** 2010 Annual Dues Notices: BLT, BCV, HHI, VB, VGC...

[DVC Mike]

The first post now contains the 2010 MFs for all the resorts.

 

[colonialtinker]

Thanks Mike

 

[AnnaS]

Thanks Mike for posting.

I just finished transferring my disney reward dollars to my card and called MS to pay my dues (balance on cc of course).

 

[backyardponder]

OKW

Operating $3.2306
Reserves $0.7067
Taxes $0.9360

Total $4.8733

2.9% year over year
4.0% CAGR

Thanks. I didn't notice CAGR in the past and haven't gotten my BWV yet.

Is it meaningful to compare CAGR between older and newer resorts? I have to assume that a newer resort would have a lower growth rate due to the recent years of lower inflation compared to some of the inflation rates the older resorts have been through. Can someone explain what CAGR is and how meaningful it is?

Thanks!

John

 

[Granny]

Thanks, Mike. Please report others as they are received.

Assuming these are approved at the annual meeting here is the history of DVC annual fees over the years:

Year OKW VB(s) VB HH - BWV VWL -BCV SSR AKV -BLT VGC

2010 4.87 5.18 6.61 5.57 5.36 5.20 5.15 4.46 4.95 3.78 3.94
2009 4.73 4.97 6.41 5.36 5.21 5.04 5.00 4.34 4.85 3.67 3.82
2008 4.56 4.71 6.04 5.16 5.04 4.87 4.80 4.21 4.71
2007 4.40 4.39 5.63 4.98 4.85 4.73 4.63 4.12 4.62
2006 4.24 4.12 5.27 4.34 4.69 4.61 4.48 3.98
2005 3.86 3.84 4.87 3.86 4.41 4.35 4.27 3.83
2004 3.68 3.67 4.67 3.70 4.25 4.22 4.18 3.80
2003 3.49 3.37 4.37 3.69 4.11 4.05 3.97
2002 3.22 3.33 4.17 3.49 3.92 3.80 3.77
2001 3.13 2.70 3.98 3.32 3.83 3.63
2000 3.16 2.87 4.07 3.25 3.94 3.62
1999 3.16 2.82 3.99 3.18 4.02
1998 3.17 2.76 ---- 3.20 3.94
1997 3.14 2.90 ---- 3.16 3.84
1996 2.99 2.82 ---- 3.16 3.70
1995 2.84 2.76
1994 2.70
1993 2.63
1992 2.56
1991 2.51

Updated Doc's list (I'm sure he'll update his post soon).

 

[wildernessDad]

Congrats to AKV on their 1.94% increase, the smallest of all of the resorts.

 

[CarolMN]

Thanks. I didn't notice CAGR in the past and haven't gotten my BWV yet.

Is it meaningful to compare CAGR between older and newer resorts? I have to assume that a newer resort would have a lower growth rate due to the recent years of lower inflation compared to some of the inflation rates the older resorts have been through. Can someone explain what CAGR is and how meaningful it is?

Thanks!

John

CAGR is Compound Annual Growth Rate. It is defined as the year over year growth rate over a period of time and is generally used when talking about investments.

CAGR is a theoretical number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it grew at a steady rate (which of course never happens, at least in my portfolio, LOL).

If you want the CAGR formula, I'm sure you can google it. It involves stuff to the nth and is a bit more complicated than an ordinary calculator can handle.

I'm hoping someone (hey Jim, are you out there?) will just post the CAGR for all the resorts, or at least the ones that have been around more than a couple of years. It would be fun to compare them.

 

[DVC Mike]

CAGR is Compound Annual Growth Rate.

I'm hoping someone (hey Jim, are you out there?) will just post the CAGR for all the resorts, or at least the ones that have been around more than a couple of years. It would be fun to compare them.

I've added CAGR for BCV, AKV, VWL and OKW to the first post. CAGR is pretty meaningless for BLT and VGC.

If someone can post CAGR for the other resorts (from the last page of the mailer), we'll have them all.

 

[backyardponder]

CAGR is Compound Annual Growth Rate. It is defined as the year over year growth rate over a period of time and is generally used when talking about investments.

CAGR is a theoretical number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it grew at a steady rate (which of course never happens, at least in my portfolio, LOL).

If you want the CAGR formula, I'm sure you can google it. It involves stuff to the nth and is a bit more complicated than an ordinary calculator can handle.

I'm hoping someone (hey Jim, are you out there?) will just post the CAGR for all the resorts, or at least the ones that have been around more than a couple of years. It would be fun to compare them.

Thanks Carol. That helps. Although it would be interesting to compare CAGR between resorts, the only thing meaningful would be to compare like years. Comparing BWV to AKV would be meaningless. Do you agree?

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

John

 

[CarolMN]

I've added CAGR for BCV, AKV, VWL and OKW to the first post. CAGR is pretty meaningless for BLT and VGC.

If someone can post CAGR for the other resorts (from the last page of the mailer), we'll have them all.

Using the CAGR calculator from Investopedia, I'm getting some different CAGR numbers than you and Jim. Maybe it's just rounding. Calculator gives two decimal places.

OKW = 3.55%
VWL = 3.69%
BCV = 3.98%
BWV = 2.68%
SSR = 2.71%
AKV = 2.33%

Too lazy to do VB & HHI

I agree CAGR for BLT & VGC aren't meaningful - not enough history. I would add AKV to that list as well.


P.S. I feel a little better about paying the high dues for BWV since the CAGR is low even though it is one of the older DVC resorts. When I have time, I'll do a CAGR on the inflations rates (CPI) for the same period and see how it compares.

 

[CarolMN]

Best I can do for inflation is use the CAGR on the CPI index. Latest data available is October 2009 (216.12).

So if I use October 1996 (158.3) as a start place to compare BWV, the CAGR for CPI is 2.42%. Not a perfect cpomparison since we have 14 periods for BWV dues and 13 for CPI.

If I use October 2004 to start (190.3) to compare SSR, the CAGR for the CPI is 2.51%

Anyway, it appears that BWV & SSR dues are increasing slightly faster than the rate of inflation.

I used Historical CPI to get the index data for the CPI.

 

[DVC Mike]

Using the CAGR calculator from Investopedia, I'm getting some different CAGR numbers than you and Jim. Maybe it's just rounding.

I posted the CAGR numbers as published by DVC.

 

[tjkraz]

That's one of the reasons precisely why it's so low. Not as much to maintain/repair/fix/upgrade/paint than the older resorts.

Not true. From the very start owners are contributing to a reserve fund which is used to fund projects scheduled to occur 10-20 years down the road.

The main reason that BLT dues are lower than others is because the point charts are much higher. Higher nightly point costs means there are more points in the system. The more points you have sharing the cost of dues, the lesser burden each point carries.

 

[hakepb]

Not true. From the very start owners are contributing to a reserve fund which is used to fund projects scheduled to occur 10-20 years down the road.

The main reason that BLT dues are lower than others is because the point charts are much higher. Higher nightly point costs means there are more points in the system. The more points you have sharing the cost of dues, the lesser burden each point carries.

Exactly, look at points per room per week * annual dues
2010 Dream season 2BR:
BLT LV: 354*$3.78=$1338.12
SSR/THV: 285*$4.46=$1271.10

 

[Petraman]

Doesn't look too bad. Haven't received any info on SSR yet.

The bad thing about 2010 is not the increase on dues, but the change in points for weekdays/weekend. I ran the numbers, and for those of us who have avoided coming on weekends, you will use more points on every single resort compared to last year... and even if you stay one weekend night you still will pay more everywhere for 2010.
I understand the balanicing out of the occupancy, but one of the best perks promised when we bought was that the overall points to book a resort would never go up, only the annual dues. Unfortunately due to this change, you HAVE to stay the whole weekend to use the same points. Hope that makes sense

 

[SSR]

Tim - thanks for the clarification on the BLT dues. Now, if I could only remember our guide's name I'd email him and let him know the explanation he gave us was wrong. Oh well. Can't expect them to know everything I guess.

 

[DebbieB]

I received my BWV announcement today. One interesting statistic - If you divide the total budget by the per point total, you get 4,888,854 points (383 vacation homes, 12765 per room).

I'll have to try to dig up my 2009 announcement to see where the differences are on a cost component basis. The capital reserve fund balance is approx $17.7 million, it will be interesting to see what that was last year considering the renovations done this year.

 

[tgj]

Being a frugal type... SSR becomes my favorite resort even more at this time of year!

Seems like they're going to be expanding the Paddock Pool and adding a wet play area! Certainly an overdue addition...

 

[DebbieB]

Found my 2009 BWV budget. 2009's capital reserve balance was $25.5 million, they collected $3.8 million in 2009 dues for capital reserves. 2010 reserve balance is $17.7 million. So this year's work was about $11.6 million.

In looking at the cost components, housekeeping actually went down slightly, from $4.28M to $4.08M. The total was almost even - $17,776M for 2009 ($3.6361 per pt), $17,790M for 2010 ($3.6390 pp). The capital reserves is where it jumped - $3.765M for 2009 (.7764 pp), $4.488M for 2010 (.9181 pp). I guess that was to replenish the fund for the renovations done this year. Estimated taxes went from $.9501 pp to $.9498 pp.

 

[jharrowell]

Thanks for posting this, we usually don't get the info until January over here in the UK (at least I haven't so far).

If I've done my maths correctly then my monthly dues will go from $119 and change to $122.68ish. Seems reasonable.