Another "If, Then, When, What" thread- VDH direct, VGC Resale or neither?

[Chili327]

wouldn’t a rejected offer by definition still be on the market?

Semantics.

 

[VGCgroupie]

wouldn’t a rejected offer by definition still be on the market?

Since no specifics are given it’s okay I’m guessing. There many contracts that appear the same across multiple brokers. Anyhow I don’t wanna be the reason that thread gets removed so I’ll

 

[Sandisw]

wouldn’t a rejected offer by definition still be on the market?

Yes and technically is a thread that we might be closing if people began to give too much info. I monitor it closely.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes and technically is a thread that we might be closing if people began to give too much info. I monitor it closely.

Yes, we definitely don’t want the boards flooded with brokers and sellers spamming threads with hundreds of contracts…. but it seems so far everything has been above board and it is a useful thread to see the offers that are getting rejected. The ROFR thread can sometimes set an unrealistic expectation.

 

[Denise0362]

Definitely NOT wrong.
If it’s not perfect, there is no reason to buy VGC direct.


All of this.

Except for the fact you could not use VGC resale points for a stay at VDH, which would have more availability for reservations less than 11 months.

 

[nalababybear]

Execpt for the fact you could not use VGC resale points for a stay at VDH, which would have more availability for reservations less than 11 months.

No way I would use vgc points for vdh. Would bank or rent them.

 

[Chili327]

Except for the fact you could not use VGC resale points for a stay at VDH, which would have more availability for reservations less than 11 months.

And very slim chance you can use VDH points at VGC, especially under 7 months.

 

[Denise0362]

And very slim chance you can use VDH points at VGC, especially under 7 months.

That's why I own at both resorts. I live in Colorado and when I want to go Disneyland I don't always want to have to plan 11 months in advance. My heart will always be at VGC, but both resorts have their own charm.

 

[AstroBlasters]

That's why I own at both resorts. I live in Colorado and when I want to go Disneyland I don't always want to have to plan 11 months in advance. My heart will always be at VGC, but both resorts have their own charm.

It is definitely nice to have two options.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

That's why I own at both resorts. I live in Colorado and when I want to go Disneyland I don't always want to have to plan 11 months in advance. My heart will always be at VGC, but both resorts have their own charm.

I think it makes sense for a lot of families, but over the long term, I think booking at VDH at 9 or 10 months could be even more challenging than booking at VGC, because a very large chunk of the total points will be resale, locked into VDH, and they will all be scrambling against each other (especially the ones in years that are banked/borrowed). That is probably not a problem for at least another 5-10 years though.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I think it makes sense for a lot of families, but over the long term, I think booking at VDH at 9 or 10 months could be even more challenging than booking at VGC, because a very large chunk of the total points will be resale, locked into VDH, and they will all be scrambling against each other (especially the ones in years that are banked/borrowed). That is probably not a problem for at least another 5-10 years though.

I never thought about this. It makes a lot of sense

 

[Chili327]

I never thought about this. It makes a lot of sense

Yep, the restrictions are really going to change the face of DVC in the next decade.
I just keep thinking they are devaluing their product, but their chalkboard might show otherwise.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Yep, the restrictions are really going to change the face of DVC in the next decade.
I just keep thinking they are devaluing their product, but their chalkboard might show otherwise.

I don’t think they care as long as they can sell about 2 million points a year to people direct. I hope I’m wrong…but as someone who bought AUL direct on a cruise last year, I’m part of the problem.

I’m trying to hold the line on not buying direct on places with resale restrictions, but if they did OKWe level incentive pricing on VDH or RIV I would probably cave (I don’t expect this to happen absent economic emergency, but I am curious to see what happens to RIV sales when PVB comes back online.)

 

[Denise0362]

I think it makes sense for a lot of families, but over the long term, I think booking at VDH at 9 or 10 months could be even more challenging than booking at VGC, because a very large chunk of the total points will be resale, locked into VDH, and they will all be scrambling against each other (especially the ones in years that are banked/borrowed). That is probably not a problem for at least another 5-10 years though.

Yes, you are most likely correct. But, would they be locked into only VDH? Currently, resale can be used at 7 months at any resort with the exception of Aulani, VDH, Rivera and any new resorts going forward?

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I think it makes sense for a lot of families, but over the long term, I think booking at VDH at 9 or 10 months could be even more challenging than booking at VGC, because a very large chunk of the total points will be resale, locked into VDH, and they will all be scrambling against each other (especially the ones in years that are banked/borrowed). That is probably not a problem for at least another 5-10 years though.

I don’t know if I agree that it will be a very large chunk, not for a long while, maybe 20-30ish years, but I see your point.

Apologies for derailing the plot here, I’m going to take the devils advocate position for a minute cause I’ve been having a think (that never bodes well for me)... Don’t we think that direct owners will actually have an easier time of booking at 7mos by the time 2042 comes around? There will surely be another 3 or 4 DVC resorts, so the options for direct keep growing but in 2042, those of us with resale only or majority resale will have dwindling options. So yes, those with resale contracts at VDH/RIV/CFW and any new ones that come along will be stuck there (I have a feeling that number won’t be that high, many are wary to buy resale at these places so I can’t see the number getting anywhere near resale of the O14, but who knows) but the options for direct keep growing and the amount of resale points able to book into those places is significantly lessened. Places like VGF, CCV, PVB, BLT (don’t even look at VGC) will become VERY hard to book without owning because the competition will be greatest there.

I was going to slowly start adding more CCV as my SAP+ option going forward but now I’m questioning if long term resale SAP is a smart choice I’m really regretting not buying 300 OKW direct as my SAP like I was planning but convinced myself otherwise now…maybe I’m really overthinking this idk.

 

[Sandisw]

I think it makes sense for a lot of families, but over the long term, I think booking at VDH at 9 or 10 months could be even more challenging than booking at VGC, because a very large chunk of the total points will be resale, locked into VDH, and they will all be scrambling against each other (especially the ones in years that are banked/borrowed). That is probably not a problem for at least another 5-10 years though.

It is going to take a long time for any of the restricted resorts to have a meaningful number of resale points, including VDH. One piece of data that I think is misquoted is the 7 - 10 years average ownership for those selling...but that statistic is only based on the contracts that are for sale, and not for the ones that are not.

And, once a contract is sold resale at a restricted resort, it can change hands many times and not impact the % of resale points. I think I read that its typcially maybe 1% of all contracts change hands yearly at the resort that go from original owner to resale owner...not sure how someone figured that out, but I think if you even look at OKW, almost 30 years later, and you still quite a bit of the resort still owned by original owners.

We are now 5 years into RIV, and we are still have under 1% of total contracts sold that have changed hands. One thing that will be interesting to see with the restricted resorts is if owners hold them longer than in the past because they don't want to sell low?

I know that if I am downsizing, my RIV contracts will be the last ones to go....

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

I don’t know do I agree that it will be a very large chunk, not for a long while, maybe 20-30ish years, but I see your point.

Apologies for derailing the plot here, I’m going to take the devils advocate position for a minute cause I’ve been having a think (that never bodes well for me)... Don’t we think that direct owners will actually have an easier time of booking at 7mos by the time 2042 comes around? There will surely be another 3 or 4 DVC resorts, so the options for direct keep growing but in 2042, those of us with resale only or majority resale will have dwindling options. So yes, those with resale contracts at VDH/RIV/CFW and any new ones that come along will be stuck there (I have a feeling that number won’t be that high, many are wary to buy resale at these places so I can’t see the number getting anywhere near resale of the O14, but who knows) but the options for direct keep growing and the amount of resale points able to book into those places is significantly lessened. Places like VGF, CCV, PVB, BLT (don’t even look at VGC) will become VERY hard to book without owning because the competition will be greatest there.

I was going to slowly start adding more CCV as my SAP+ option going forward but now I’m questioning if long term resale SAP is a smart choice I’m really regretting not buying 300 OKW direct as my SAP like I was planning but convinced myself otherwise now…maybe I’m really overthinking this idk.

I don't think you're overthinking it - it's actually one of the reasons why I am debating selling my two VGF resales and buying Poly direct with that money instead.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes, you are most likely correct. But, would they be locked into only VDH? Currently, resale can be used at 7 months at any resort with the exception of Aulani, VDH, Rivera and any new resorts going forward?

Aulani is not restricted.

 

[Chili327]

if they did OKWe level incentive pricing on VDH or RIV I would probably cave (I don’t expect this to happen absent economic emergency

Also If VDH didn’t have the restrictions I would have bought there instead of resale VGC.

Yes, you are most likely correct. But, would they be locked into only VDH? Currently, resale can be used at 7 months at any resort with the exception of Aulani, VDH, Rivera and any new resorts going forward?

Resale VDH is locked into VDH, RIV resale is locked into RIV, but Aulani points are good anywhere at 7 months (except RiV and VDH)

I don’t know if I agree that it will be a very large chunk, not for a long while, maybe 20-30ish years, but I see your point.

Apologies for derailing the plot here, I’m going to take the devils advocate position for a minute cause I’ve been having a think (that never bodes well for me)... Don’t we think that direct owners will actually have an easier time of booking at 7mos by the time 2042 comes around? There will surely be another 3 or 4 DVC resorts, so the options for direct keep growing but in 2042, those of us with resale only or majority resale will have dwindling options. So yes, those with resale contracts at VDH/RIV/CFW and any new ones that come along will be stuck there (I have a feeling that number won’t be that high, many are wary to buy resale at these places so I can’t see the number getting anywhere near resale of the O14, but who knows) but the options for direct keep growing and the amount of resale points able to book into those places is significantly lessened. Places like VGF, CCV, PVB, BLT (don’t even look at VGC) will become VERY hard to book without owning because the competition will be greatest there.

I was going to slowly start adding more CCV as my SAP+ option going forward but now I’m questioning if long term resale SAP is a smart choice I’m really regretting not buying 300 OKW direct as my SAP like I was planning but convinced myself otherwise now…maybe I’m really overthinking this idk.

Yep, I think a fire sale direct is a great option at any resort, that you like!

I think I just assume there will be new options at crescent lake, so I would add-on there when the time comes (if I’m still going to WDW), but also would have a decent amount of SAP+ points by then.

 

[Denise0362]

Also If VDH didn’t have the restrictions I would have bought there instead of resale VGC.


Resale VDH is locked into VDH, RIV resale is locked into RIV, but Aulani points are good anywhere at 7 months (except RiV and VDH)


Yep, I think a fire sale direct is a great option at any resort, that you like!

I think I just assume there will be new options at crescent lake, so I would add-on there when the time comes (if I’m still going to WDW), but also would have a decent amount of SAP+ points by then.

Thank you so much for the information. This was my first contract purchase in several years and I bought direct, but I do realize now that I knew that.