Any Hurricane Data to reassure paranoid hubby?

[erinch]

We we have to go to WDW in the summer we usually go the first part of August. Seems less busy with some schools back in session.

My hubby wants to go in July this year due to last year's hurricane season. Is there any website anyone knows of which shows how often in the past 50 years a hurricane has hit Florida during the first week of August?

I know it's a crapshoot, there are no guarantees, and that we may be in a more violent season, but it would be nice to have a little real history to pin the decision on...

 

[Queenie]

No idea about the figures but we were there when Hurricane Jeanne came over Orlando area last year and nothing bad happened (except the power went out for 24 hours or so.) Even the Disney parks were open Monday morning (Jeanne hit Sat night.) Hurricanes never really seem to affect Orlando as they normally go up the coast, obviously there are exceptions but you can reassure your husband that it's unlikely your holiday will be affected too much even if one does come along while you're there.

 

[Wish I lived in Fl]

I am going end of August, maybe.
Supposedly the same weather system that caused 4 Hurruicanes to hit Fl last year is still in place. Something like a Bermuda High that keeps the storm from traveling East out to sea.
Thinking about changing from late august since it seemed like August/September was the worst.
I know it's not what you wanted to hear but maybe it might save you from 40 years of "I Told You So".

 

[civileng68]

YOu cannot use weather patterns for hurricanes. They mean nothing.

August is the early part of the season.

Last year was the first year of a predicted 10-20 year heavy cycle that is mimicking that of the cycle in the 1940's. They believe it will work in the same cycle nearly every 60 years. The cycle in the 1940's lasted what they said was 2 decades.

Because of this info. I'm already buying up hurricane items as they are non existent when season starts.

 

[erinch]

I guess part of my question is that there seems to be less "risk" for hurricanes during the first part of August as opposed to the later weeks or early September?

(I KNOW there's a risk, but isn't there always and that Orlando is where they evacuate people TO, and we grew up in S.CA right on the San Andreas fault...)
No rational arguments seem to make a dent in his having watched too much weather channel last year, so I was wondering if there is a chart anywhere:

In the last 50 years there have been 6 hurricanes during Week 1 of August as opposed to 687 during the first week of September.... am I making any sense?

 

[G00fyDad]

YOu cannot use weather patterns for hurricanes. They mean nothing.

August is the early part of the season.

Last year was the first year of a predicted 10-20 year heavy cycle that is mimicking that of the cycle in the 1940's. They believe it will work in the same cycle nearly every 60 years. The cycle in the 1940's lasted what they said was 2 decades.

Because of this info. I'm already buying up hurricane items as they are non existent when season starts.

So you are saying that Florida is going to be hit like last year every year for about the next 9 years?

 

[safetymom]

Hurricanes hadn't moved through Central Florida in 40 years before last year. So I doubt we will see another season like last year.

Our county was hit by 3 of them. I had just moved there months before but thats not enough to scare me back to PA.

 

[civileng68]

So you are saying that Florida is going to be hit like last year every year for about the next 9 years?

Yes, thats what the "experts" say, but you know how they are. I'll be prepared though. In fact they said it could be for 10-20 years.

 

[civileng68]

Hurricanes hadn't moved through Central Florida in 40 years before last year. So I doubt we will see another season like last year.

Our county was hit by 3 of them. I had just moved there months before but thats not enough to scare me back to PA.

Hi mom,

YOu may want to be prepared though because back in the 60's was a cycle that they say may be coming around again and could generate this if not more, for years to come.

God help us all! Snow isn't so bad after all you know?

 

[safetymom]

I still have my hurricane supplies from last year. If it happens again, no problem. Hurricanes aren't enough to scare me away from Florida.

I still don't have my roof fixed from last year.

 

[WDSearcher]

So you are saying that Florida is going to be hit like last year every year for about the next 9 years?

Yes, thats what the "experts" say, but you know how they are. I'll be prepared though. In fact they said it could be for 10-20 years.

No, civileng68 ... I think you're wrong. There has never been a time in Florida history when central Florida has been hit by four hurricanes for 9 or ten years in a row. And I would pretty much bet my existence that there will not be four hurricanes to hit central Florida in each of the next 9 years. If that kind of thing were true, no businessman or banker in the world would have backed Disney if he built in Florida. I think you mis-interpreted your data. What the data means, I believe, is that according to those who do this kind of thing for a living, the pattern we are in now will mimic the pattern from the 1940s. You would have to check the Pacific activity after the last four-hurricane year and move through the next few years, following the water current and barometric pressure patterns that came about after that. Then you can approximate what will happen for the next several years.

To the OP -- there is no guarantee that any given month or week will be less active from a hurricane standpoint than any other month or week. July isn't "safer" than August. One year, it could all happen in July -- hurricanes, thunderstorms, brush fires, freak tornados -- the next year it could happen in August, the next year it could not happen at all.

Having just done a five-year weather tracking analysis for the WDW area, I can tell you that for the past five years, it has rained nearly every afternoon during the first two weeks of August, and it has rained nearly every afternoon during the last two weeks of July. About half of those rainstorms originated as or became thunderstorms. In the past five years, there has been one August hurricane to hit Central Florida, Hurricane Charley in 2004. He arrived in Orlando on the 13th. No hurricanes have hit Central Florida in late July for the past five years. If that helps the decision, great. But anything can happen, y'know? The best thing to do is to plan your vacation for when it's most convenient for you and not try to plan around the weather. Weather is too fickle.

 

[G00fyDad]

Statistical Hurricane InformationWe're going in October. I really hope civileng68 is wrong. Time to pray.

 

[Ted and Holly]

Hi mom,

YOu may want to be prepared though because back in the 60's was a cycle that they say may be coming around again and could generate this if not more, for years to come.

God help us all! Snow isn't so bad after all you know?

Being prepared is one thing, going into hysterics is another. Be careful not to get sucked into the "news" channels' hype, designed to keep people watching.

We learned that you can not make generalizations about hurricanes. We know the overall season. What happens duriing that season is anyone's guess.

Ted

 

[civileng68]

No, civileng68 ... I think you're wrong. There has never been a time in Florida history when central Florida has been hit by four hurricanes for 9 or ten years in a row. And I would pretty much bet my existence that there will not be four hurricanes to hit central Florida in each of the next 9 years. If that kind of thing were true, no businessman or banker in the world would have backed Disney if he built in Florida. I think you mis-interpreted your data. What the data means, I believe, is that according to those who do this kind of thing for a living, the pattern we are in now will mimic the pattern from the 1940s. You would have to check the Pacific activity after the last four-hurricane year and move through the next few years, following the water current and barometric pressure patterns that came about after that. Then you can approximate what will happen for the next several years.

To the OP -- there is no guarantee that any given month or week will be less active from a hurricane standpoint than any other month or week. July isn't "safer" than August. One year, it could all happen in July -- hurricanes, thunderstorms, brush fires, freak tornados -- the next year it could happen in August, the next year it could not happen at all.

Having just done a five-year weather tracking analysis for the WDW area, I can tell you that for the past five years, it has rained nearly every afternoon during the first two weeks of August, and it has rained nearly every afternoon during the last two weeks of July. About half of those rainstorms originated as or became thunderstorms. In the past five years, there has been one August hurricane to hit Central Florida, Hurricane Charley in 2004. He arrived in Orlando on the 13th. No hurricanes have hit Central Florida in late July for the past five years. If that helps the decision, great. But anything can happen, y'know? The best thing to do is to plan your vacation for when it's most convenient for you and not try to plan around the weather. Weather is too fickle.

I wasn't so much talking about Central Florida or even Florida at all, but rather Hurricanes in general that have hit the East coast or Gulf of Mexico. All that matters is that they happen, not so much where they hit, because when one forms it can literally go anywhere. Typically Orlando would be in a good and somewhat safe place since it's not coastal, and most hurricanes, though they stay strong, lose most of their power just inside of the coastline. That's why bankers still supported him. The weather was so nice year around and the risk of having truly damaging storms in that area is slim.
I live on the SW Florida coast and was speaking more on behalf of any hurricane sensitive area.

Now, experts can say what they want, but I was not hearing things when the Hurricane Center said that this was a very similiar state of weather as in the 60's when there was an extremely active period of a span of many years.

I know what you are saying though and you make good points, and trust me, I hope it's NOT true as I seriously am becoming paranoid. I lost power in all three storms and got a good brunt of Charlie. It's a very isolating feeling, especially on the coast when there's really no way out.

 

[DancingBear]

This is interesting--a forecast for 2005 (obtained through a link from the Weather Service link above):

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2004/dec2004/

 

[WDSearcher]

Good point Ted and Holly! For years, no one thought twice about going to WDW during hurricane season. We have one year of unusually active weather, and everyone is trying to second-guess where and when the next one is coming.

If you are concerned only about how the hurricanes will affect your WDW vacation, you have to realize that it's very rare for so many major storms to hit Florida in one year, much less CENTRAL Florida. Obviously, a hurricane hitting the coast will affect things like airline schedules and other ancillary parts of a vacation, but to try and figure out what will happen this year will drive you nuts! Most people I know who live in Central Florida are going to be a bit more prepared this year than they have in the past, but beyond that, I don't think there are too many people who are approaching this season with any more trepidation than in the past. And the same should be true of tourists as well. It was proven during Charley, Frances and Jeanne that WDW was one of the safest places in the state to be -- even with a couple of direct hits, all guests were safe, no one was hurt, minor damage was sustained, vacations continued.

 

[civileng68]

Being prepared is one thing, going into hysterics is another. Be careful not to get sucked into the "news" channels' hype, designed to keep people watching.

We learned that you can not make generalizations about hurricanes. We know the overall season. What happens duriing that season is anyone's guess.

Ted

I dont go hysterical, and as a person living a long ways away coming to Disney or living in Central Florida, it's not a dire situation.

However, when you live on the coast, it can be a dire situation and after this past year, I dont really think being a little overly sensitive is a bad thing. So many people in Punta Gorda didnt take it seriously enough and I live just south of there. Charlie hit Punta Gorda head on in August of 04 and guess what........to this very second, the town is in shambles, and rubble. In fact, along the interstate, most of the homes are still without roofs, and are using tarp. May is the expected date to just get the roofs back on the homes.

When you see that, you may tend to get a little jumpy.

 

[ophie]

No... last year's hurricane season was extremely rare. No state has been hit by 4 hurricanes in the same year since before 1900.

Anyway... Hurricane season starts in June. Peak season is from mid-August to mid-October.

 

[CamColt]

I can tell you Hurricane Erin hit WDW overnight, Aug 1-2, 1995. It was the last night our honeymoon. While it wasnt quite as bad as the ones last year, the parks did close down. Would it make me think twice about going to WDW anywhere between June-Nov again? NO way! Weve been back in July, August(more than once),Sept & Oct since then and are going back in July again. If it happens, you deal with it.

 

[WDSearcher]

Actually ... Hurricane Erin wasn't a hurricane any more by the time she reached WDW. There was wind and rain, but nothing near hurricane force. The parks opened a bit late, but they did open, although any outside rides were operating sporadically around the weather, and most shows and parades were cancelled. Hurricane Floyd in 1999 was the first time in history that all theme parks, water parks, and recreation areas did not open due to anticipation of a hurricane.