5th gate on the horizon?

[lockedoutlogic]

If you're talking about mlk and July 4...you can't make an operational assessment like "the parks are full" on that.

You have to take the 325 days a year that aren't mobbed...not the outliers where you have to be nutz to go...no offense.

That's like me saying "they should invest 5+ billion (no joke) to build a new park because mk was MOBBED on 12/26"

Not exactly Wharton business thinking there.

 

[George4]

If you're talking about mlk and July 4...you can't make an operational assessment like "the parks are full" on that.

You have to take the 325 days a year that aren't mobbed...not the outliers where you have to be nutz to go...no offense.

That's like me saying "they should invest 5+ billion (no joke) to build a new park because mk was MOBBED on 12/26"

Not exactly Wharton business thinking there.

That was actually my original point - that it is only a few days a year right now that things are crowded, but that for something like building a new park, you have to think 10-20 years down the road. Their attendance is still growing year over year, even during the recession. I don't see a new gate coming any time soon, but Disney is starting to have a capacity problem that Fastpass+ isn't going to solve.

Thanks for the kind closing thought in an open discussion forum. Way to be open to a difference of opinion and treat different viewpoints with an open mind for discussion.

 

[Justin Mendoza]

I came back from a trip in mid-December, and it was a really great time! The extra magic hours we attended were not crowded whatsoever, and the parks were never unbearably busy...until the last day, a Friday I believe, and it was overwhelming, unpleasant, loud, disorienting, and honestly, kind of disheartening. They need to find some way to bring these levels down, but I don't think there really is one sadly...an immediate one anyway.

I think in a lot of ways, there's so many little things that are flawed, dirtier bathrooms and walkways, the prices, the people they cater to recently, the crowds, the waits, the awfully repetitive gift shops (these really got on my nerves), how dated and boring Wishes and Fantasmic were, the condition and outdated-ness of quite a few attractions...it's sad. Regardless of my experience this last trip, which was a pretty amazing one...

They're not gonna do much. Disney is at a point, where people are going to keep coming as long as they pump out a few new things every once in a while that people actually care about (Star Wars, Pandora), then slap a bunch of low-rate events or "temporary" attractions to satiate the crowds and take in money from richer folks. We get mad about these things because this is what we love and crave, but the general public visiting probably doesn't even really know what MyMagic+ is...let alone how to reserve things.

I will always love Disney World, but it is losing just a bit of that magic everyone associates with it.

 

[stitch 6 2 6]

A 5th park seems pretty unlikely, especially when the others have so much planned expansion and so much room to grow.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The true heart of the problem for a anymore new parks is this:

Americans get less vacation on average each year and it's been trending that way for decades...

And...what's left of the middle class is still dwindling.

Whether Disney admits it or not...the American middle class is what their parks were built on and will always be a necessary component.

There are a ton of good reasons...park cannibalization, the tremendous new costs associated with prepping a new area And the inevitable support and infrastructure needed...as well.

 

[gschon]

San Antonio would be a great location for a new park They have land, and hotels, and less rain.

 

[Lee Matthews]

Like said, while Magic Kingdom creaks once in while with crowd levels, the other parks certainly don't by any stretch

 

[middlechild]

Keep in mind the make up of the American family has changed. Less kids per household and waiting years contribute to older parents with just one child, if at all. When you market yourself as family friendly, the concept of family has changed dramatically.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Keep in mind the make up of the American family has changed. Less kids per household and waiting years contribute to older parents with just one child, if at all. When you market yourself as family friendly, the concept of family has changed dramatically.

An excellent point.

I preach here all the time that Disney parks (the US ones...at least) were built on the model of the 20th century American middle class.

That reality is all but gone...there is not much purchasing power left there and little potential for wealth.

That has changed how families are constructed and certainly changed their travel capabilities and habits.

Some for the better...some far for the worse.

 

[jade1]

Keep in mind the make up of the American family has changed. Less kids per household and waiting years contribute to older parents with just one child, if at all. When you market yourself as family friendly, the concept of family has changed dramatically.

Well then I guess Disney Springs is the 5th gate.

Anyway, a new "7th gate" down the road will be great to check out as well.

 

[Tom P.]

An excellent point.

I preach here all the time that Disney parks (the US ones...at least) were built on the model of the 20th century American middle class.

That reality is all but gone...there is not much purchasing power left there and little potential for wealth.

That has changed how families are constructed and certainly changed their travel capabilities and habits.

Some for the better...some far for the worse.

If all of that is true, then how do you explain the Disney parks experiencing record attendance and consistent growth year after year after year? All those people you see at Walt Disney World are not the wealthy elite. Seems to me that the middle class is still coming to WDW in droves.

 

[sachilles]

I think it's becoming a larger international destination. Attendance gains, are not necessarily based soley on the American family demographic.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

If all of that is true, then how do you explain the Disney parks experiencing record attendance and consistent growth year after year after year? All those people you see at Walt Disney World are not the wealthy elite. Seems to me that the middle class is still coming to WDW in droves.

The net they cast is much larger now due to increase in travel on average both domestically and globally.

But the backbone...the core is smaller. Different things like timeshares also make a difference.
But it has seemed that they have tried for the "one timer" market much more with high prices.

The question is: is there an unlimited supply of "one timers"?

 

[jade1]

The question is: is there an unlimited supply of "one timers"

What they have done/are doing with Star Wars alone will probably fill that void-if there ever was one.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

What they have done/are doing with Star Wars alone will probably fill that void-if there ever was one.

That is unquestionably a huge reason why they're opening the purse strings for it.

 

[George4]

An excellent point.

I preach here all the time that Disney parks (the US ones...at least) were built on the model of the 20th century American middle class.

That reality is all but gone...there is not much purchasing power left there and little potential for wealth.

That has changed how families are constructed and certainly changed their travel capabilities and habits.

Some for the better...some far for the worse.

Those are all good points.

 

[George4]

The net they cast is much larger now due to increase in travel on average both domestically and globally.

But the backbone...the core is smaller. Different things like timeshares also make a difference.
But it has seemed that they have tried for the "one timer" market much more with high prices.

The question is: is there an unlimited supply of "one timers"

Your last statement here is one of my key arguments against their current approach. Conceptually, there are an unlimited number of "one timers", but the problem is they are pricing themselves out of access to those people very rapidly, IMHO.

 

[Eoghann]

Your last statement here is one of my key arguments against their current approach. Conceptually, there are an unlimited number of "one timers", but the problem is they are pricing themselves out of access to those people very rapidly, IMHO.

Is this where I copy/paste my rant about publicly traded companies, the importance of the quarterly sales call and their inability to look long term?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Your last statement here is one of my key arguments against their current approach. Conceptually, there are an unlimited number of "one timers", but the problem is they are pricing themselves out of access to those people very rapidly, IMHO.

Couldn't agree more...wait till an economic crash happens...and there should be little doubt that one is coming at an unknown speed down the highway.

Disney is thinking: "we'll
Just offer temporary discounts (and whine about it...as Iger did like an over tanned baby for three years)"

Well here's the problem, Mickey...it's a much more expensive base price now. And recessions, layoffs, investment collapses are in absolute numbers...they aren't "adjusted for inflation"

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Is this where I copy/paste my rant about publicly traded companies, the importance of the quarterly sales call and their inability to look long term?

I already assumed you were thinking it.