Based on the data, the opening window rates were not the lowest prices in 2023 for those common itineraries.
I checked the same charts for 2022. It was also not the case in 2022, except for:
- The Wish's 4-night cruises
- Alaska cruises on the Wonder, which were about the same 400+ days out as 75 days out. (I think it was plus or minus $100 on a $7,000 stateroom.)
I'd probably not use any data from 2021 and 2020 to make decisions about 2024.
In 2019:
- Alaska cruises on the Wonder were cheaper 400+ days out
- The Fantasy's 7N Western itineraries were about $500 cheaper a year out than in the 45 days before sailing
I'm sure there are certain ships and itineraries that are exceptions. But you'd have to go back to roughly 2017 to see all the ships' main itineraries definitely cheaper a year out than last-minute.
That said,
DCL is running around 95% cabin occupancy and around 90% total passenger occupancy this summer. Disney could decide that they don't need to discount at the last minute.
Royal Caribbean moved to this model in 2018, for example.