2015 Theme Park Attendance numbers!

[rteetz]

Actually no, not if the goal is that relative ranking. For that to work you have to use the same methodology for all entries so you can't just cherry pick one set of numbers.

Now there are rumors that Disney somehow gets the numbers fudged. If true then the whole exercise is worthless.

Rumors have been that disneys numbers are incorrect and have been that way for years. For example I had heard Tokyo Disneyland was higher than MK in 2014. Then this year both Tokyo parks were down? Then people always look at the large gap between Disneyland and DCA.

 

[rteetz]

But I'm pretty sure some of the numbers are not estimates at all but are actually taken from financial reports, so it's not just cherry picking one set of numbers.

Yes they do use financial report numbers.

 

[sheetz]

Sorry if it was mentioned in the full report, but how do they count people that park hop? If they spend half a day in AK and half in EPCOT is that counted as a person at both or 1/2 a person?

Nothing is actually "counted." As some of us are trying to explain the whole set of numbers are hand wavy, semi-fudged.

 

[rteetz]

Sorry if it was mentioned in the full report, but how do they count people that park hop? If they spend half a day in AK and half in EPCOT is that counted as a person at both or 1/2 a person?

A person at both as far as I know.

 

[rteetz]

Nothing is actually "counted." As some of us are trying to explain the whole set of numbers are hand wavy, semi-fudged.

I'm sure some counting is involved. Of course they don't do actual counting with Disney though.

 

[sheetz]

Rumors have been that disneys numbers are incorrect and have been that way for years. For example I had heard Tokyo Disneyland was higher than MK in 2014. Then this year both Tokyo parks were down? Then people always look at the large gap between Disneyland and DCA.

Yes, DCA's numbers pretty suspect as well. If you look at DCA's long operating hours and the crowds it gets based on wait times it does seem like it should be ranked higher than it is.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Nothing is actually "counted." As some of us are trying to explain the whole set of numbers are hand wavy, semi-fudged.

I understand not literally counted ... guess I should say, how do they tally for people like that. Do they give credit to both parks or split it?

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Rumors have been that disneys numbers are incorrect and have been that way for years. For example I had heard Tokyo Disneyland was higher than MK in 2014. Then this year both Tokyo parks were down? Then people always look at the large gap between Disneyland and DCA.

Be interesting next year after the Chinese Govenrment says there were 6.7 billion people at Shanghai Disney

 

[rteetz]

Be interesting next year after the Chinese Govenrment says there were 6.7 billion people at Shanghai Disney

Now it wouldn't be that high of course but from what I've heard yes the Shanghai officials are going to make this look like the most attended Disney park.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

A person at both as far as I know.

I read somewhere once (and fairly certain it came from someone at another site with a lot more knowledge of this than I) that they DO NOT count at both. I forget how they explained it, but they basically were saying that for this reason the Disney parks are actually visited more depending your point of view.

 

[sheetz]

I understand not literally counted ... guess I should say, how do they tally for people like that. Do they give credit to both parks or split it?

I think Disney's internal counts are based on which park the guest enters first.

But I honestly believe TEA's numbers are simply made to "look right."

 

[sheetz]

Be interesting next year after the Chinese Govenrment says there were 6.7 billion people at Shanghai Disney

It's funny but true, though. Pretty much all stats from the Chinese government are made up, so you can sure SDL will record well over 20 mil visitors.

 

[rteetz]

I think Disney's internal counts are based on which park the guest enters first.

But I honestly believe TEA's numbers are simply made to "look right."

Yes that sounds right about it being which park the person enters first.

The TEA is the only thing we have to go off of. While it may not be entirely correct it can't be crazy off in all areas.

 

[TwoMisfits]

Yes that sounds right about it being which park the person enters first.

The TEA is the only thing we have to go off of. While it may not be entirely correct it can't be crazy off in all areas.

Yeah, but if it's garbage in, it's garbage out...and I'm betting this year's numbers especially are garbage for the US parks. Disney needed the numbers to be good, so they are in the report, whether or not they are in reality. And it's easy for them to cover - they can change their methodology to counting every park hop as a park visited, they can count all expiring pass days not used to whatever park they like, they can count every extra event that puts someone at or near the park as a person in the park, etc. The only way these numbers would ever be "real" is if they actually counted # of tickets used at each park...but they don't, b/c then there might be some surprises (like all 4 Disney parks are not the most visited in Florida).

 

[sheetz]

Some insight into SDL's future attendance numbers from the LA Times.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-shanghai-disney-food-adv-snap-story.html

More than 960,000 visitors have tried out Shanghai Disney so far during the test period, according to Liu Zhengyi, deputy director of the Shanghai International Tourism and Resorts Zone. King, the Disney spokesman, said more than 90,000 people visited the park on May 1, a holiday in China.

If true (and that's a BIG "if"), 90,000 in one day is astounding considering how few attractions the park has.

 

[Josh Hendy]

On one of the podcasts, I believe Len Testa said or strongly implied that he puts very little faith in these numbers because (1) they're provided by Disney itself, and (2) Disney only provides them after first being shown the numbers provided by their competitors.

Not much methodology used by TEA there ... other than very broad second guesses based on airline and hotel booking estimates.

Len is the co-author of probably the best selling WDW guidebook ... so I assume he's got a lot of sources throughout Orlando. If he is scoffing at TEA numbers then I think you should have at least a healthy skepticism.

 

[whiporee]

So the parks have been extra crowded all year, but we're doubting attendance numbers that show an increase in visitors?

Okay.

And my understanding is while TEA does the best research around, Disney does not release its attendance numbers, period. So you can believe these numbers or not (and I do), but I'm pretty sure that none of them came from WDW.

 

[Planogirl]

Yes that sounds right about it being which park the person enters first.

The TEA is the only thing we have to go off of. While it may not be entirely correct it can't be crazy off in all areas.

I think that the same is true at Universal which only makes sense. We have been known to wander between the two parks several times a day since they are so close to each other. It would be strange to count each entry.

 

[Josh Hendy]

So the parks have been extra crowded all year, but we're doubting attendance numbers that show an increase in visitors?

Okay.

And my understanding is while TEA does the best research around, Disney does not release its attendance numbers, period. So you can believe these numbers or not (and I do), but I'm pretty sure that none of them came from WDW.

The biggest cause for doubt is that the non-MK parks have attendance as high as stated.

Specifically, I would like to know how partial days or park hopping days are counted, and whether Disney ... when they provide the numbers to TEA ... count unused, expired Magic Your Way days as "visits".

So you can believe these numbers or not (and I do), but I'm pretty sure that none of them came from WDW.

The TEA reports states over and over that they get their numbers from theme park operators.

For example:

AECOM obtains the figures used to create the TEA/AECOM Theme Index and Museum Index through a variety of sources, including statistics furnished directly by the operators ...

When operators share their information it is good for the industry ...

Our role is to share what the industry operators say officially or, if that information is not provided, to share our best estimate based on information that we do know as well as our professional experience. It’s possible that some are over-reporting their numbers. We can’t control that. However, all of the major operators are publicly owned and therefore obliged to report total attendance and financial performance information at the corporate level, even if they don’t break it down to the park level.

 

[rteetz]

Spirit over at wdwmagic says DCA numbers are under reported, and DHS numbers are higher than they actually are.

Those two things are things I could believe.