Actual Crowd vs UG Predicted - Monday 18 April

[lentesta]

As of 1 pm Eastern, headliner attractions at the Magic Kingdom had following standby wait times:

Space Mountain: 75 minutes
Splash Mountain: 75 minutes
Big Thunder: 35 minutes (yeah, we don't believe it either)

This rates a high "7" on the UG's scale of 1 to 10, and will change to an 8 if the waits hit 80 minutes. Peak wait time for MK attraction usually is around 2 pm, so my guess is today will end up being an 8. I don't think it'd get to a 9 (waits of more than 100 minutes).

Using the "new" UG crowd prediction model, we'd predicted a 7 for today.

Using the trip planner data, we'd predicted an 8 for today.

I'll provide another update after the 2 pm data arrive.

Len

 

[ottawamom]

Thanks for the info Len. Glad you're the one driving the boat in trying to figure this all out for us. We, the Disney obsessed trip planners sure do appreciate it.

 

[eeyore45]

Thank you so much for the update!! Its like things are a changin so fast!! I appreciate that you are willing to take the time and post here!! It adds to all the excitement that is Disney, and having accurate information based on experience is WONDERFUL!!

Thank you

Your information is always helpful!!

 

[WaltD4Me]

Thanks for the update! -- So I'm guessing the "new" plan had the North Eastern spring breaks figured in?

I'm hoping this is a good sign for my trip May 9th, all breaks should be over by then and I'd be really happy with 5 to 6 crowd levels at this point.

Boy, Len, I guess you are learning about what it would be like to be a weatherman!

 

[Dobie]

Thanks, Len

Just out of curiosity, how long a wait is a 4?

 

[june@imsarc.com]

Len--I know this is off the topic--but,

How do you feel about crowds in June, specifically from June 12-24? I think the UG says crowd level 8. Based upon this year's actual data so far, do you think that is a high or low estimate?

Thanks!

 

[imfortune8]

Wow, how things change. When we were in MK just on Thurs, all the mojor attractions were a max of 25 min waits. It was a great day to be there and we rode most rides several times! That was just a few days ago!

Good Luck people!

 

[dcibrando]

we can't predict may based on this... we're still in spring break mode

 

[lentesta]

Hi folks,

The wait times at 2:15 pm:

Splash: 75 minutes
Big Thunder: 70 minutes
Space: 55 minutes

Wait times seem to have peaked around 1:30 as follows:

Splash: 80 minutes
Big Thunder: 70 minutes
Space: 75 minutes

If we take the highest value of those three, it's an "8" on the UG's scale. If we take the average or median (75 for both), the day would rate a "7." As noted below, one UG model predicted an 8, and the other predicted a 7. One day doesn't say much, however. We'll see how accurate the models are as the week progresses.

june@imsarc.com, ask me at the end of this week, when we'll know more about the models and their accuracy. Public schools almost everywhere should be out by June 12, right? That would lead to higher crowd levels.

WaltD4Me, yes, we knew about spring break in most of NE, and it's factored in to both of the models used. Next week is NYC public schools, too.

Dobie, good question. I think we need to refine the 1-10 scale a bit more, as some numbers don't have corresponding wait times. Let me see if I can work on that.

eeyore45, thanks very much!

I've got UG researchers in the parks Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat, and all of next week. Still trying to find someone for tomorrow and Sunday. Will keep everyone posted here or on the blog.

Len

 

[bgbruce]

dcibrando - I don't think he's saying that there is a direct correlation between how crowded it is today versus how crowded it will be in May. I think he is looking at the current conditions to validate his new "algorithm" for determining crowd size. If the conditions today (and over the next several days) match the predicted level, then that indicates that the algorithm is valid and should be usable to predict crowd levels on future days as well.

 

[Stitch Inside]

I've got UG researchers in the parks Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat, and all of next week. Still trying to find someone for tomorrow and Sunday. Will keep everyone posted here or on the blog.

Len

I'll volunteer for tomorrow if you fly me down there tonight.

 

[HappyMommy2]

Sure wish I were down there waiting in that 75-minute line for Splash right now!
Then after riding, I'd head over to Pecos Bill's for some cheese fries.
Sigh.

Thanks Len for working on this--much appreciated!

 

[DMRick]

Public schools almost everywhere should be out by June 12, right? That would lead to higher crowd levels.

end of June up here in the Northeast..around the 23rd, I think

 

[NewEnglandDisney]

No surprise there - Massachusetts (and other states in the northeast) have this entire week off.

Yeah, if this is the wait now - I have a hard time believing it's going to stay this steady through until June.

N.E.D.

 

[kellyandkids]

Len, if the park is at a 7 or 8 today, what is the occupancy rate right now for the Disney hotels, and how does that compare with the occupancy rates for the first couple of weeks of May. Or are you trying this model out without factoring that into it to see how this works?

 

[Nik's Mom]

Wow! The parks are pretty busy. I'm curious to see how next week goes!

 

[jackskellingtonsgirl]

Next week is Passover. The little girl I nanny is out this Friday all the way through Monday, May 2, returning to school May 3.

Public schools aren't out at all again until the school year is over on May 27-ish. Dallas public schools finish the year the Thursday before Memorial Day - I am too lazy to go look at the exact date.

I'm glad we aren't planning a trip for summer - it looks like it will be WAY crowded and WAY hot. Not a combo I would be happy with!

Thanks, Len, for all your hard work and input!

 

[eeyore45]

Our school in the northern suburbs of IL are out June 9, so I'm sure the 12th is a good guess!

I also would like to post your site url for 'Best Touring Days"

http://www.touringplans.com/BestDays.htm

I really feel that the touringplans.com has such a great wealth of information to pour through, what a great companion piece to the UG - and all for free, a true bargain as far as I'm concerned!! Thank you for making it available, and then to give a heads up here!!

 

[leebee]

I think you'll find that most of the public schools in New England, if not the entire Northeast, get out pretty late in June. Up here in the Bangor area, we get out anytime between the 17th and the 22nd. My DSis lives in southern Maine and her school system has scheduled the last day for June 27th! My friend in PA has kids in school until the 24th. It was a pretty snowy winter, and now we'll be making up the days we missed...sigh...

 

[LoraJ]

All i can say is, I am SOOOooooooo glad that we went last week.

We walked on Splash Mountain and had the whole boat to ourselves.