Well, the last few AP discounts have pretty much mirrored the Florida Resident discounts, and been very close to the general public discounts. Since they just released a 20% to 30% general public discount on deluxes, I would expect AP discounts to maybe fall between 30% and 35% maximum, but that doesn't mean Poly will get the maximum discount. Unfortunately, I think the days of the 40% discounts are behind us.
I have an AP, but I do not always book the AP discounts. I book whatever is the best deal, whether its AP, Florida Resident, general public, or bounceback. I have even booked packages with mandatory ticket purchases if the total cost of the package was less than a room only discount (that has happened a couple times for me). I just booked a bounceback yesterday for BCV in September, which was at 35%. I don't expect the AP discount to be any higher, and I expect the availability to be smaller. I'm concerned about my December trip now because it's not covered under the bounceback deal, so I have to wait and see what they offer (and where).