2057?

[rigsby25]

I love the idea of an assisted living vacation home! Our children and grandchildren are sure to come visit.

 

[Dean]

Does anyone think that, as the 2042 date approaches, current owners will at some point be given a chance to extend their "ownership" for more $$$? I know no one knows, but what is your gut feeling on this?

Not a chance IMO. Too many variables to make it work. But to me the more interesting question is how things will work the last few years of any given resort regardless of when it ends. Since there will be less units than points the last year, there has to be some way to ration the points.

 

[tubtruck]

The whole world will probably look like somthing off a mad max movie by then and given the oil will have ran dry its unlikly anyone other than locals on horses will be able to get there by then. Lets hope not anyway.

 

[jemiaule]

I can hear it now from Johnny inheritance child: " Man if only my parents had listened to Dumbo71 and his excellent advice we'd have more years to enjoy or we could have sold the thing. Instead all we can do now is use these contracts to start our fire."

In 2042 I will be 74 and still have 15 years left on my AKV contract, so I will have someplace to go.

My sons will be 40 & 42. If by then they do not have contracts of their own then my husband and I will have obviously failed at parenting!

 

[BroganMc]

I asked that question of my Guide the last time. The factual answer is the contract expires. The supposition is Disney will do something about reassessing to owners. The guess is whether any of that will work.

An interesting little factoid came to me in a recent National Geographic article this month. It gave more detail about why Disney can't offer ownership contracts in the form of perpetual deeds. All from the deals Walt made with Florida legislature way back when to guarantee Disney Corp. had complete control over the property. No one else can "own" a part of the land lest they get on the board to make zoning and other decisions.

 

[PSC]

I just asled my guide this very same question when I visited last week and added on some points. The reply was that Disney would take a look at the buildings and maintenance expenses and decide if they should keep the resorts open for a few more years, or just start over. What they don't want is a place where the yearly maintenance fees are so high that us old geezers or our heirs are burried and can't keep up.

 

[bluslag]

I think Disney will offer something to the contracts that will be expiring because they have such a great audience to draw from. Huge mailing list already available because we are all owners. Not to mentioned the lose of maintence fees that they will be losing all at once. I understand a lot of us will be to old to extend our contracts but who knows maybe we will want to so we can leave it to our family. I did find it interesting that AKL went back to 50 years and not the same time frame that SSR was at. When we bought BWV and BCV they had the same ending year as OKW.

 

[dumbo71]

I think Disney will offer something to the contracts that will be expiring because they have such a great audience to draw from. Huge mailing list already available because we are all owners. Not to mentioned the lose of maintence fees that they will be losing all at once. I understand a lot of us will be to old to extend our contracts but who knows maybe we will want to so we can leave it to our family. I did find it interesting that AKL went back to 50 years and not the same time frame that SSR was at. When we bought BWV and BCV they had the same ending year as OKW.

First, maintainance fees aren't something they would be losing. It isn't profit or gravy for DVC. Those fees are for expenditures to maintain the property. If they are pocketing the money that would be illegal and I'm pretty confident that isn't happening.

I also disagree that a lot of the owners will be old at the end. I'll be out WAY before the end and a likely scenario is that someone much younger will own those points. I truly believe that the majority of original older owners will be out or dead way before the end and those contracts will be owned by middle aged people. This is a guess but we'll see.

Now with the resorts having the same end date for a while (OKW,BCV,BWV,VWL) that lead me to belive that at the end term they would be done. Now with two different end dates with SSR & AKV this shows me that those older resorts will likely be done. They may do a total refurb and resell, who knows but as far as extending the life, I doubt that. They seem to be setting things up nicely so that when those resorts are done they will still have plenty of resorts operating. They seem to be doing as I suggest and trading up expiration terms on the newer resorts.

 

[fishermouse]

The whole world will probably look like somthing off a mad max movie by then and given the oil will have ran dry its unlikly anyone other than locals on horses will be able to get there by then. Lets hope not anyway.

Was kind of hoping there would be a monorail from my "assisted living room" by then! However we get there I doubt if it will take any type of oil, except maybe some castor oil to lub up us old farts.

 

[Knotty]

The buildings will be torn down, and new will be built.

They will be shot.

The area around BW/BC will take on a whole new look.

There will be 3-4 years the area will look like a war zone, but after the dust settles, you will see huge resorts built, in place of the villas.

mo money, mo money, mo money.

That land is to premo, to have simply 4-5 story structures.


HIGH RISE BABY!

 

[Duckfan-in-Chicago]

But to me the more interesting question is how things will work the last few years of any given resort regardless of when it ends. Since there will be less units than points the last year, there has to be some way to ration the points.

I don't see this happening. Of course this is all just speculation, but I know enough people who always like to be in a borrowing position so that if an emergency ever came up they wouldn't risk losing their points if they had to take a year or two off. I know if I still own there, I'm planning on running out of points at the BWV and VWL in 2041 to beat the rush.

 

[Dean]

I don't see this happening. Of course this is all just speculation, but I know enough people who always like to be in a borrowing position so that if an emergency ever came up they wouldn't risk losing their points if they had to take a year or two off. I know if I still own there, I'm planning on running out of points at the BWV and VWL in 2041 to beat the rush.

If everyone takes this approach there won't be enough rooms that year either, possibly the last 3-4 years. It's likely that borrowing will be limited or stopped the last year or two and almost certain that banking will be the last two use years. Any way you slice it there will be more points than units the last few years unless there is some type of rationing.

 

[fishermouse]

The buildings will be torn down, and new will be built.

They will be shot.

The area around BW/BC will take on a whole new look.

There will be 3-4 years the area will look like a war zone, but after the dust settles, you will see huge resorts built, in place of the villas.

mo money, mo money, mo money.

That land is to premo, to have simply 4-5 story structures.


HIGH RISE BABY!

According to Al Gore it will all be under water! Great place for a glass bottom boat ride.

 

[Mischa]

This is the greatest thread I've seen in a long time. Too funny!

In 2042 I'll be 77 and DH will be 91. He says he'll probably be dribbling and having trouble remembering who he is much less what Disney World is. So I vote for an assisted living/retirement place! That would work for me!

 

[Didney Daddy]

I will be 86, I am just hoping I will not be wearing diapers. The good news is that maybe we can get to cut in lines with our hydrogen powered wheel chairs.

 

[Boardwalker]

Remember, the golf course only holds 1000 happy haunts, so most of us will have to go somewhere else.
But Disney Adapts and in 2030 they are opening a new theme park just for us really old DVC members. On my Keys tour, they said there was room for twice as many.
What will the rides be? The shows? The name?
How about EPNOT... Experimental Prototype Nursinghome of Tomorrow?
We can go to the "Barely Living Seas" and "Honey, who shrunk my hairline?"

 

[bluslag]

My husband and I will both be 89 and not even sure if we will remember how to get to Fla. But by then they may have that memory thing all figured out.

 

[Duckfan-in-Chicago]

If everyone takes this approach there won't be enough rooms that year either, possibly the last 3-4 years. It's likely that borrowing will be limited or stopped the last year or two and almost certain that banking will be the last two use years. Any way you slice it there will be more points than units the last few years unless there is some type of rationing.

I'm not saying you will be wrong BTW, I just don't understand your POV. I don't understand where all these extra points are coming from? They're not allowed to sell more points than rooms. One thing this DVC program has done has created near 100 percent occupancy at all of these WDW hotels all year now. So if people don't get Christmas week in 2042, it isn't like the last year people MAY get stuck with Sept. Many DVCers plan/prefer on going in off seasons. Why would the last year or so be any different than this year or next year?

I've already demonstrated that I won't be competing for a room in 2042. I'd also guess that since you can't bank the points into 2043, that there will be a bunch of wasted points. If you have 200 BWV points and make a reservation for 195, are you going to care about 5 points in the last year? So there are a few ways why I think less points will be in the system in 2042.

I found it interesting that DVC could change their banking and borrowing rules. When you mentioned that possibility, I had never even noticed that in any of my contracts. I found it this morning. I've prob. read than section a dozen times in the past, but it never registered that they could do anything. In my mind, it was just like a bunch of other things that they have the legal rights to do, but never will, so I blacked it out. Now as for your belief that they get rid of the program 3-4 years early, I don't see the purpose of that either. If, hypothetically 20% bank, and 20% borrow points in 2041 (or any year for that matter), it's a wash, everyone is happy and DVC had to do nothing. I'd guess by that time their computer system may be a little more up to date, and they'd be better at tracking these trends.

Honestly, I hope in 2042 this is the biggest of my worries. It would be nice if everyone on this thread was around in 35 years to see who's right. If I'm wrong, I'll be big enough to admit it, and I'll buy a round of drinks for anyone who can find me at the CVR lounge.

 

[Dean]

I'm not saying you will be wrong BTW, I just don't understand your POV. I don't understand where all these extra points are coming from? They're not allowed to sell more points than rooms. One thing this DVC program has done has created near 100 percent occupancy at all of these WDW hotels all year now. So if people don't get Christmas week in 2042, it isn't like the last year people MAY get stuck with Sept. Many DVCers plan/prefer on going in off seasons. Why would the last year or so be any different than this year or next year?

I've already demonstrated that I won't be competing for a room in 2042. I'd also guess that since you can't bank the points into 2043, that there will be a bunch of wasted points. If you have 200 BWV points and make a reservation for 195, are you going to care about 5 points in the last year? So there are a few ways why I think less points will be in the system in 2042.

I found it interesting that DVC could change their banking and borrowing rules. When you mentioned that possibility, I had never even noticed that in any of my contracts. I found it this morning. I've prob. read than section a dozen times in the past, but it never registered that they could do anything. In my mind, it was just like a bunch of other things that they have the legal rights to do, but never will, so I blacked it out. Now as for your belief that they get rid of the program 3-4 years early, I don't see the purpose of that either. If, hypothetically 20% bank, and 20% borrow points in 2041 (or any year for that matter), it's a wash, everyone is happy and DVC had to do nothing. I'd guess by that time their computer system may be a little more up to date, and they'd be better at tracking these trends.

Honestly, I hope in 2042 this is the biggest of my worries. It would be nice if everyone on this thread was around in 35 years to see who's right. If I'm wrong, I'll be big enough to admit it, and I'll buy a round of drinks for anyone who can find me at the CVR lounge.

Don't worry about not understanding, DVC hasn't said what they will do. Let me try to make my thoughts simple. First look at the Calendar year 2041 plus Jan, 2042. That gives you a full range of use years. Ignore any banking or borrowing initially because in theory there are enough points to book the entire resort every year other than the cushion that DVD owns usually between 2 & 4%. Feb 2041 people would in theory have a year to use their points but Dec would only have 2 months but would be using 2040 use year points during 2041. That means there will not be enough rooms to use all those points, that is a hard fact. Thus the options of how to reduce the number of points vying that last year are relatively limited but include:

• hoping enough people drop out that it doesn't matter, unlikely.
• Allowing booking at other resorts and hope that will handle the overflow, also unlikely to work. And even if they did so they've have to make it a one way street.
• Some type of system were you reduce the number of points to be used during that time. Likely either a lottery or prorate everyone's points. They could also allow voluntary drop outs with no dues. In some way this general approach is almost certainly what will happen, it could be a combination of these options. I doubt DVC will extend the resorts ending date but if they did it doesn't change the basics of this discussion.

Other factors and possibilities that could also come into play but would not change the above options overall are:

• Limit use of points to non 2042 resorts and from non 2042 resorts the last couple of years.
• Encourage borrowing for use years prior to the 2040 use year.
• Limit or exclude borrowing from the 2041 to the 2040 use year.
• Elminate banking the last 3 years or so.

I know there are those on this board that think DVC will magically make it easy for members to use the points the last year or so in some way possibly by keeping the resorts open for an extra year but I think that is an extremely optimistic view to take. Also keep in mind that at some time in the early days, one could only bank 50% of the owned points, not 100% like currently.

 

[CinderellasSister]

Remember, the golf course only holds 1000 happy haunts, so most of us will have to go somewhere else.
But Disney Adapts and in 2030 they are opening a new theme park just for us really old DVC members. On my Keys tour, they said there was room for twice as many.
What will the rides be? The shows? The name?
How about EPNOT... Experimental Prototype Nursinghome of Tomorrow?
We can go to the "Barely Living Seas" and "Honey, who shrunk my hairline?"

That is the funniest answer yet!!!!!