Am I crazy making the assumption that annual passes will come back?

[Jwaire]

According to CFO Christine McCarthy, they're getting a much more profitable "customer mix" at the parks now. So, until that changes, they won't be back. The days of needing Florida residents to keep the parks going in Winter, late Summer, early Fall, etc. are over.

At some point, revenge travel will subside or Disney will get a new CEO that wants to expand capacity instead of maximizing profits on 50 year old rides.

 

[MalorieA]

3 trips to wdw in one year might be too many. We buy annual passes ( not renewal) and go late June the 1st time and then early June the next year to get to trips in on one annual pass.

Yes I hear you on the 2 trips probably being plenty. My thinking though is that I have 2 young boys (8 months and 3 years) so we’ll be taking it slow on our park days especially in the beginning. Plus I want to be able to do one trip with just our fam, one with my husbands family, and one with my side of the family. End of November, May, and September. It all sounds good in my head but I know things change. I’m sure we’ll be adding in Universal when they get older.

 

[Sandisw]

Not sure why the CA Lawsuit affected FL. It seems disney is having a hard time distinguishing CA from FL. Same company but very different. CA has much more locals while FL is much larger with way more tourists. APs need to return there otherwise what is the benefit of direct DVC purchase? A very expensive dvc beach towel?

I think it’s impact was so they could adjust things behind the scenes to limit new buyers and get the bucket system set up based on some real info to sell again.

 

[CarolynFH]

I can afford to renew with no problems but only have one trip planned for the next year, which doesn't justify the cost of the renewal.

How long would that one trip be next year? Last year, DH and I looked at the cost of a 7-day hopper for the dates we'd be likely to go, which is what we'd want for a single visit, and it was only about $20-$30 less expensive than renewing our Gold AP, so we renewed. As our renewal date approached this year, we looked at the difference between the renewal price of a DVC Sorcerer AP and the current price of a new one and considered the likelihood that the price of a new one is going to be higher than it is now, so we renewed even though at that time we only had one trip planned. Of course, both last year and now this year we've added trips to Orlando via exchanges with our other timeshare, so we'll definitely get our money's worth from our renewal APs.

 

[DVCsloth]

We always renew our passes even if we are only doing 8 or 9 days. Our Pirate pass renewal is around $600 each so we just keep them current. DVC and passholder discounts are around the same thing. I miss the dining plan and Fast Pass, hope they bring them back but not counting on it.

 

[npatellye]

How long would that one trip be next year? Last year, DH and I looked at the cost of a 7-day hopper for the dates we'd be likely to go, which is what we'd want for a single visit, and it was only about $20-$30 less expensive than renewing our Gold AP, so we renewed. As our renewal date approached this year, we looked at the difference between the renewal price of a DVC Sorcerer AP and the current price of a new one and considered the likelihood that the price of a new one is going to be higher than it is now, so we renewed even though at that time we only had one trip planned.

I just did the math because we are cutting down to one trip in a 12 month period. However, since our one trip would span Thanksgiving, it’s still cheaper for us to renew our passes than it is to get even a 2 day PH for this year (our passes expire partway through our trip but we need at least another 2 days to do some park days with the family members we are meeting there) and a 5 day PH for next year; next year’s trip will have 3 Disney adults and only one Disney child. I had not planned on renewing but it’s cheaper for us to renew than it is to buy tickets.

 

[loves to dive]

How long would that one trip be next year? Last year, DH and I looked at the cost of a 7-day hopper for the dates we'd be likely to go, which is what we'd want for a single visit, and it was only about $20-$30 less expensive than renewing our Gold AP, so we renewed. As our renewal date approached this year, we looked at the difference between the renewal price of a DVC Sorcerer AP and the current price of a new one and considered the likelihood that the price of a new one is going to be higher than it is now, so we renewed even though at that time we only had one trip planned. Of course, both last year and now this year we've added trips to Orlando via exchanges with our other timeshare, so we'll definitely get our money's worth from our renewal APs.

It will most likely only be 6 nights. I have the most expensive pass, the only one non-DVC out of state people can buy. The renewal rate right now is $1104. Right now a 6 day park hopper for some random dates in May with a discount through the frog would be $623 (including tax) I'm assuming that annual pass renewal does not include tax. Without tax the 6 day PH would be $568. So for the renewal to break even I would probably need two trips with 6 days. While I might be able to swing two trips if I stayed in a value resort or off site for both of them, I don't like to stay off site and I'm o.k. with a value resort for a couple of days but not an entire trip, I need a hot tub.

 

[CarolynFH]

It will most likely only be 6 nights. I have the most expensive pass, the only one non-DVC out of state people can buy. The renewal rate right now is $1104. Right now a 6 day park hopper for some random dates in May with a discount through the frog would be $623 (including tax) I'm assuming that annual pass renewal does not include tax. Without tax the 6 day PH would be $568. So for the renewal to break even I would probably need two trips with 6 days. While I might be able to swing two trips if I stayed in a value resort or off site for both of them, I don't like to stay off site and I'm o.k. with a value resort for a couple of days but not an entire trip, I need a hot tub.

Oh, sorry, I assumed you were a DVC owner and eligible for the DVC AP. I agree that having the Incredi-Pass as the only option changes the math extremely.

You mentioned staying offsite. When you do the math, consider the cost of parking at the theme parks - currently $25/day - which would be free with an AP. It’s not a factor when staying onsite, of course.

And if you’d want photos, the PhotoPass download is a $99 add-on to an AP and good for the whole year, as opposed to however much it is for Memory Maker that’s only good for a single trip. Consider that too when doing the math.

 

[Drew729]

I just did the math because we are cutting down to one trip in a 12 month period. However, since our one trip would span Thanksgiving, it’s still cheaper for us to renew our passes than it is to get even a 2 day PH for this year (our passes expire partway through our trip but we need at least another 2 days to do some park days with the family members we are meeting there) and a 5 day PH for next year; next year’s trip will have 3 Disney adults and only one Disney child. I had not planned on renewing but it’s cheaper for us to renew than it is to buy tickets.

I am not sure what kind of AP you have but wanted to point out that if it’s a Sorcerer pass that there are blackout dates for Thanksgiving week.

 

[npatellye]

I am not sure what kind of AP you have but wanted to point out that if it’s a Sorcerer pass that there are blackout dates for Thanksgiving week.

Thank you! It is a Sorcerer pass but our trip begins midweek the week before and goes through Thanksgiving. We don’t plan on entering any parks after the 22nd; I think that the blackout begins on the 23rd. Our passes expire on the 20th.

 

[Drew729]

Thank you! It is a Sorcerer pass but our trip begins midweek the week before and goes through Thanksgiving. We don’t plan on entering any parks after the 22nd; I think that the blackout begins on the 23rd. Our passes expire on the 20th.

Very nice! Enjoy your trip.

 

[RoseGold]

Is it a big assumption to book a refundable room at swolphin? Probably not.

Is it a big assumption to spend five figure on a timeshare? Yes, IMO.

I plan to sell if APs are eliminated. I’d be ok with a lot of middle ground — price increase, lots of blackout, on site stay only — but I need some form of AP to hold my DVC. I wouldn’t have even considered DVC if APs weren’t for sale.

 

[MinnieSueB]

Is it a big assumption to book a refundable room at swolphin? Probably not.

Is it a big assumption to spend five figure on a timeshare? Yes, IMO.

I plan to sell if APs are eliminated. I’d be ok with a lot of middle ground — price increase, lots of blackout, on site stay only — but I need some form of AP to hold my DVC. I wouldn’t have even considered DVC if APs weren’t for sale.

Agreed - I think it's ridiculous that they are not selling new APs to DVC members right now!

 

[kdm31091]

I think they will be back. There may be more restrictions/blackout dates, or more price increases, or both. But I doubt they get eliminated entirely.

 

[Jwaire]

Agreed - I think it's ridiculous that they are not selling new APs to DVC members right now!

The Pirate Pass isn't ideal, but they could at least offer DVC members access to it when the Sorcerer Pass is sold out.

 

[loves to dive]

Oh, sorry, I assumed you were a DVC owner and eligible for the DVC AP. I agree that having the Incredi-Pass as the only option changes the math extremely.

You mentioned staying offsite. When you do the math, consider the cost of parking at the theme parks - currently $25/day - which would be free with an AP. It’s not a factor when staying onsite, of course.

And if you’d want photos, the PhotoPass download is a $99 add-on to an AP and good for the whole year, as opposed to however much it is for Memory Maker that’s only good for a single trip. Consider that too when doing the math.

Good points but, alas, don't apply to me. I don't stay off site, did it once years ago and found having to drive to the parks and deal with traffic just wasn't vacation for me. It works for some, just not us.

As far a photo pass, I had an AP when it was included and maybe, once in every 2nd trip got one picture. Otherwise, we just didn't use it. I don't like having my picture taken, I know what I look like and don't need to see me. I prefer to take pictures of other things. My son is grown and also doesn't like having his picture taken. We used to get one picture every trip in front of the hat at MGM. My son would actually wear the same shirt in every picture. As the years went by he did have to cut the sleeves off and would only put it on for the picture. After they did away with the hat we didn't do it again. We have every once in a while gotten a picture in front of the castle and last Sept. when we took his baby for the first time, we got one on Main St. for that occasion. It was cheaper to pay for two or three pictures then buy the package and since I don't want to be in the pictures, I can take them of the grand baby.

 

[The Jackal]

The Pirate Pass isn't ideal, but they could at least offer DVC members access to it when the Sorcerer Pass is sold out.

I don’t think any passes are sold out, Chapek just wants people to buy more expensive daily tickets. It is about profit. He has made this clear since the parks opened back up. Profits were more important than AP holders.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I don’t think any passes are sold out, Chapek just wants people to buy more expensive daily tickets. It is about profit. He has made this clear since the parks opened back up. Profits were more important than AP holders.

Perhaps, but do read up on the AP thread linked earlier in this thread. It seems AP sales beyond the Pixie pass are tied to the Disneyland AP lawsuit.

 

[Brian Noble]

It seems AP sales beyond the Pixie pass are tied to the Disneyland AP lawsuit.

I'm not sure we know this, so much as we think this. Or, at least, some of us think this.

AFAIK, that's speculation in the Disneyana community, but I certainly could have missed something.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I'm not sure we know this, so much as we think this. Or, at least, some of us think this.

AFAIK, that's speculation in the Disneyana community, but I certainly could have missed something.

Oh yeah, speculation, nobody but Disney execs know anything for sure. The timing of it all just seems to make them CA drama suspect. But it is also speculatory to assert the suspension of passes is just pure greed--why would they have brought them back in the first place and suspended so suddenly?

We don't know anything. I personally think some form of AP will return given renewals, but