It has the making of a quick selling
DVC. My guess is that less than 2 years and maybe 1.5 years. Which would be unprecidented.
The new buildings are not scheduled to open until 2009 and I don't beleive that DVC can close on the points represented by those rooms until then. I think those buildings have about 2/3 of the rooms and thus, about 2/3 of the points. So while the points in the existing lodge building may sell out quickly, I think there will be a lag time due to the timing of opening the new buildings.
Of course, during that lag time, SSR will probably be sold out and there may not be any other new DVC resorts available for sale.
Also, you may be overestimating the number of DVC members who will want to own at AKV. I have never stayed at AKL, but we love to visit. Our typical stay at DVC, however, is around 10 nights. I can't see staying at AKL for that length of time. I will probably do a split stay with BWV (where we own) becuase I love walking to Epcot and the Studios. With about 80% of the rooms at AKV reported to be savannah view, only time will tell, but I expect to be able to snag a couple of nights savannah view from time to time at the 7 month window.
Of course, those who like concierge will probably need to buy at AKV to get the 11 month window (even if there are more than the reported 5 rooms).
I would expect time will also tell about the demand for value and standard rooms and a lot will depend on the perceived value of those rooms. One of the reasons standard view rooms at BWV sell out so quickly is that many believe they offer equal or better views to those offered for the higher point pool/garden view rooms. Now that a few of the BWV standard rooms have an acknowledged and significant noise problem (due to the proximity to the ME luggage truck unloading zone), the perceived value of these rooms may decline somewhat.
In any event, at this time, I would not expect to have an easy time booking value or standard without owning AKV, but this really doesn't matter to me. For me, the point to staying at AKV is a guaranteed savannah view room.
Also, I am not in this camp, but I know that some will want to own at AKV just to get the higher occupancy in 1 and 2 BRs, but it seems unlikely that this will apply to the value rooms.
-- Suzanne