2026 Dues Predictions and Questions

Anyone know if newer resorts tend to see more short 1-2 night stays than resorts open a few years? So many moved to Florida during the pandemic and now there are so many influencers wanting to say they stayed _____. Short stays result in more housekeeping than guests staying a week.

Honestly have no idea if this is a thing, but we were shocked at how many checked out of PIT after the first night. By night 3, really felt strange how quiet things were. We assumed most staying at that point were in the parks on longer stays.
I imagine stays at VGC and VDH are shorter. And stays in the new hyped up expensive point chart rooms are also likely shorter.
 

This actually brings RIV dues down many others!
Yeah, I was a little worried when I saw the big percentage increase in the school valuation for RIV, but if you make it to the end of article, it looks like RIV will be getting about a 61 cent credit for an overestimate last year. VGF also seeing a slight credit, while every other resort looks to have underestimated their taxes, ranging from 3 cents/point at PVB to 20 cents/point at BCV.
 
I am going to need someone to explain this to me like I am 5 years old. I get most resorts were under paid, but VGF and RIV overpaid. What is the impact on dues and by how much?
 
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Just look at this table. The numbers on the bottom line show the predicted adjustment per point. So for AKV, an extra 5 cents per point. For RIV 61 cents per point credit.

So if you own 100 points at AKV there will be an extra $5 to pay.

If you own 100 points at RIV you would get $60 back.
 
Hmmm. As I think about this a little more, I think you probably have to compare to what there was last year because, presumably, there is a debit or credit each year.

2024: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-for-most-walt-disney-world-based-dvc-resorts
2025: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...l-tax-rates-for-walt-disney-world-dvc-resorts

Both RIV and VGF, interestingly, had credits last year too - and those credits presumably brought down the estimated taxes for 2025.

So, let's take RIV as an example. The 2024 taxes actually owed resulted in a $0.40/point credit. Then, the estimated tax bill that went out for 2025 was $1.99/point. That bill, presumably reflected what DVD expected the tax bill in 2025 to be minus the $0.40/credit for overpayment on the 2024 taxes. Without that credit, it means DVD was estimating the 2025 tax bill to be about $2.39/point ($1.99+$0.40)

Now, DVD needs to calculate what the 2026 estimated tax bill will be. They probably have some formulas they use to do that - then, they have to either add the debit or take away the credit. So, for 2026 at RIV, you'll get about a $0.61/point credit. Because that is greater than last year's credit, assuming everything else in your dues were to remain equal, I think that would translate into about a $0.21/point reduction in RIV's dues. But, again, that were to assume that everything else - estimated taxes, operating, and reserves stayed constant year over year - and I imagine they will not. Still, it should help rather than hurt any growth in dues for RIV.

For any other resort, I think you probably need to look at the last year's credit/debit vs. this years. So, VGF's credit last year was actually about $0.18/point, while this year, it is $0.09/point. That means it will be getting less of a credit this year than it did last year, which means (holding everything else constant) dues would rise by the difference. So that will hurt rather than help any growth in dues for VGF.

Every other resort had debits each year and, there, you'd need to do the reverse calculation - if the debit last year was greater than the debit this year, it will help keep your dues lower this year and vice versa.

I think I'm looking at this right, but feel free to tell me I'm looking at this all wrong since I'm pretty new to this.
 
To add to my last post, if the amount of the credit or debit influences the formula for calculation of next year's estimated taxes, that could also impact the equation. So, for example, with RIV, if that $0.61/point credit (which comes after a $0.20 credit last year) causes them to change their formula on estimated 2026 taxes to now estimate it to be lower (or the growth lower), that could also impact the dues.

But, again, estimated taxes are just one piece of our dues, so I don't think anyone should get their hopes too high based off of this information alone.
 
Every other resort had debits each year and, there, you'd need to do the reverse calculation - if the debit last year was greater than the debit this year, it will help keep your dues lower this year and vice versa.
That reminds me of the hilarious language I hear every day working with the corporate finance teams... "So that's a tailwind to the forecast but the headwind we assumed was smaller than the budget assumption so overall we still have a headwind net net but with some favorable membership mix we're still beating our five-year plan since last year outperformed more than we're underperforming this year" etc., etc. What you said makes sense to me. I don't know if it actually works that way, but it makes sense!
 
That reminds me of the hilarious language I hear every day working with the corporate finance teams... "So that's a tailwind to the forecast but the headwind we assumed was smaller than the budget assumption so overall we still have a headwind net net but with some favorable membership mix we're still beating our five-year plan since last year outperformed more than we're underperforming this year" etc., etc. What you said makes sense to me. I don't know if it actually works that way, but it makes sense!
That is hilarious. And, you're absolutely right. Will be interesting to see what happens when the dues actually come out and whether any of this seems detectable in any way.
 










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