tested.

For sure, but the Wuhan statistics out there are the ones that are scaring people. Normal flu is about 0.1%, Wuhan is said to be about 2%. That is 20x higher.

 

[MoreTravels]

I think it's a hard choice.

 

[ellbell]

For sure, but the Wuhan statistics out there are the ones that are scaring people. Normal flu is about 0.1%, Wuhan is said to be about 2%. That is 20x higher.

People are then scared of false statistics. Is the normal flu also that low in Wuhan? Comparing apples to oranges isn't helping anyone feel better and perpetuates the problem

 

[Canadian Girl]

You can’t compare China with Canada. Many there have chronic health issues for a number of reasons. Until recently, most had no health insurance and the parents of my adult Chinese students seem to have many issues at younger ages than happens here. Air quality is not good although my student from Wuhan said Hubei is not bad compared with other provinces China, but many men smoke heavily everywhere in the country. It’s also possible many were infected and not counted as they had very mild illness if this is as contagious as it seems. I am torn. My flights leave a week tomorrow for a week long stay at WDW. I was planning to cancel but after getting my flu shot yesterday and speaking with my doctor who just got back from Florida, I feel a lot more comfortable going and being able to stay healthy. He feels,it will come to Canada and spread everywhere so doesn’t see the need to panic.