2023 resale price speculation

Unfortunately they do not use those fees for the website!!

No way to sort by use year without scrolling and scrolling.

Although Bill is not involved I feel like this is a good time for a quote from @RoseGold stating to fix the web site!! :)
Sorry...Not Rose Gold...But if you look at very top of their DVC page, Advanced Search allows sorting of listings, including Use Year.
 
You're assuming that there isn't a tipping-point of the average Disney guest becoming aware that you can rent DVC points and stay at a deluxe resort for less than half of the rack rates. When we reach that inflection point, you'll see Disney intervene. For my personal experience, 1 in 100 would be a generous overestimate for how many people I know that are aware you can 'rent' DVC points. When the majority are aware, we'll see $/point rocket or Disney intervene with restrictions.
I think 1 in 100 is probably the upside of how many would do it. Renting points from sketchy 3rd parties with no opportunity to cancel ever isn’t for everyone or actually almost anyone.

And the savings these days are often pathetic.

And in rare cases, negative.
 
Most mutual funds are over-exposed to Chinese tech?
Depends on what that means.

But if you own an SP500 index fund, about 7% of that is AAPL. They are first and foremost a hardware company. I don't think most people would consider them "Chinese tech." But at the moment their hardware is generally assembled in China.

From where I'm sitting, the primary concern is the friction China has been adding to the supply chain. Most recently that's been in the form of zero-covid, but based on the saber rattling from Xi Jinping, I will not be surprised to see that friction increase. This trend has been going on for a while, and that's why you see a lot of companies adopt the ABC strategy over the past several years: Anywhere But China.
 

I've said it in other discussions and I'll say it here. If my contracts tank to $0 on the resale market, I will still be happy knowing that I can stay at my home resorts for the next 40+ years. If the rental market tanks, or the price of airfare explodes, I will enjoy my staycations at Aulani for 4 months out of the year using all of my points there and be happy. Everyone needs to take a breath and enjoy your points! The Disney experience, along with the economy will ebb and flow but the magic is ultimately what I make of it. Aloha and Happy Holidays!
 
Depends on what that means.

But if you own an SP500 index fund, about 7% of that is AAPL. They are first and foremost a hardware company. I don't think most people would consider them "Chinese tech." But at the moment their hardware is generally assembled in China.

From where I'm sitting, the primary concern is the friction China has been adding to the supply chain. Most recently that's been in the form of zero-covid, but based on the saber rattling from Xi Jinping, I will not be surprised to see that friction increase. This trend has been going on for a while, and that's why you see a lot of companies adopt the ABC strategy over the past several years: Anywhere But China.
Gotta love Taiwan, but they have Ukrainian-like risks.

I have some exposure to AAPL, but less than SPY due to my portfolio’s tilt towards value. I’m okay not hitting home runs as long as my strikeouts are replaced with some singles.

If I’m investing in the S&P 500, it’s because of the bottom 490. The top 10 are likely to underperform over the coming years.
 
Many S&P 500 companies have exposure to overseas economies. Tech companies even more so. Strong dollar weakens their profits. China, meaning Xi, is always a risk. Stay diversified. Stay long. And remember that rule of law, property rights, and democracy matters. In both our ability to live prosperous lives and as investors.
 
Most mutual funds are over-exposed to Chinese tech?
It depends on if exposure is defined by where the company is located or where revenues are earned. Sure, the Chinese have the second largest market economy. But ours is first and we are just 1/4 of the world’s market cap. But with just 4% of the world’s population, that’s not too shabby.
 
People will always call for a narrative whether bear or bull. I get the sarcasm and smugness of your comment, but you can't contest any of the raw data highlighting the inevitable turmoil for the macroeconomic picture.
There's always turmoil. But it's a long way from that to rhetoric like "worst macroeconomic conditions maybe ever" and "Lehman x10".
 
There's always turmoil. But it's a long way from that to rhetoric like "worst macroeconomic conditions maybe ever" and "Lehman x10".
This is the most telegraphed recession ever. Banks are more secure than 2008. Sure, things aren’t great. But it’s not the end of the world. Things will go on.
 
It was projected back in 2019 that the 50th would see a run up in demand and pricing of resale DVC. The pandemic derailed it somewhat but that is still what occurred and we are now on the other side of that event.

Is it the economy? But aren’t wages going up still?

Not at the rate in which inflation and other critical costs have over the past 2-3 years.

The difference is now more people are waking up to the recession and the downward trajectory. Then lets not forget the sporadic layoffs frightening individuals from taking on a recurring luxury expense.

Those realities are going to hit DVC as well

I dont see why insurance would increase for DVC when its not on the coast, is elevated land designed to drain water, and has essentially never had an issue in its existence as WDW as a whole. Also you are smack in the middle of the state to avoid any major hits. This year is about the worst you will ever see for WDW and I don't think there was pretty much anything reported for issues regarding damage.

A huge part of the DVC brand is “it isn’t a normal timeshare”.

And it will never be unless WDW closes its doors. People always talk about other properties but no other timeshare has the location of WDW within walking distance and the limited choice compared to other vacation spots.

- Annual dues. Annual dues have increased from 3.32 in 2001 to 10.73 next year! A 2001 dollar is worth 1.68 - DVC rates have increased at more than double the inflation rate. 180 points - almost enough for a 2 BR for 5 nights - is almost $2000 - or $400 a night.
Thing is that tracks though with actual costs its not like profit is being pulled out of that at an ever increasing rate its just more expensive to run these places. Inflation is the full economy not just a small segment. Flip side you pay way way way more now on things like a hotel, flights, or even camping than you did in 2001.

Yikes. So we can assume you've pulled all your money out of the market and made sure your bunker is fully prepped for the coming depression? Economists have predicted 17 out of the last 2 deep recessions. People have been predicting this current down cycle ("all the signs are there!") since 2010.
Not really when you consider the market lost like half its value between 2007->2009. Its been called more so since the start of the pandemic but downward trajectories have been held off by very aggressive moves to depress interest rates and print money to the general public.

I hear it every day more than I ever have in my career from companies cutting budgets.
 
Yikes. So we can assume you've pulled all your money out of the market and made sure your bunker is fully prepped for the coming depression? Economists have predicted 17 out of the last 2 deep recessions. People have been predicting this current down cycle ("all the signs are there!") since 2010.j
SouthJersey has asked me to store 5000 lbs of silver. Of course I said yes.
 
Not really when you consider the market lost like half its value between 2007->2009. Its been called more so since the start of the pandemic but downward trajectories have been held off by very aggressive moves to depress interest rates and print money to the general public.

I hear it every day more than I ever have in my career from companies cutting budgets.

Yeah probably off on the year, but I've been hearing it since long before the pandemic. As soon a bull market gets going, people will assume a big sudden downturn will be coming any day now. Eventually they're right of course. Obviously there are competing economic forces at work, which is exactly why it's hard to predict. Definitely some concerning signs, also some strong underlying principles.

Companies tend to cut budgets based on what's predicted to happen as much as what is actually happening.
 
SSR at 95 on Fidelity, geez. Poly in the 150s. Prices are coming down. There's so much on the market and there are always motivated sellers.

This will be interesting against the pricing for DLT and Poly2.
 
SSR at 95 on Fidelity, geez. Poly in the 150s. Prices are coming down. There's so much on the market and there are always motivated sellers.

This will be interesting against the pricing for DLT and Poly2.
I am actually lucky that the funds I plan to use are not coming until February

Gives me time to see the trend
 
It was projected back in 2019 that the 50th would see a run up in demand and pricing of resale DVC. The pandemic derailed it somewhat but that is still what occurred and we are now on the other side of that event.



Not at the rate in which inflation and other critical costs have over the past 2-3 years.

The difference is now more people are waking up to the recession and the downward trajectory. Then lets not forget the sporadic layoffs frightening individuals from taking on a recurring luxury expense.


ornadoe
I dont see why insurance would increase for DVC when its not on the coast, is elevated land designed to drain water, and has essentially never had an issue in its existence as WDW as a whole. Also you are smack in the middle of the state to avoid any major hits. This year is about the worst you will ever see for WDW and I don't think there was pretty much anything reported for issues regarding damage.



And it will never be unless WDW closes its doors. People always talk about other properties but no other timeshare has the location of WDW within walking distance and the limited choice compared to other vacation spots.


Thing is that tracks though with actual costs its not like profit is being pulled out of that at an ever increasing rate its just more expensive to run these places. Inflation is the full economy not just a small segment. Flip side you pay way way way more now on things like a hotel, flights, or even camping than you did in 2001.


Not really when you consider the market lost like half its value between 2007->2009. Its been called more so since the start of the pandemic but downward trajectories have been held off by very aggressive moves to depress interest rates and print money to the general public.

I hear it every day more than I ever have in my career from companies cutting budgets.
Google 1998 Kissimmee tornadoes & general history of region...
Central Fla hurricane danger & damage is not only water...It's wind....tornadoes, sometimes but not always, spawned by hurricanes ~Former area resident

PS. Insurance coverage also rises in FLA when some companies leave the state.
Currently, insururance cos have been greenlighted to raise rates & limit coverage as they choose.

https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-storms-cold-timeline-thursday/42252930
 
I think people just make it difficult and are going about it all wrong, it's really not that hard. Saying you have X number of points at $Y/point will invite a bunch of wishy-washy people asking about availability, many of whom will just ghost you after all that effort. Book a studio at a popular place for a long weekend, post it on FB and don't allow any changes/mods and you'll get people immediately requesting to book it.

This is exactly what one of the rental brokers told me to do a few years back when I had about 50 distressed points from a late cancel that I wasn't going to rebook before UY end. Book 1-2 nights on the weekends, I got slightly more $ per point than I originally thought I would and they were gone within a couple weeks of posting. I originally asked broker to post for $16 a point, and they said they could get me $19 and it worked out in my favor.
 
Google 1998 Kissimmee tornadoes & general history of region...
Central Fla hurricane danger & damage is not only water...It's wind....tornadoes, sometimes but not always, spawned by hurricanes ~Former area resident

PS. Insurance coverage also rises in FLA when some companies leave the state.
Currently, insururance cos have been greenlighted to raise rates & limit coverage as they choose.

https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-storms-cold-timeline-thursday/42252930

Except nothing happened to WDW which is designed to take on winds and weather.

Did an insurance company leave the state? That's not what was shared though it was that hurricanes will cause an increase

Someone speculated insurance will have some big impact on dues I simply don't see it.
 
Understandable that those of us who have lived (or live) in FLA are more aware of the weather & its impact on insurance.

Ins company rates are not regulated in FLA, but like everywhere they base rates not only on claims paid but probability of future claims. It's why they evaluate flood/fire risks when issuing policies.

No idea whether DVC dues will ever be impacted, but as well-built as it is, the idea that WDW is immune to the sometimes extreme weather in Central FLA is misguided. Every modern community in that area is built to current hurricane standards yet still incur damage. It isn't just a coastal issue (Vero) & it isn't just flooding.
Happily, WDW has been lucky with no major damage after recent storms (roofs, siding, fencing, trees downed...) that I've seen when park-hopping right after a storm passed.

In the end, DVC is a real estate investment with all of the risks & rewards of all such investments.

Yes, after most major weather events, some ins companies withdraw from selling insurance in FLA. It's a historic pattern going back to at least the 90's.

https://www.insurance.com/home-and-renters-insurance/home-insurers-leaving-florida
 












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