Afraid I'm overpaying

[Kahlenfiore]

Hi all...We bought OKW in 2011 and have been looking to add on a small contract. I've been watching the market closely over the last few months and see that prices have been rising...I know there are a number of factors to why this could be, but I am really regretting not jumping on something a few months ago.

That said, I made an offer that was accepted today and now I am feeling like I am overpaying. I haven't seen anything quite this high for this resort, but I do see comparable listing prices for other resorts. This contract is also not at the resort I really wanted....

I haven't signed a contract yet so I could still back out....I am worried though that prices will just continue to climb.

Anyone think they may come down a bit in the next few months?

 

[Meglen]

What numbers you working with? also if you dont feel it I wouldnt do it.

 

[Kahlenfiore]

50pts, Boulder Ridge, $147 a pt. Loaded contract...in my UY.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Small contracts always go high and in theory you could rent the points to recover ~$15/pt. I don't think that price is out of line necessarily and even if it's a few bucks high... that's only a few bucks per year over the life of the contract.

A bit concerned when you mention "it's not at the resort I really wanted" though. Is your mixed feelings more rooted in that?

Fwiw, I don't think prices will be coming down much in the next few months. The country is coming out of hibernation now that the vaccine is rolling out and demand will likely go up.

 

[Kahlenfiore]

Small contracts always go high and in theory you could rent the points to recover ~$15/pt. I don't think that price is out of line necessarily and even if it's a few bucks high... that's only a few bucks per year over the life of the contract.

A bit concerned when you mention "it's not at the resort I really wanted" though. Is your mixed feelings more rooted in that?

Quite possibly....I really wanted BWV. When I first started looking a few months ago, the BW contracts I was seeing were around what I'm paying now for BR....I definitely regret not jumping on them when I saw them now.

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

In aggregate I would not expect prices to decline in the next few months. The COVID recovery will lead to increased demand, not to mention the likely stimulus payments that will be going out soon. From what I understand, demand since news of the successful vaccines has been extremely high.

That being said, there are always those diamonds in the rough out there to be found. Even if prices drift upward you could find a good deal if you keep an eye out and happen to find a motivated seller. Personally I would not move forward if you are already feeling reservations, especially about the resort you’ve chosen. Buy a contract at the resort you’ll love to stay at.

 

[princesscinderella]

If it’s not your resort of choice I would not purchase it. Other small contracts will become available at BWV, especially at the price you have currently negotiated for BRV. Don’t settle and there’s a big difference in the two resorts. Nothing beats the convince of being able to walk to HS and Epcot! I’d look for Beach club for boardwalk small points contracts if that’s the location you want. Beach club has storm along bay so that’s a plus too even though it’s a smaller DVC resort.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I would strongly encourage you to wait and buy what you really want. I think we are in a bubble and it is going to burst eventually. Right now is a good time to be a seller and a good time to wait to buy unless you are in a time crunch.

 

[Kahlenfiore]

In aggregate I would not expect prices to decline in the next few months. The COVID recovery will lead to increased demand, not to mention the likely stimulus payments that will be going out soon. From what I understand, demand since news of the successful vaccines has been extremely high.

That being said, there are always those diamonds in the rough out there to be found. Even if prices drift upward you could find a good deal if you keep an eye out and happen to find a motivated seller. Personally I would not move forward if you are already feeling reservations, especially about the resort you’ve chosen. Buy a contract at the resort you’ll love to stay at.

Thank you- I think you’re right.

 

[Kahlenfiore]

I would strongly encourage you to wait and buy what you really want. I think we are in a bubble and it is going to burst eventually. Right now is a good time to be a seller and a good time to wait to buy unless you are in a time crunch.

Thank you for this. I’m also concerned with the bubble bursting, and don’t want to buy high for a resort I don’t really want. Appreciate the feedback.

 

[RanDIZ]

It’s a bit on the higher side for BRV. Smaller contracts are generally higher, on the bright side it’s loaded. Definitely a sellers market.

 

[Kahlenfiore]

If it’s not your resort of choice I would not purchase it. Other small contracts will become available at BWV, especially at the price you have currently negotiated for BRV. Don’t settle and there’s a big difference in the two resorts. Nothing beats the convince of being able to walk to HS and Epcot! I’d look for Beach club for boardwalk small points contracts if that’s the location you want. Beach club has storm along bay so that’s a plus too even though it’s a smaller DVC resort.

Yes, yes, and yes! Beach Club and BW are what I’ve been focused on. I love both and love that area. I’d be happy at either one, BC is pricier though. Thank you for this and helping me put this into perspective.

 

[BlackTea]

If you continuously try to convince yourself, then don’t do it. You might find a lot of relief backing out...

 

[poofyo101]

I would rather buy more points
You maybe able to get 100 points for 100 per point
vs 50 points for 147.
If you can swing it.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

50pts, Boulder Ridge, $147 a pt. Loaded contract...in my UY.

Way overpaying. Way, way overpaying, regardless of contract size.

I disagree with those saying prices are just going up. The government is spending an insane amount of money and is about to raise taxes on everyone. I think there will be a pullback on dvc purchases very soon.

 

[AaronEuth]

Way way overpaying, dvcresalemarket.com has their average Boulder Ridge price per point at $114 for January 2021. Your paying a 29% upcharge for that small contract....at a resort you don't even want.

Given that it isn't even the resort you want, start looking at sleep around points at SSR, or hell call Disney and buy them direct at SSR.
$147/pt for 23 more years of BR (i gave it an extra year since the contract is loaded) you are paying $6.40/pt per year. SSR direct would be $5/pt per year. When direct is the cheaper option......

Or just shop around and wait until you find a contract you get excited about at a reasonable price.

 

[Kahlenfiore]

Thank you for the honest feedback. I am definitely concerned about the inflated market right now.

Way overpaying. Way, way overpaying, regardless of contract size.

I disagree with those saying prices are just going up. The government is spending an insane amount of money and is about to raise taxes on everyone. I think there will be a pullback on dvc purchases very soon.

 

[Kahlenfiore]

Way way overpaying, dvcresalemarket.com has their average Boulder Ridge price per point at $114 for January 2021. Your paying a 29% upcharge for that small contract....at a resort you don't even want.

Given that it isn't even the resort you want, start looking at sleep around points at SSR, or hell call Disney and buy them direct at SSR.
$147/pt for 23 more years of BR (i gave it an extra year since the contract is loaded) you are paying $6.40/pt per year. SSR direct would be $5/pt per year. When direct is the cheaper option......

Or just shop around and wait until you find a contract you get excited about at a reasonable price.

Thanks so much for the feedback....I have been considering buying direct as well, especially with the 6mo no interest on Disney Visa. I reached out to my guide last week and he sent me those numbers for OKW, SSR, and BW. Definitely something to consider.
This is really helping me realize this is something I need to hit the pause button on. Thanks so much.

 

[RoseGold]

The majority of the cost is DUES on these contracts. If you plan to hold for several years, small differences and even closing costs don’t impact the math much, because the dues are so much more expensive than all the other factors.

I wouldn’t buy a 2042 unless you plan to run out the clock anyway.

but yea, with this argument, you might as well buy direct and get 2057 OKW. For 50 points, maybe worth it. Cheaper closing and will hold resale, as opposed to worth 0 at 2042.

 

[Kahlenfiore]

Thank you all for the very helpful insights. I decided this is is not the right contract for me at this time and have retracted my offer. I see it is already re-listed and I'm glad, feel this way the right move. Thanks again.