Another view on FP+

[clsteve]

Ah, the +10.

Didn't the +10 already cause problems with things like BOG? I imagine for something with incredibly low supply like A&E, which may only handle 1000 FP, this could be a problem. For a typical ride capable of 20,000 guests this shouldn't be an issue.

So is that the case that ppl are finding no A&E availability at 60 cuz others are snagging them at 61-69? Is there any attraction save for A&E / C&R for which this is currently a problem?

True. You're just moving the rush. But, Disney can now control the rush a bit more this way too. As FP+ evolves, they may meter out the FP. Instead of making all 1000 available on that 69th day, make 50 available every day for 20 days. They have options that they will explore, for sure.

You're thinking linearly, again, in the first quote.......

The math of allocation and ride capacity now needs to go bye bye.

Disney didn't spend 1-2 billion on MM+ just to hand out FP ressies based on next available time (linear). They spent it on the business rules "behind the curtain." Getting guests locked in and providing yield and capacity management cannot be achieved by linear FP distribution.

That's why there's an auto select feature
That's why it's hard to make changes
That's why you get different selections it you do 1 or 2 versus 4 people in your party
That's why you have to pick 3
That's why no park-hopping
That's why it has taken so long​

Which is why it's becoming apparent that all of the math discussions we've had previously are now immaterial. It's now about business rules we have no visibility into. We don't know how they're "presenting" FP ressies to each guest-type (and when).

Your 2nd quote is more where the discussion needs to move but it is still looking at only one ride. Nothing about this is going to be about just one FP anymore- it's the inter-relationship between the 3.

 

[sonofanarchy]

The numbers that were out there was that only about 50% af all parks guests utilized FP- at all. And for the 50% that did use FP-, on average they used only 2 per day.

I believe it also was stated that Disney hopes FP+ utilization to be in the 85% range.

This is what I don't get. If people weren't using it - So what? That's their loss. So they punish everybody because of it.

Sorry - I know many people don't like the idea of being charged for using Fastpass, but I don't see how else this mess gets solved. Now with offsiters getting earlier access to it, that means even less ride times available.

 

[morethananyonex]

My bad. Thought we were talking about late sleepers.

FTR, I think FP was under-utilized before and it will be under-utilized in the future. If you didn't use it when it was right there, you won't use it 60 days out. You'll mean to get around to it, but probably won't.

I disagree that it will be under utilized in the future. Numbers we're hearing have already shown that Disney has gotten a greater number of guests onboard the FP+ train. If we believe the numbers to be true, they've increased utilization from 50% of guests to 90% that's huge.

I know I got bombarded with e-mails to make my FP+ selections (and no e-mails about the monorail shutdown ) from a few days before my 60 day window opened until we checked in. They are pushing FP+ much harder than FP- was ever pushed. The information was always there, but Disney wasn't urging people to use it in the same way.

Most guests simply did not use FP-. I know that sounds crazy, but it's true. That's why so many of us were able to get 6-7 rides in a day -- cuz most ppl did not use it. Most guests just go "look - a ride - let's go". Not "look a ride-- wait -- there is a kiosk over here let's go evaluate it" I know that is so crazy to a FP person, but go read that other thread where the "typical tourer" spoke up, and you see just how many ppl responded like him.

FP- was a system we, the gurus, used to get around the normal people and go ahead of them.

Now FP+ is on your phone, and even the typical tourer has a smartphone and if they can handle a game like Angry Birds, they can handle picking some rides.

Ppl arriving w/o any touring knowledge are not to be pitied. Remember it's vacation. Ppl arrived at DW and vacation spots all around the world for many years before the internet even existed. It is *not* a requirement to be an avid planner / disboard junkie to have a good time at Disney World. I'll bet most ppl that never even heard of the disboards have just as magical a time as anyone else.

I don't know why you're assuming I don't know all that you said, I do. I know the numbers and why FP- was able to work for so many of us in ways that FP+ simply cannot. I'm not arguing that FP+ isn't going to bring more people over to the FP side of things. What I'm saying is many people in favour of FP+ have argued it's a better system because the clued out guests now have a fighting chance. Well, they don't, still not for the good stuff. Clued out guests aren't getting Anna & Elsa, clued out guests aren't getting TSMM, clued out guests aren't getting 7DMT, clued out guests don't know not to use a FP+ for Philharmagic, clued out guests don't know which tier 1 rides are most valuable, clued out guests don't know the value in booking FP+ before they enter the park.

Personally, I think that's fine, just like I thought it was fine before. Whoever puts effort in should be rewarded. All I'm saying is, there are lots of people who argue in favour of fairness, when what they really mean is better for themselves. If someone struggled with FP- they are completely screwed with FP+. If they refused to learn how the FP- system worked, they're not going to figure out how to grab an Anna and Elsa FP. A system that requires as much effort as FP+ does to get the most out of it (and luck with IT) cannot be more fair than FP-, which required guests to arrive early enough to use, nothing more.

FP+ is more in your face, and that's Disney's doing. I'm not convinced that FP- wouldn't have seen a huge jump in usage if Disney had pushed it the same way.

 

[MrInfinity]

Ahhh. But there's the rub. You don't need to choose "either/or". It can be (and is) both. If 20,000 people a day can get a FP+ for 7DMT and 60,000 people are going to go the MK that day, all you need is for 20,000 to be the latter and set the alarm and wipe out all the FPs for the entire day. So 40,000 people show up who are novices and get shut out of a major ride. Under FP-, the only thing the novice needed to do to get on that major ride was to show up in the first hour of park operation and observe where all the people were headed and observe people walking up to those machines that looked like ATMs. So you will now have both of your scenarios running in synch, which are "morning apocaypse" and "clueless shout-outs". You had both before as well, but at least the clueless shut-outs had the opportunity to evolve during the course of their vacation and become cognescenti. That can't happen now. This is exactly the point being made by morethannyonex. People who think that the playing field has been leveled and that Dis'ers and researchers are no longer at an advantage just aren't reading the cards very well. The more complex you make the maze, the fewer mice will reach the cheese.

The SDMT is not a good example to use to say if FP+ is good or bad, because I can't think of ANY system that could accommodate this. There's no way. 20,000 ridings, 60,000 visitors. You don't want to give them to rope droppers, or you have yourself 20,000 ppl camping out over night. Or do you give tickets? How early do you have to come to get a ticket? The day before? Why not let them get tickets online a month before -- no wait let's go to 60 days before. Oh look that's FP+. So nothing between picking your tickets far in advance (FP+) to having ppl clamor for a line-spot day of (rope drop / camp-outs) would suffice.

It is the biggest thing to hit any theme park -- ever. 30 years without a new tier-1 ride at the world's flagship theme park is absolutely insane.

Short of building 3 mine trains, no system can get 60,000 guests onto a ride that handles 20,000 in a day.

So you need to create a line somewhere. Whether it's the night before at the park or 60 days before, you're going to give SOMEONE an advantage. I believe Disney will be best off giving that advantage to it's highest paying and most coveted customers -- the resort guest. Via the 60-day thing. Somebody has to lose out, and I think it'll be the locals who can only pick day-of. Because these locals can go on an arbitrary evening at 8:30pm, get in line, and stay till 11 or whatever it takes to get on -- there is no need to prioritize them over the ppl who are spending $700 for a single day in the park. Just my opinion on where Dis is going w this.

 

[sonofanarchy]

FP+ is more in your face, and that's Disney's doing. I'm not convinced that FP- wouldn't have seen a huge jump in usage if Disney had pushed it the same way.

And this is the exact basis of my whole point. In going to a new way of distributing Fastpass, why did they have to limit it so much? How is that better for us as the guest?

In all these threads, I have yet to see one response that, no pun intended, universally answers that question.

 

[morethananyonex]

And this is the exact basis of my whole point. In going to a new way of distributing Fastpass, why did they have to limit it so much? How is that better for us as the guest?

In all these threads, I have yet to see one response that, no pun intended, universally answers that question.

It's not better for the guest, because that's never what it was about. It's better for certain guests sure, but that's just a side effect of Disney making a decision that is better for them.

The only reason Disney cares FP- was disproportionately used is because they need as many people as they can to use FP+ in order to lock them into their schedules.

 

[MrInfinity]

I don't know why you're assuming I don't know all that you said, I do. I know the numbers and why FP- was able to work for so many of us in ways that FP+ simply cannot. I'm not arguing that FP+ isn't going to bring more people over to the FP side of things.

OK

What I'm saying is many people in favour of FP+ have argued it's a better system because the clued out guests now have a fighting chance.

This is sensationalizing. You're making it out to be good vs evil... when really, it is as simple as Disney has a set # of ridings in a day their customers can consume. They can have a few guests consume most of the rides, or, they found, by allowing most guests to consume just a few rides, most guests will spend more, leave the park sooner, and they can fit yet more guests into the park. Period. It's not us vs them. You may not end up paying more. Many guests will not end up spending more. But many WILL.

Clued out guests aren't getting Anna & Elsa,

I agree!

I'm a clued-in guest. I wanted A&E, I booked them they day they opened. I wanted the SW Breakfast, I booked it the day it opened. This is not difficult. You want something that is RARE, you do your homework and secure it.

But besides A&E, SDMT, the SW Meals, and BOG, there aren't a whole lot of other rare things at WDW. Pretty much most other guests can get most other features. Maybe pre-open CRT spots are rare.

With FP+, most guests can enjoy all the common rides, and be assured of getting on 3 of them fast.

Whoever puts effort in should be rewarded.

And, we are. I am, at least. I'm sitting on my SW Breakfast and I absolutely love it. If I didn't know about it and showed up day-of and couldn't get it would I be devastated? No. I'd have other plans and move on.

If someone struggled with FP- they are completely screwed with FP+.

See I don't agree here. FP+ is so much more attractive of a thing to use. It's an app on your phone -- and you can pick rides -- it has such a high success because it is so easy to use and everyone is prone to installing the app.

FP+ is more in your face, and that's Disney's doing. I'm not convinced that FP- wouldn't have seen a huge jump in usage if Disney had pushed it the same way.

True but FP+ is more than a "heavier used FP-". It has so many other benefits to Disney like the increased spending, capacity, crowd management, control over who gets them, and so on.

 

[iheartjuppy]

Which is why you will still see the throw away room booked, imo. Actually, I would even be tempted by this. Book a room, get your MBs mailed to you, pick your FPs and then 30 days out, cancel your room. Actually, you could make a ressie for a week that way. Wouldn't cost you a dime.

hmmmm...Disney might have to do something about that loophole. What, I don't know. But if my trip was more than 2 months away, I would be tempted.

Cancel your room reservation & your FP+ reservations are canceled with them. I would bet that pre-shipping of MBs will also go away soon and you will be able to customize but pick them up at resort check-in, otherwise even WITHOUT the FP+ issue, people will book rooms, get the MBs shipped, and cancel the room just to save the $13/pp for the bands.

 

[OtherScott]

Ahhh. But there's the rub. You don't need to choose "either/or". It can be (and is) both. If 20,000 people a day can get a FP+ for 7DMT and 60,000 people are going to go the MK that day, all you need is for 20,000 to be the latter and set the alarm and wipe out all the FPs for the entire day. So 40,000 people show up who are novices and get shut out of a major ride. Under FP-, the only thing the novice needed to do to get on that major ride was to show up in the first hour of park operation and observe where all the people were headed and observe people walking up to those machines that looked like ATMs. So you will now have both of your scenarios running in synch, which are "morning apocaypse" and "clueless shut-outs". You had both before as well, but at least the clueless shut-outs had the opportunity to evolve during the course of their vacation and become cognescenti. That can't happen now. This is exactly the point being made by morethannyonex. People who think that the playing field has been leveled and that Dis'ers and researchers are no longer at an advantage just aren't reading the cards very well. The more complex you make the maze, the fewer mice will reach the cheese.

Of course it's not either/or. Never has been, but we use shorthand around here for convenience.

I'd suggest that a novice would assume he could show up at some point within the first few hours and be able to ride. I don't think the novice is contemplating capacity at all.

 

[Ismo]

Sorry if I missed the boat on this...

I get the whole 60 days out thing, we are anxiously awaiting that day ourselves.

But I'm a little confused on the what the "+10" means.

Can someone explain?

Thanks.

 

[MrInfinity]

Sorry if I missed the boat on this...

I get the whole 60 days out thing, we are anxiously awaiting that day ourselves.

But I'm a little confused on the what the "+10" means.

Can someone explain?

Thanks.

At 60 days from your arrival you can book your FP's 10 days into your trip. Thus something like A&E which only has 1000'ish FP's could conceivably be gone even if you get on right in the morning of your 60 day window, cuz ppl arriving up to 10 days before you have already been able to book the days you might want. This is only applicable to things that have particularly low supply like the A&E M&G.

 

[OtherScott]

"FP+ stinks because newbies will behind the learning curve until game day, when it's too late to adjust."

simultaneously

"Disney has taken usage from 50% to 90%" and "I'm getting bombarded with emails reminding me to prebook"

 

[MrInfinity]

"FP+ stinks because newbies will behind the learning curve until game day, when it's too late to adjust."

simultaneously

"Disney has taken usage from 50% to 90%" and "I'm getting bombarded with emails reminding me to prebook"

 

[OtherScott]

You're thinking linearly, again, in the first quote....... The math of allocation and ride capacity now needs to go bye bye. Disney didn't spend 1-2 billion on MM+ just to hand out FP ressies based on next available time (linear). They spent it on the business rules "behind the curtain." Getting guests locked in and providing yield and capacity management cannot be achieved by linear FP distribution. That's why there's an auto select feature That's why it's hard to make changes That's why you get different selections it you do 1 or 2 versus 4 people in your party That's why you have to pick 3 That's why no park-hopping That's why it has taken so long Which is why it's becoming apparent that all of the math discussions we've had previously are now immaterial. It's now about business rules we have no visibility into. We don't know how they're "presenting" FP ressies to each guest-type (and when). Your 2nd quote is more where the discussion needs to move but it is still looking at only one ride. Nothing about this is going to be about just one FP anymore- it's the inter-relationship between the 3.

Steve, back to an earlier point about onsite rooms yielding $257 per night revenue. Was there any discussion in the thread you referred to where the per day cost of the same? I can't open that report on iPad for some reason.

 

[JimmyV]

I'm a clued-in guest. I wanted A&E, I booked them they day they opened. I wanted the SW Breakfast, I booked it the day it opened. This is not difficult. You want something that is RARE, you do your homework and secure it.

Isn't this the argument in favor of FP-? The people who did their homework, put in the hours, got to the park and secured their Fast Passes were as vigilant and diligent as you are now. But they are accused* of "gaming the system", "cheating", "depriving others" and ruining the experience for everyone else.

*Not by you. But by others.

 

[morethananyonex]

"FP+ stinks because newbies will behind the learning curve until game day, when it's too late to adjust."

simultaneously

"Disney has taken usage from 50% to 90%" and "I'm getting bombarded with emails reminding me to prebook"

Not what I said at all.

FP+ is no better for clued out guests than FP- was. FP+ has a much higher learning curve in order to get the good stuff, and FP+ doesn't reset every night like FP- did. I'm simply questioning the logic of people who claim FP+ is here to save the unaware guest from the meanies who used FP-.

Awareness of the system and even usage of the system is not the same as being aware of how to use the system to the fullest. Disney isn't sending out e-mails with that info. A clued out guest is worse off with FP+, because if they decide to learn how to use it when they arrive, too bad so sad, the most popular of the FP are gone. If they decided how to use FP- when they arrived, their opportunity reset every night.

 

[OtherScott]

I think we are in hyper attentive mode right now, probably like what existed when legacy FP was introduced.

This will subside, except for extreme cases.

Human nature will win out, procrastination will set in, and life will intrude.

IMO

 

[morethananyonex]

Isn't this the argument in favor of FP-? The people who did their homework, put in the hours, got to the park and secured their Fast Passes were as vigilant and diligent as you are now. But they are accused* of "gaming the system", "cheating", "depriving others" and ruining the experience for everyone else.

*Not by you. But by others.

My posts keep getting eaten, but this is exactly what I was getting at, Fuzzy.

The system isn't more fair, the homework changed, the hours put in shifted, but people without the drive to learn it still are not getting the rare experiences. People love to use TSMM to illustrate how awesome FP+ is, and how it's become more fair. It has a limited number of riders per day, FP+ doesn't suddenly give everyone a ride, FP+ just changed when and where the stampede to the machines takes place and who is getting their hands on the coveted FP.

 

[JimmyV]

"FP+ stinks because newbies will behind the learning curve until game day, when it's too late to adjust."

simultaneously

"Disney has taken usage from 50% to 90%" and "I'm getting bombarded with emails reminding me to prebook"

Be careful not to conflate 90% usage during the slow roll-out months with 90% usage during the busy Spring Break season.

Before: 50% used FP- and got passes for Test Track and Soarin'.
Now: 90% use FP+ and half of those people are getting passes for Maelstrom, EO and Living With the Land.

That 90% figure looks impressive. But if half of that 90% are getting same day passes for "C" level attractions that don't require a FP, is the system benefitting them? Remember. Soarin' FPs used to sell out under FP- and they are selling out under FP+. The system is doling out the same number of FPs. So if total usage is climbing from 50% to 90%, it isn't because more people are getting Soarin' passes. It is because a lot of people are getting junk FPs.

 

[OtherScott]

Not what I said at all. FP+ is no better for clued out guests than FP- was. FP+ has a much higher learning curve in order to get the good stuff, and FP+ doesn't reset every night like FP- did. I'm simply questioning the logic of people who claim FP+ is here to save the unaware guest from the meanies who used FP-. Awareness of the system and even usage of the system is not the same as being aware of how to use the system to the fullest. Disney isn't sending out e-mails with that info. A clued out guest is worse off with FP+, because if they decide to learn how to use it when they arrive, too bad so sad, the most popular of the FP are gone. If they decided how to use FP- when they arrived, their opportunity reset every night.

If you take a 50% participation rate to 90% despite a higher learning curve?

Using it to the fullest is a tall order. Newbies stumbling onto this inside the park, then using it to bring the total to 50%, certainly weren't using it to the fullest. Picking 3 rides on the day you want them, at times you want them, 30-60 days out is the definition of using this to the fullest.

And remember, the 90% doesn't include the millions who've burned Iger in effigy while swearing off ever returning.