I've kind of been saying this all along. Even if every room at every disney resort is booked up full due to all of the promos disney has run (mostly free dining, which also accounts for the ADRs being booked up as well... and then the only blackout period for the free dining is pretty much while pop warner is there so they are filling a ton of value and moderate rooms that might otherwise go unfilled without the free dining promo) but none of the offsite hotels are that full, the parks still won't be that full. Park capacity is way beyond hotel capacity. Universal is running promos through end of March (they keep going through my FB feed). It was slow in the summer, it is slow right now (and I know everyone says this is a slow time but i went September 19-26 in 2014 and the place was packed, the party was packed, everything felt packed! I did fine with FP's on what we wanted to ride but I was not expecting the amount of waits I saw posted at most of the rides) and I don't see why everyone thinks it will SUDDENLY be packed first two weeks of December. Josh at easywdw said he is basically no longer doing crowd calendars because it is impossible to predict and anyone who is posting them is making a wild guess... that Disney had previously been releasing crowd information to bloggers but has been tight lipped for the past several months, probably because attendance is down and they do not want to post the numbers about exactly how much because it might freak out investors.
Attendance is down for a lot of reasons - foreigners can't afford it due to their own economies, the zika virus thing and honestly the alligator thing didn't do them any favors either. Disney has also been raising prices like gangbusters lately and they may have found the point at which attendance starts to finally decline in response. This $79 admission for up to 6 people with an AP thing is not something I've heard of before IMO and is a sure sign to me that attendance is still down and predicted to be down for the near future (through the end of the month). The loss of MSEP right before the christmas season says to me that they are not expecting enough admission to carry the costs on it either. I think we are going to see an uptick for food & wine though, people love that and it runs concurrently with
MNSSHP, which makes it a GREAT time to go (we went before F&W opened last time...or it opened on our last friday, but that is not something kiddo would enjoy so we ignored it... F&W is opening much earlier this year). I think that is why we are seeing more FP+ gone at the 30 day window, like peter pan... also because that falls over a holiday weekend.
Anyway early december has always been a good time to go. moderate crowds (to me "low" crowds are like, january/february when the weather is cold and miserable and there is nothing going on special at all) with all the christmas stuff. I expect it will be like that. I don't think suddenly everyone who didn't go over the summer or in the fall is going to go that week. I think we are seeing a trend. JMHO of course, I could be talking out my butt.