1BR Villas?

[muppets3d]

I think December is just where it is the worst - see my last post.

If you compare savings using points instead of cash rates, September is right behind December last I checked. And, again, September used to be one of those months people didn't go to WDW because kids were back in school. Well, you've got a lot of Disney adults and probably even plenty of families willing to take kids out of school for a week in September. And, with the points being the lowest and savings over rack rates, why not? Of course, still pretty darn hot and in the middle of hurricane season, so it isn't for me, but I understand the appeal.

Rack rates are fugazi.

 

[IsDVCForMe?]

So all you've proven is it doesn't matter what the point difference is, they'll still be hard to book. Simply because there are only 18 of them and thousands of AKV members. Thank you!

Right. I’m not going for them. I’d rather less points for the resort and savanna views. And you are quite welcome happy human being!

 

[airjay75]

Rack rates are fugazi.

Agreed, to an extent. But, if the savings over rack rates are already at a maximum and they aren't discounting it like they are in summer, it is indicative of demand imbalances IMO.

 

[muppets3d]

Right. I’m not going for them. I’d rather less points for the resort and savanna views. And you are quite welcome happy human being!

As you're probably aware, they took points away from savanna views and gave them to club level for the '27 chart. Which I think is good for the membership at-large.

 

[IsDVCForMe?]

As you're probably aware, they took points away from savanna views and gave them to club level for the '27 chart. Which I think is good for the membership at-large.

Yes, well aware. Hope however they switch points, it amounts to less for resort and savanna views. Thanks for listening!

 

[Mirabell Rose]

So all you've proven is it doesn't matter what the point difference is, they'll still be hard to book. Simply because there are only 18 of them and thousands of AKV members. Thank you!

Disagree. The studios could be the same point value as regular standard and simply be the last ones to be rented. Studios sell out the quickest so they likely will still rent and the benefit would be spread across all owners.

 

[WinterSolider]

Rack rates are fugazi.

Rack rates are a proxy for demand.

 

[muppets3d]

Rack rates are a proxy for demand.

On the hotel side perhaps but even then not really because nearly everyone books some sort of package deal. Certainly not on the DVC side.

 

[muppets3d]

Disagree. The studios could be the same point value as regular standard and simply be the last ones to be rented. Studios sell out the quickest so they likely will still rent and the benefit would be spread across all owners.

Maybe they should do that then. Some people who book resort view studios or 1 bedrooms will be given rooms on the giraffe or ostrich trails. Their rooms will just be smaller.

 

[WinterSolider]

On the hotel side perhaps but even then not really because nearly everyone books some sort of package deal. Certainly not on the DVC side.

Okay I'll make one more attempt at explaining this.

1. Cash Prices are a Direct Reflection of Organic Demand
In the cash marketplace, room availability remains roughly equal throughout the year. Because supply is static, the transparent, publicly available cash prices act as the sole mechanism to balance the quantity demanded. Therefore, when cash prices rise during periods like spring break or Christmas, it is not arbitrary; it is a direct, quantifiable measurement of increased organic consumer demand for that specific timeframe. The cash price is the mathematical translation of how badly people want to travel at that time.

2. The DVC and Cash Populations Share Identical Demand Curves
There's no reason to assume that demand patterns between cash guests and points guests are anything other than homogenous. The desire to travel during holidays, school breaks, or prime weather seasons does not change simply because of the currency the guest is using to book the room. If underlying seasonal demand spikes for a cash guest, it inherently spikes for a points guest.

3. The Structural Obligation to Balance
Disney has a mandate to balance the points charts to ensure the quantity of rooms demanded by timeshare members is equalized throughout the year. Because the points population has the exact same seasonal demand spikes as the cash population (Premise 2), the property owner must use the points chart exactly how the open market uses cash prices: raising the "cost" during peak times and lowering it during off-peak times to flatten the demand curve.

 

[IsDVCForMe?]

Okay I'll make one more attempt at explaining this.

1. Cash Prices are a Direct Reflection of Organic Demand
In the cash marketplace, room availability remains roughly equal throughout the year. Because supply is static, the transparent, publicly available cash prices act as the sole mechanism to balance the quantity demanded. Therefore, when cash prices rise during periods like spring break or Christmas, it is not arbitrary; it is a direct, quantifiable measurement of increased organic consumer demand for that specific timeframe. The cash price is the mathematical translation of how badly people want to travel at that time.

2. The DVC and Cash Populations Share Identical Demand Curves
There's no reason to assume that demand patterns between cash guests and points guests are anything other than homogenous. The desire to travel during holidays, school breaks, or prime weather seasons does not change simply because of the currency the guest is using to book the room. If underlying seasonal demand spikes for a cash guest, it inherently spikes for a points guest.

3. The Structural Obligation to Balance
Disney has a mandate to balance the points charts to ensure the quantity of rooms demanded by timeshare members is equalized throughout the year. Because the points population has the exact same seasonal demand spikes as the cash population (Premise 2), the property owner must use the points chart exactly how the open market uses cash prices: raising the "cost" during peak times and lowering it during off-peak times to flatten the demand curve.

Your first 2 points were easily understood in your initial posts. And I would have assumed the same. I’m not familiar with the last point but I’ll take your word for it lol.

 

[muppets3d]

Okay I'll make one more attempt at explaining this.

1. Cash Prices are a Direct Reflection of Organic Demand
In the cash marketplace, room availability remains roughly equal throughout the year. Because supply is static, the transparent, publicly available cash prices act as the sole mechanism to balance the quantity demanded. Therefore, when cash prices rise during periods like spring break or Christmas, it is not arbitrary; it is a direct, quantifiable measurement of increased organic consumer demand for that specific timeframe. The cash price is the mathematical translation of how badly people want to travel at that time.

2. The DVC and Cash Populations Share Identical Demand Curves
There's no reason to assume that demand patterns between cash guests and points guests are anything other than homogenous. The desire to travel during holidays, school breaks, or prime weather seasons does not change simply because of the currency the guest is using to book the room. If underlying seasonal demand spikes for a cash guest, it inherently spikes for a points guest.

3. The Structural Obligation to Balance
Disney has a mandate to balance the points charts to ensure the quantity of rooms demanded by timeshare members is equalized throughout the year. Because the points population has the exact same seasonal demand spikes as the cash population (Premise 2), the property owner must use the points chart exactly how the open market uses cash prices: raising the "cost" during peak times and lowering it during off-peak times to flatten the demand curve.

You are now conflating "cash prices" and "rack rates" which are two different things in an attempt to be correct. Goodbye.

 

[WinterSolider]

I’m not familiar with the last point but I’ll take your word for it lol.

In case you're curious (emphasis mine):

Demand Balancing: In establishing the rules and regulations which govern the Home Resort Reservation Component of the Club central reservation system and the DVC Reservation Component of the Club central reservation system, the Management Company and BVTC, respectively, have taken into account the location and anticipated relative use demand for each DVC Resort and have used their best efforts, in good faith and based upon all reasonably available evidence under the circumstances, to further the best interests of the Club Members taken as a whole with respect to their opportunity to use and enjoy the Vacation Homes and facilities at their Home Resort and at each other DVC Resort. Both the Management Company and BVTC shall periodically make such adjustments or amendments to their respective reservation components in order to respond to actual Club Member use patterns and changes in Club Member use demand for existing Vacation Homes and facilities. In addition, BVTC reserves the right, with respect to the DVC Resort Agreement for the Aulani Resort, to charge an in-bound exchange fee for the Aulani Resort if it experiences higher than anticipated use demand relative to the other DVC Resorts.

......

DVC Vacation Points: The number of DVC Vacation Points required to make reservations at a DVC Resort from any other DVC Resort is determined by BVTC in its sole, absolute, and unfettered discretion from year to year and based upon the demand balancing standard
set forth above. As noted above, BVTC shall make such periodic adjustments or amendments to the DVC Reservation Component as are necessary in order to respond to actual Club Member use patterns and changes in Club Member use demand for Vacation Homes and related facilities of the DVC Resorts; provided, however, that in no event will BVTC reallocate DVC Vacation Points by more than twenty percent (20%) for any Use Day from year to year except for special periods of high demand based upon Club Member use demand (including use demand during special or holiday seasons), as determined by BVTC in its sole, absolute, and unfettered discretion. DVC Vacation Point schedules for each DVC Resort are made available to Club Members, and shall be updated and delivered to Club Members as required.

"Shall" in legalese means "must."

 

[thanxfornoticin]

In case you're curious (emphasis mine):

Demand Balancing: In establishing the rules and regulations which govern the Home Resort Reservation Component of the Club central reservation system and the DVC Reservation Component of the Club central reservation system, the Management Company and BVTC, respectively, have taken into account the location and anticipated relative use demand for each DVC Resort and have used their best efforts, in good faith and based upon all reasonably available evidence under the circumstances, to further the best interests of the Club Members taken as a whole with respect to their opportunity to use and enjoy the Vacation Homes and facilities at their Home Resort and at each other DVC Resort. Both the Management Company and BVTC shall periodically make such adjustments or amendments to their respective reservation components in order to respond to actual Club Member use patterns and changes in Club Member use demand for existing Vacation Homes and facilities. In addition, BVTC reserves the right, with respect to the DVC Resort Agreement for the Aulani Resort, to charge an in-bound exchange fee for the Aulani Resort if it experiences higher than anticipated use demand relative to the other DVC Resorts.

"Shall" in legalese means "must."

But isn't true they have been doing that? It might not be the way you want it or not fast enough, but they have regular adjustments to the point charts - annually in some cases.

 

[WinterSolider]

But isn't true they have been doing that? It might not be the way you want it or not fast enough, but they have regular adjustments to the point charts - annually in some cases.

There have been many years of inaction that has caused the problem to get out of control and now that they're moving they're moving too slowly.

 

[airjay75]

There have been many years of inaction that has caused the problem to get out of control and now that they're moving they're moving too slowly.

And my understanding is that their last big points chart adjustment was in 2021. That was before we knew how COVID would drastically change what people thought about remote work/school (for better or worse). I think that has really changed people's travel patterns, and enough time has passed to see how demand has shaken out from all of that. Hopefully we'll see one soon.

 

[Brian Noble]

There's no reason to assume that demand patterns between cash guests and points guests are anything other than homogenous.

I would quibble with this. DVC owners are a self-selecting subset of the "will pay money to stay in a WDW-owned hotel room" population, and the nature of buying a multi-year-to-decades product may differentiate the two in some ways.

For example, I suspect (but do not know) that DVC owners, as a whole, are older and less likely to have children in the house than the population of cash guests, as a whole. If that's true, then "school holidays" are more germane for cash demand than for DVC demand.

But I do believe that they probably track fairly closely.

 

[Brian Noble]

There's also the problem that, as I read the governing documents, DVC cannot reallocate across 1BRs and studios---at least, I believe this is true at resorts which have published maximum reallocation values for studios and 1BRs separately. I think that is all of them excepting CFW (and maybe PVB).

If I am right about that (always a dubious proposition) then the problem of under-pointed studios and over-pointed 1BRs is structural.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I would quibble with this. DVC owners are a self-selecting subset of the "will pay money to stay in a WDW-owned hotel room" population, and the nature of buying a multi-year-to-decades product may differentiate the two in some ways.

For example, I suspect (but do not know) that DVC owners, as a whole, are older and less likely to have children in the house than the population of cash guests, as a whole. If that's true, then "school holidays" are more germane for cash demand than for DVC demand.

But I do believe that they probably track fairly closely.

Strongly agree that DVC and non DVC Disney guests have discernible differences. They are not identical and that effects the time periods in which they prefer to vacation.

 

[Brian Noble]

If I am right about that (always a dubious proposition) then the problem of under-pointed studios and over-pointed 1BRs is structural.

However, I will also note that DVC has been willing to do such reallocations---in particular the treehouses vs. 2BRs at SSR. But, in that case, I don't think they violated the SSR 2BR max values, because they reduced them, so the max value is still true. I don't know whether or not the Treehouses had separately published max values when they were introduced. If they did not, then I think while the change violated the spirit of the documents, it may not have violated the letter.