Another "what would you do?"

[jolynne28]

We are hoping to add on this year, and I have some thoughts. More than some. I have a lot of thoughts. I'm going to just bullet point a list, I'd really like feedback to help me sort it all out.

Quick info on us: We are a family of 5, kids ages 6-11. We live 100 miles away from DW. Bought 150 SSR SAP early last year, then on a whim added 50 pt BWV a couple of months later. We love the Crescent Lake area, had no idea how much we would until we stayed there over the summer. We do a bigger trip in June each year, then I book a lot of shorter stuff well under 7 months b/c we are so close.

- Started off thinking we would just add on ad BWV to get into 1/2 bedrooms. Actually made a lowball offer, rejected.
- Booked a cash stay for our Anniversary at RIV for early June.
- Then started contemplating buying 150 pts. direct. Suddenly had the strong urge to own at RIV even though we've never stayed there.
- Restricted resale started bugging me. Also, I distinctly remember laughing at the skyliner line one night leaving EPCOT. So I switched my thinking to maybe buy Poly direct. That way we have both areas covered.
- Then decided, why would I buy Poly, I can trade in there with SAP. And I hate the tower pt chart, it's stupid high IMO, especially since we need a 1 BR there.
- Very excited about the LSL construction. We love the fort. We bought a used travel trailer in 2019 and renovated it just to go to the fort. The thing ONLY goes to the fort, we aren't campers and don't take it anywhere else. We basically only use it for Halloween there.
- Which then lead me to, wait a second? Why don't I look more closely at the cabins? Dues are silly high, but isn't the assumption that it will be wrapped into LSL, which will help spread that out? And also, wouldn't we have 11 mo. priority there too if that's the case? Or do I not understand how the trust might work? I could do a fixed week Halloween, when they're available again, then not use it and just book what I need (we don't stay more than 3-4 days for Halloween currently) until we decide to go for a week. We could sell our trojan horse of a trailer (she's sooo ugly on the outside, but inside is amazing) and use that money towards the purchase.
- Or should I just buy more SAP for now since we're so close/flexible with travel?
- I don't like the idea of being locked out of future properties, and worry that they will increase the points required for blue card before we decide to jump in. No one knows where things will be when LSL comes online, but I don't think I want to wait for it to buy direct, if we decide to do it. It doesn't save us on APs, so we're only getting an extra 10% on dining, lounge access, and future resort access.
- I know a lot will depend on how our stay goes at RIV, but it's 3 months out and I'm not a patient person. I also know that if we love RIV we can always just by restricted resale. We could actually do that for any future restricted resorts we like, just wait a few years until people start ditching their contracts.
- I'm hoping summer incentives are better, I think if they had a great sale it could sway us. I sort of regret not getting in on the OKW deal, but we've never stayed there and haven't wanted to.

Well, that was a lot. I know there's no one answer, which is why I struggle with things like this. I always like to feel like I"m making the best decision given the options, and DVC purchases don't really work that way. So give me your thoughts/recommendations please. Just don't tell me I need medication.

 

[JackosinDIS]

The problem here is too much choice!

If you have an urge for direct points, I wait until you have stayed at RIV and then decide. Whichever resort you go with the points will land in your account at around the same time as resale points would if you started looking now.

My personal choice would be Poly direct, although I think you are a Feb UY so not an ideal time to buy as you will miss the 2024 points.

 

[disneylandtour]

I wouldn't depend on LSL and the cabins joining up. I believe it will probably happen. But I wouldn't buy there until it was for sure. The cabins have undersold to the point where I think that DVD must be looking at their options--some of which likely point toward spinning of a lot of what is left to cash room.

Beyond that, it sounds like you're still exploring DVC, which is great. Honestly, what I'd do is this: buy a resale SAP contract. SSR is still cheap. BLT is nicer and has a longer expiration date. Both have low dues. Then, at some point in the future, if you did find your perfect home resort (maybe LSL), a 100-150 pt resale contract for SSR or BLT is easy to flip. Side note: with the refurb and with new themed lands going into MK, I expect BLT resale prices to rise; I expect SSR resale to slowly go down. But I'd go inexpensive as you look around. And also, even for a few years, you're probably better off holding a resale contract and then flipping compared to renting points for three years.

 

[We’reAllMadHere]

I wouldn’t choose Poly direct if you only want 1 bedrooms. All the original Poly rooms are studios. Of course you could get two studios instead but that might be problematic with younger kids.

 

[jolynne28]

The problem here is too much choice!

If you have an urge for direct points, I wait until you have stayed at RIV and then decide. Whichever resort you go with the points will land in your account at around the same time as resale points would if you started looking now.

My personal choice would be Poly direct, although I think you are a Feb UY so not an ideal time to buy as you will miss the 2024 points.

Yep, too much choice can be such a burden!

We have 2 use years, Oct and Feb. So I could technically do either. However, Feb is best for our summer trips, and Oct for the add ons during the school year since the banking window is May 31st. Most of my points are already in October, so I was looking for February.

If I thought I could get RIV direct at a decent price I'd probably opt for that. But you're right, we can't really make a decision on that until we stay there.

 

[Mle8308]

I wouldn't depend on LSL and the cabins joining up. I believe it will probably happen. But I wouldn't buy there until it was for sure. The cabins have undersold to the point where I think that DVD must be looking at their options--some of which likely point toward spinning of a lot of what is left to cash room.

Beyond that, it sounds like you're still exploring DVC, which is great. Honestly, what I'd do is this: buy a resale SAP contract. SSR is still cheap. BLT is nicer and has a longer expiration date. Both have low dues. Then, at some point in the future, if you did find your perfect home resort (maybe LSL), a 100-150 pt resale contract for SSR or BLT is easy to flip. Side note: with the refurb and with new themed lands going into MK, I expect BLT resale prices to rise; I expect SSR resale to slowly go down. But I'd go inexpensive as you look around. And also, even for a few years, you're probably better off holding a resale contract and then flipping compared to renting points for three years.

They already have 150 resale points at SSR and 50 at BWV. I agree with the other poster who said to wait to stay at RIV before buying direct, as they said, it would take almost the same amount of time to buy a resale contract as it would be to buy direct after they stay. And I strongly believe CFW and LSL will be the same association, only makes sense. That's why we're not seeing any big promotions to sell the cabins. But that is just my opinion.

 

[jolynne28]

I wouldn't depend on LSL and the cabins joining up. I believe it will probably happen. But I wouldn't buy there until it was for sure. The cabins have undersold to the point where I think that DVD must be looking at their options--some of which likely point toward spinning of a lot of what is left to cash room.

Beyond that, it sounds like you're still exploring DVC, which is great. Honestly, what I'd do is this: buy a resale SAP contract. SSR is still cheap. BLT is nicer and has a longer expiration date. Both have low dues. Then, at some point in the future, if you did find your perfect home resort (maybe LSL), a 100-150 pt resale contract for SSR or BLT is easy to flip. Side note: with the refurb and with new themed lands going into MK, I expect BLT resale prices to rise; I expect SSR resale to slowly go down. But I'd go inexpensive as you look around. And also, even for a few years, you're probably better off holding a resale contract and then flipping compared to renting points for three years.

You mean on top of the one I already have? We've stayed everywhere OG but BLT and OKW on our SAP, so we have a pretty good idea of what we like. I'll probably book a quick trip at BLT once the refurb is more complete, but I don't think we'll ever buy there. I might be in the minority here, but I watched a tour online of the refurbed rooms and wasn't impressed. It just isn't our vibe.

 

[Genie+]

Haha, I am on the same page with you. It’s not easy choosing!

It makes sense to seriously consider direct, since you seem to be in it for the long haul and visiting more than once per year. Access to restricted resort trading will up your 7 month trading game. Visiting more frequently gives you more opportunities to make use of perks too.

If you really love the convenience and resort clustering of BWV, Poly may be the way to go. While the walk to MK is long - it has 4 other options (Resort boat, Resort monorail, Ferry, Express monorail), and it’s also very convenient and FUN taking the Epcot monorail. Poly has great resort options along with easy access to VGF and Contemporary.

There are unique pros and cons to most of DVC. I’d probably keep my eye on Direct for incentives on CFW, RIV, PVB and LSL details. I think you’ll know it when you see it, where a price is released that works with the balance of pros/cons for your individual game plans. At least that’s how we decided VGF and direct. I didn’t love the point chart but everything else made up for that one point. Same thing with BWV resale, I didn’t love the buyin $pp for short contract but everything else made up for that.

 

[jolynne28]

I wouldn’t choose Poly direct if you only want 1 bedrooms. All the original Poly rooms are studios. Of course you could get two studios instead but that might be problematic with younger kids.

It's not that we only want 1 bedrooms. We do studios often right now. But the tower only sleeps 5 starting at 1 BR, which is a lot of points. We've done the longhouses before, didn't love it. But again, when we're using SAP we take what we can get.

 

[jolynne28]

They already have 150 resale points at SSR and 50 at BWV. I agree with the other poster who said to wait to stay at RIV before buying direct, as they said, it would take almost the same amount of time to buy a resale contract as it would be to buy direct after they stay. And I strongly believe CFW and LSL will be the same association, only makes sense. That's why we're not seeing any big promotions to sell the cabins. But that is just my opinion.

I agree, I can't imagine they're not the same. I was thinking though, the fort is on lockdown for Halloween. How can they possible keep everyone staying at LSL out during that time? It would be complete madness to have all those extra people, it's crazy busy just from the campsites.

 

[intamin]

I'd wait until your RIV stay to make a decision. Like was said above I wouldn't buy into CFW until I absolutely knew that LSL was attached to it. It's pretty likely but I wouldn't gamble a 40 plus year decision on it. I could've bought PVB resale at a cheaper rate before they announced it would be the same assication and I don't regret it because I absolutely wanted to know that it was part of the same association. Sure I'm sad I don't get as much of a discount but what would've been worse is buying in there and then finding out my points aren't eligible there.

I'm having the same internal struggle with Poly and it's high point chart which is why I think now I'm leaning toward an every other year Poly stay and then resale BLT for the other year. We like both. I like the theming at Poly and it's proximity to TTC. But I also like the unbeatable location of BLT next to MK and cheap point charts.

RIVs charts in comparison seem like a bargain next to Poly. If you want an Epcot area resort that lasts past 2042 it's a great option. If you want an MK resort though and want it direct I'd go with Poly.

 

[Tatebeck]

I would try RIV, then decide if I wanted direct RIV points or more resale BWV/BCV.

I made the "mistake" of staying at the crescent lake resorts the first 2 times I went while paying cash so I knew I would need a lot of my points in the area.

I would advise against more SSR SAP if you don't like staying there, unless you plan on selling it again in 5 or 10 years. I personally feel that SSR SAPs are a short term solution but will turn into a long term problem

 

[We’reAllMadHere]

It's not that we only want 1 bedrooms. We do studios often right now. But the tower only sleeps 5 starting at 1 BR, which is a lot of points. We've done the longhouses before, didn't love it. But again, when we're using SAP we take what we can get.

Gotcha. But as your kids get bigger, it seems like fitting 5 in a studio is going to get rough.

 

[jolynne28]

Haha, I am on the same page with you. It’s not easy choosing!

It makes sense to seriously consider direct, since you seem to be in it for the long haul and visiting more than once per year. Access to restricted resort trading will up your 7 month trading game. Visiting more frequently gives you more opportunities to make use of perks too.

If you really love the convenience and resort clustering of BWV, Poly may be the way to go. While the walk to MK is long - it has 4 other options (Resort boat, Resort monorail, Ferry, Express monorail), and it’s also very convenient and FUN taking the Epcot monorail. Poly has great resort options along with easy access to VGF and Contemporary.

There are unique pros and cons to most of DVC. I’d probably keep my eye on Direct for incentives on CFW, RIV, PVB and LSL details. I think you’ll know it when you see it, where a price is released that works with the balance of pros/cons for your individual game plans. At least that’s how we decided VGF and direct. I didn’t love the point chart but everything else made up for that one point. Same thing with BWV resale, I didn’t love the buyin $pp for short contract but everything else made up for that.

We are staying at VGF early April for my daughter's birthday. We decided we'd check out the new tower on that trip since we can't get into the parks on the weekends. I really do want to love the monorail resorts, but we've just never enjoyed them as much as Crescent Lake. MK is such a PITA to get to though if you aren't right there.
We love WL, but CCV is a non starter b/c we only fit in 2 BR. BRV is nice, but we probably shouldn't buy another 2042. The boat ride can be annoying too, but it's better than taking a bus.

 

[jolynne28]

Gotcha. But as your kids get bigger, it seems like fitting 5 in a studio is going to get rough.

Right, that's why we're looking at adding on. But Poly tower points for 1 and 2 BR are so much higher than other resorts, which is why we're turned off by it.

 

[jolynne28]

I would try RIV, then decide if I wanted direct RIV points or more resale BWV/BCV.

I made the "mistake" of staying at the crescent lake resorts the first 2 times I went while paying cash so I knew I would need a lot of my points in the area.

I would advise against more SSR SAP if you don't like staying there, unless you plan on selling it again in 5 or 10 years. I personally feel that SSR SAPs are a short term solution but will turn into a long term problem

Tell me why you think it's a long term problem. Is it b/c when 2042s drop off there will be less options for SAP? The rooms at SSR are actually really well done. But transportation is not fun, multiple bus stops kills it for us. We would probably only bus to MK from there, and drive to all the other parks. But yes, we primarily use SSR for SAP.

 

[Tatebeck]

Tell me why you think it's a long term problem. Is it b/c when 2042s drop off there will be less options for SAP? The rooms at SSR are actually really well done. But transportation is not fun, multiple bus stops kills it for us. We would probably only bus to MK from there, and drive to all the other parks. But yes, we primarily use SSR for SAP.

It is a combination of the 2042 problem and the appeal that SSR seems to always have as the cheapest or best SAP.

The more members that buy SSR specifically looking to use them as SAP (and never actually stay there), the more stress it puts on the 7 month booking at the other original resorts. For each new contract bought for this SAP purpose, booking at SSR likely becomes easier, but booking 7 months at any other resort becomes harder and more competitive. If you love SSR, a contract there would probably mean easy booking from now until expiration.

But as the number of SAP members grow, if/when the owners at other resorts notice that they cannot ever seem to get anything good at 7 months, more members may be driven to planning further ahead and booking in the 7-11 month window at their home resort to make sure they have a room they like. This would further reduce the rooms available at 7 months and also make booking anything besides SSR with those SSR SAP points even harder.

Then, in 2042, many of the original resorts will close. There will be far fewer options for those owning resale SSR (and resale at other original resorts too) to trade their points out at. But all of those SSR SAP points will still be there, still looking to book at the remaining resorts. It will most likely be a major bottleneck for those SAP owners. They will either have to be okay with staying at SSR at that point or sell their contracts, and a glut of sellers all at once may drop the resale value significantly for those owners as well. Just seems like a ticking time bomb to me because of these (likely to me) possibilities.

This is why I didn't buy SAP but SAP+ (points that I would use at my home resort often, but that I can still use to stay at other resorts when available)

 

[ShaneDJ]

You will love the RIV.

 

[atthebeachclub]

It is a combination of the 2042 problem and the appeal that SSR seems to always have as the cheapest or best SAP.

The more members that buy SSR specifically looking to use them as SAP (and never actually stay there), the more stress it puts on the 7 month booking at the other original resorts. For each new contract bought for this SAP purpose, booking at SSR likely becomes easier, but booking 7 months at any other resort becomes harder and more competitive. If you love SSR, a contract there would probably mean easy booking from now until expiration.

But as the number of SAP members grow, if/when the owners at other resorts notice that they cannot ever seem to get anything good at 7 months, more members may be driven to planning further ahead and booking in the 7-11 month window at their home resort to make sure they have a room they like. This would reduce the rooms available at 7 months and also make booking anything besides SSR with those SSR SAP points even harder.

Then, in 2042, many of the original resorts will close. There will be far fewer options for those owning resale SSR (and resale at other original resorts too) to trade their points out at. But all of those SSR SAP points will still be there, still looking to book at the remaining resorts. It will most likely be a major bottleneck for those SAP owners. They will either have to be okay with staying at SSR at that point or sell their contracts, and a glut of sellers all at once may drop the resale value significantly for those owners as well. Just seems like a ticking time bomb to me because of these (likely to me) possibilities.

This is why I didn't buy SAP but SAP+ (points that I would use at my home resort often, but that I can still use to stay at other resorts when available)

This was also my reasoning.

 

[intamin]

It is a combination of the 2042 problem and the appeal that SSR seems to always have as the cheapest or best SAP.

The more members that buy SSR specifically looking to use them as SAP (and never actually stay there), the more stress it puts on the 7 month booking at the other original resorts. For each new contract bought for this SAP purpose, booking at SSR likely becomes easier, but booking 7 months at any other resort becomes harder and more competitive. If you love SSR, a contract there would probably mean easy booking from now until expiration.

But as the number of SAP members grow, if/when the owners at other resorts notice that they cannot ever seem to get anything good at 7 months, more members may be driven to planning further ahead and booking in the 7-11 month window at their home resort to make sure they have a room they like. This would further reduce the rooms available at 7 months and also make booking anything besides SSR with those SSR SAP points even harder.

Then, in 2042, many of the original resorts will close. There will be far fewer options for those owning resale SSR (and resale at other original resorts too) to trade their points out at. But all of those SSR SAP points will still be there, still looking to book at the remaining resorts. It will most likely be a major bottleneck for those SAP owners. They will either have to be okay with staying at SSR at that point or sell their contracts, and a glut of sellers all at once may drop the resale value significantly for those owners as well. Just seems like a ticking time bomb to me because of these (likely to me) possibilities.

This is why I didn't buy SAP but SAP+ (points that I would use at my home resort often, but that I can still use to stay at other resorts when available)

Agreed, this is why I always recommend SAP+ over pure SAP. Sure the 2042 resorts at WDW never really had that much inventory, but they were also actually desirable locations to book for people who owned other valuable resorts. Especially the Crescent Lake area. Like I have no problems booking BCV/BWV with my RIV points but I sure as hell am not going to book SSR or OKW with them if I can help it. With those resorts going offline, if I'm a PVB or VGF owner, why would I let go of my home resort priority and swap? There's going to be less movement at 7 months especially with resale restrictions in place. I'd only recommend buying SSR if you truly are okay with staying there. I mean SSR is fantastic, especially Congress Park and the Springs, but if it's not for you and you own it, I'd consider swapping it for something else sooner rather than later.