8/17/08 Captain Jack's Repossession Repo Cruise to PC thru TPC #8

[GoofyontheHiSeas]

Well we all know Tom isn't getting an upgrade.

Or Roger.

I am just hoping not to be downgraded at this point. I am sure that they had my IP address programed into the system last night. First attempt into the system "Our records indicate that you are not paid in full" Finally get in, got Acapulco, had Brunch chosen and went to submit and it crashed. Took 45 mins of head banging to get back on. By that time NO brunch. 10 more times of being locked out (we call it H-ramed at work) where the system still thinks I am in there somewhere making ressies. I finally got back in around 11pm PDT and got Cartagena and a Palo dinner. I too am suffering from the same problem as Tom with the brunch thing today. All and all I am happy with what we got, just not happy about the way we had to go about getting them.

 

[Grandma x3]

Hi Gang,

I just got an e-mail from PV zip line folks - DH Paul has 12 pm ressie and DD Lori, DGS Matt & I (the faint-hearted) are going along as observers!!! They sure responded faster than DCL

 

[dahuffy]

On the main forum, people are oposting they didnt know you have to 'confirm' the final unconfirmed bookings, you choose a Palo, or shore trip it goes into a holding list and then you confirm, people have lsot out not knowing there is one more stage to it.

Plus if you lost the link between this process, its dropped.

I just went back in and was able to pick another night...Aug. 20th,at 6pm. This is also the day that we're in P.V. Hope we're not too wiped out from Zipping!

 

[captaincrash]

...not to worry ,crash...we're not left out...even
o'possums are ..by their mothers..............

Thanks Lil'G

I can positively feel the welcoming warmth....

Oh Carp!​

 

[danfromca]

I can certainly see the problem (I have a master's in CS, so understand the theory even if I haven't worked on large systems) but it seems odd that other cruiselines with MANY more ships than DCL don't seem to have this problem - are their customers less involved and less likely to book right when the window opens. Even with that, a line that has a couple dozen ships still must get quite a load even if a smaller percentage is booking immediately - they would be bound to have mulitple ships booking the same day all the time.

Pamela

Let's run the numbers. Let's figure a 50 ship fleet. Average 7 night cruises and the same criteria.

W'ere now at 125000 passengers/week, 6.5 million/year (obviously less - those 50 ships aren't running full, but let's go with it). 3.25 million passenger vists. 48.75 million visitors/year.
Only 3.46 billion page views though - Alexa ranks Carnival at 7.1 pages/visit.
That's 658 page views/minute. That would be the baseline they are designed for (11/second).

With 50 ships and weekly cruises, we get 7 ships booking every day. But let's call it 8 to be conservative.

We were estimating DCL had 250 people for 2 ships, so if the Carnival folk are as dedicated (which I doubt) we're at 1000 people hitting that server at peak. That's 1000 page views/second....

On a system that is normally scaled for 11 views/second.

With DCL we figured a peak of 500x and a conservative minimum of 100x load. With this model we come up with a peak of 90x. What's the conservative minimum? 20x? 40x?

The point is - though it's counter-intuitive, you really are better off with a larger fleet in this regard - because you've already built up more server capacity to handle your average load. Your costs are amortized across more passengers. You've probably also built a more scalable system. Going from 2 servers to 20 can be more complex than going from 40 to 400 (in the latter case you've already solved the database synchronization, load balancing and system management issues).

Also, I do believe that Disboards increases the magnitude of the problem -let's face it, we really do encourage each other (scare each other?) into trying to book at the same time. Does Carnival have anything like this? I've sailed with them a few times and never ran into it. If we had even distributed our reservation load over 24 hours instead of all trying within one hour, I expect DCL would have handled thing quite nicely.

 

[captaincrash]

Tom,
I saw Indiana Jones at Paramount Studio press preview yesterday. It won't be in theaters until the 22nd.

You're sooo lucky! OK, now I'm back to possibly feeding the "take" for Prince Caspian....

 

[yargrnhoj]

Having additional backup servers might help - if that's the main bottleneck. But I think the real bottleneck is talking to their database system (I think that's what is happening while Micky is swimming). And that's much harder to split across multiple machines. To see why, let's say they have 20 spots for Palo Brunch. If you have one database on one machine, it's pretty easy to keep track of those reservations. If you have two machines, and each one has a copy of the database (which is what you need to improve performance), how do you coordinate the two machines to prevent them from issuing 40 spots? Well, they have to communicate with each other to stay synchronized, and in doing so you lose much of the benefit of running the databse on two machines! Ouch!

It's a tough problem.

The distributed database problem is one that has been solved in a number of ways by a number of companies. I work on a system that manages well over 3000 transactions per second. The difference is, my client's very business (the service they deliver) depends on those transactions being processed. For DCL, it's a little different -- they incur some customer dissatisfaction but likely aren't losing a lot of revenue over these issues. (How many people bailed out on the cruise on 01/31? Probably a few, but it still ended up 100% sold).

In my line of work, we have a couple of really busy days. My customer has made the decision that they will not plan capacity for those days -- they are willing to accept some level of blocking on those days and instead provide high service the rest of the year. I'll note my customer has one of the highest customer satisfaction ratings in the industry, so maybe they're right in their thinking. (I'd like them to spend some more money on more equipment, though).

DCL seems to be of the same mindset. They could have made any number of changes to alleviate this crush from staggering the types of bookings to releasing blocks of openings (e.g. A-L book from 12 to 2 and M-Z from 2-4 and promising there would be equal openings available for both blocks).

Obviously, this type of 'hassle' hasn't affected the bottom line enough to force them to make any changes. Now, granted, this may be the first time they've had this number of repeat cruisers all on one cruise.

 

[captaincrash]

Let's run the numbers. Let's figure a 50 ship fleet. Average 7 night cruises and the same criteria.

W'ere now at 125000 passengers/week, 6.5 million/year (obviously less - those 50 ships aren't running full, but let's go with it). 3.25 million passenger vists. 48.75 million visitors/year.
Only 3.46 billion page views though - Alexa ranks Carnival at 7.1 pages/visit.
That's 658 page views/minute. That would be the baseline they are designed for (11/second).

With 50 ships and weekly cruises, we get 7 ships booking every day. But let's call it 8 to be conservative.

We were estimating DCL had 250 people for 2 ships, so if the Carnival folk are as dedicated (which I doubt) we're at 1000 people hitting that server at peak. That's 1000 page views/second....

On a system that is normally scaled for 11 views/second.

With DCL we figured a peak of 500x and a conservative minimum of 100x load. With this model we come up with a peak of 90x. What's the conservative minimum? 20x? 40x?

The point is - though it's counter-intuitive, you really are better off with a larger fleet in this regard - because you've already built up more server capacity to handle your average load. Your costs are amortized across more passengers. You've probably also built a more scalable system. Going from 2 servers to 20 can be more complex than going from 40 to 400 (in the latter case you've already solved the database synchronization, load balancing and system management issues).

Also, I do believe that Disboards increases the magnitude of the problem -let's face it, we really do encourage each other (scare each other?) into trying to book at the same time. Does Carnival have anything like this? I've sailed with them a few times and never ran into it. If we had even distributed our reservation load over 24 hours instead of all trying within one hour, I expect DCL would have handled thing quite nicely.

Hey, something just occurred to me. I didn't go online with DCL to book any ressies, tours or whatever... and my TA didn't use the online system to handle my requests. SO I am truly INNOCENT of contributing to this mess with any excessive site use.

 

[bellelinus]

Time to get to work on my end - it was great having the chat and this board last night just to know that we weren't alone in the craziness that is DCL website

We are booked on the following excursions
PV - Dolphin swim
Cartagena - Best of Cartagena

Cabo - on our own
Acapulco - Not sure what we are doing maybe just walking around on our own
Aruba - renting a jeep or car and going off on our own

Booked Palo dinner for our anniversary
Hoping for brunch and a tea

Sounds good, Jo! I hope you are able to get brunch.

I've never been upgraded.

That just means you are overdue for a great upgrade!

 

[jship210]

Hi Gang,

I just got an e-mail from PV zip line folks - DH Paul has 12 pm ressie and DD Lori, DGS Matt & I (the faint-hearted) are going along as observers!!! They sure responded faster than DCL

Great News! Which company are you using, if I might ask?
I DS 17 and I were trying to get one. Thank You!!

 

[dahuffy]

Let's run the numbers. Let's figure a 50 ship fleet. Average 7 night cruises and the same criteria.

W'ere now at 125000 passengers/week, 6.5 million/year (obviously less - those 50 ships aren't running full, but let's go with it). 3.25 million passenger vists. 48.75 million visitors/year.
Only 3.46 billion page views though - Alexa ranks Carnival at 7.1 pages/visit.
That's 658 page views/minute. That would be the baseline they are designed for (11/second).

With 50 ships and weekly cruises, we get 7 ships booking every day. But let's call it 8 to be conservative.

We were estimating DCL had 250 people for 2 ships, so if the Carnival folk are as dedicated (which I doubt) we're at 1000 people hitting that server at peak. That's 1000 page views/second....

On a system that is normally scaled for 11 views/second.

With DCL we figured a peak of 500x and a conservative minimum of 100x load. With this model we come up with a peak of 90x. What's the conservative minimum? 20x? 40x?

The point is - though it's counter-intuitive, you really are better off with a larger fleet in this regard - because you've already built up more server capacity to handle your average load. Your costs are amortized across more passengers. You've probably also built a more scalable system. Going from 2 servers to 20 can be more complex than going from 40 to 400 (in the latter case you've already solved the database synchronization, load balancing and system management issues).

Also, I do believe that Disboards increases the magnitude of the problem -let's face it, we really do encourage each other (scare each other?) into trying to book at the same time. Does Carnival have anything like this? I've sailed with them a few times and never ran into it. If we had even distributed our reservation load over 24 hours instead of all trying within one hour, I expect DCL would have handled thing quite nicely.

MATH ALERT!!!!!

 

[Andrew DEREK UK]

I just went back in and was able to pick another night...Aug. 20th,at 6pm. This is also the day that we're in P.V. Hope we're not too wiped out from Zipping!

Hey, something just occurred to me. I didn't go online with DCL to book any ressies, tours or whatever... and my TA didn't use the online system to handle my requests. SO I am truly INNOCENT of contributing to this mess with any excessive site use.

You just sound 'guilty' posting this!!

 

[Grandma x3]

Great News! Which company are you using, if I might ask?
I DS 17 and I were trying to get one. Thank You!!

Hi,
It is the same one as the link someone already sent to you. www.canopytours-vallarta.com I emailed them on Sat. & they responded today!!

 

[justmestace]

I can't get logged in to the thread on the Pirate Zone to list our excursions. It tells me I'm not registered.

 

[bellelinus]

Hi Gang,

I just got an e-mail from PV zip line folks - DH Paul has 12 pm ressie and DD Lori, DGS Matt & I (the faint-hearted) are going along as observers!!! They sure responded faster than DCL

That's great, Chris! I sure hope we get that private Palo brunch since it was virtually impossible for any of us to get a regular reservation . . . plus, it's just so much fun to have brunch all together, as we know from last year . . .

 

[danfromca]

The distributed database problem is one that has been solved in a number of ways by a number of companies. I work on a system that manages well over 3000 transactions per second. The difference is, my client's very business (the service they deliver) depends on those transactions being processed. For DCL, it's a little different -- they incur some customer dissatisfaction but likely aren't losing a lot of revenue over these issues. (How many people bailed out on the cruise on 01/31? Probably a few, but it still ended up 100% sold).

In my line of work, we have a couple of really busy days. My customer has made the decision that they will not plan capacity for those days -- they are willing to accept some level of blocking on those days and instead provide high service the rest of the year. I'll note my customer has one of the highest customer satisfaction ratings in the industry, so maybe they're right in their thinking. (I'd like them to spend some more money on more equipment, though).

DCL seems to be of the same mindset. They could have made any number of changes to alleviate this crush from staggering the types of bookings to releasing blocks of openings (e.g. A-L book from 12 to 2 and M-Z from 2-4 and promising there would be equal openings available for both blocks).

Obviously, this type of 'hassle' hasn't affected the bottom line enough to force them to make any changes. Now, granted, this may be the first time they've had this number of repeat cruisers all on one cruise.

Exactly right. It's a tough problem, but one that definitely has solutions available. They just cost.

In truth (as I brought up but probably did not emphasize enough), this is not a technology problem so much as a business/economics problem.

I'm actually really curious how much of an impact DISboards has on the problem. Consider even the day one reservations (as awful and chaotic as it was). How much of the day one demand happened because communication about the reservation window opening that was propogated here?

Most cruise lines have to rely on advertising to get the word out. And I've never seen an ad or Email from another line saying "wake up at 5:00am and book this amazing upcoming cruise".

I certainly wouldn't be on this cruise were it not for Disboards. I certainly would not have been up at 5:00am or whatever it was without it. I probably would not have stayed up to book excursions at midnight (aka 9pm) without it.

It's seems possible that Disboards significantly distorts reservation and excursion booking models as compared to the cruise industry overall. One could argue that DCL should realize this and plan accordingly, but if, in fact, Disboards is unique among cruise lines, and if it is distorting customer patterns, then the only way DCL would learn is through mistakes/experience - and that takes time.

Wouldn't that be the ultimate irony though? That we ourselves are one of the primary sources of the problems we are facing?

 

[dahuffy]

That's great, Chris! I sure hope we get that private Palo brunch since it was virtually impossible for any of us to get a regular reservation . . . plus, it's just so much fun to have brunch all together, as we know from last year . . .

 

[Grandma x3]

That's great, Chris! I sure hope we get that private Palo brunch since it was virtually impossible for any of us to get a regular reservation . . . plus, it's just so much fun to have brunch all together, as we know from last year . . .

Hi Julie,
I'm going to have a chat w/PJ when I go on the Mexican Riviera cruise at the end of June - he worked "magic" for the Tea for us last summer. However, as far as the private room - I know that there are a number of requests in for brunch - I think there are more requests than sea days!!!



ZIP LINE QUESTION How is everyone planning on getting from the ship to the Canopy Tours office??? I know Monica said that when she spent a week in PV she traveled by public buses.

 

[captaincrash]

At last count due to the 'dud' fortune cookies you ordered for me, you owed me £8 million for missed lottery funding, but the independent arbitrator appointed by *you* awarded myself damages of 25 Mickey bars, and a Palo brunch

OK.,.. I'll have the 25 Ice Cream Bars on hand for you - all collectible after the Mickey Ice Cream Bar Races. You'll have to collect the clean wooden sticks from the bars and "reassemble" them about 8-18 hours after the race when you've visited the cabins of the various particpants for the "processed remains". That is ... if ya want more then the Mickey Bar sticks.

As for the brunch, you got it pal! Of course, I'l provide the brunch on a sailing of my choosing... so I hope you can meet up with THAT particular voyage! You of all among the surviving Time Lords should know that you should be careful to choose ones' words carfully when framing your wishes. Just ask Aladdin, right?

OK... I've goofed off more than enough today - I really gotta go without and further delay.

Have a better day today than you were expecting. Did I mention that DCL was sending a special Castaway Club sail away gift to everyone who got messed up last nite? Oh shoot... now where were my notes on thatspecial gift? I guess you'll all have ta wait until August now to figure out what it is you're getting!

< wink >​

 

[danfromca]

Have a better day today than you were expecting. Did I mention that DCL was sending a special Castaway Club sail away gift to everyone who got messed up last nite? Oh shoot... now where were my notes on thatspecial gift? I guess you'll all have ta wait until August now to figure out what it is you're getting!

< wink >​

Yeah - I heard that. I think though that you have to sign up for it. They have a limited selection to choose from. The window for gift registration opens next Sunday at 12:01am Eastern.....