100 pt Direct Blue Card Minimum September 17,2019

[sethschroeder]

Disney makes tons more from financing a direct purchase than the cost of the points themselves. Even if you drive some savvy 100-point buyers to resale, I wonder how many new buyers (not on the DIS) will end up financing 100 points when they’re told that’s the minimum buy in? How much does that work out to?

(This is also the same reason why I think they will not ever offer an extension on BWV or BCV)

Are they really going to let roughly 30% (38% of current inventory prior to Riviera and Reflections) of all point inventory expire? That is basically what you are talking about reentering the market all at once. (minus the 5% of that 30% that Disney owns, or whatever % that is)

I just can't see them letting all those points expiring instead of doing an "extension" for current owners. I could see them doing a 55 year contract where your current contract gets torn up, you get a bigger "legacy discount", and all the new rules hit you immediately (resale restrictions or whatever else is out there).

I see people talk about Disney pulling back these resorts but I haven't come across an actual reason why they would not be pre-selling these to existing owners years ahead of time.

 

[ELMC]

So a couple of things. I don't think the percentages are all that accurate for a variety of reasons. New construction over the next 20 years will dilute the market. OKW already has an extension issue with a portion of the contracts already being extended, so it is likely that something will happen there. This is just a hunch but I don't think Disney is particularly enjoying being part of the HH or VB markets, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a land sell-off there. Which just leaves BWV, BCV, and BR. That's not terrible, especially considering the smaller size. Beach Club and Boardwalk combined are roughly the size of AKL. So that's about nine million points hitting the market in 2042. By contrast, SSR is fourteen million. Given the premium location, it's not an issue.

To answer your question about why they would pull back the resorts in 2042...reworked points charts. Selling extensions is a short term small play. Letting the resorts expire and increasing the points charts by up to 50% and then selling the resort as new at an astronomical price is a long term mega-gain.

 

[TexasChick123]

I see people talk about Disney pulling back these resorts but I haven't come across an actual reason why they would not be pre-selling these to existing owners years ahead of time.

This is exactly what I think they will do. They will put these resorts “on sale” before the expiration dates. BWV and BCV will sell like hot cakes. I don’t know about BRV, but it may as well. They probably won’t have a lot left when the resorts actually expire. Here’s my guesstimate for the 2042 resorts:

1) new point charts
2) more expensive points
3) offer for sale prior to expiration
4) very little in the way of renovations

$$$$

 

[AaronEuth]

This is exactly what I think they will do. They will put these resorts “on sale” before the expiration dates. BWV and BCV will sell like hot cakes. I don’t know about BRV, but it may as well. They probably won’t have a lot left when the resorts actually expire. Here’s my guesstimate for the 2042 resorts:

1) new point charts
2) more expensive points
3) offer for sale prior to expiration
4) very little in the way of renovations

$$$$

Of the four WDW 2042 resorts I would guess they will revamp BW to be a new DVC resort. They are running out of prime locations for DVC and that is prime real estate in regards to park proximity. I would expect new point charts, and it to be larger for greater capacity.

Yacht and Beach Club is just a minor renovation away from being just Yacht Club, doubling their delux cash business at that location.

Old Key West owners will be offered extensions to 2057.

BR is the only one I am not confident in what they would do with it.

 

[Bearval]

I feel DVC will let the 2042 resorts expire, do renovations, up the point charts and cost for points. DVC has realized it was a mistake to offer any extensions and you will not see that happen again. Also when the non WDW properties expire I would expect DVC to sell them off since I do not think they ever worked out as DVC had hoped.

 

[Louis morrell]

Has this been announced officially by Disney or is it still a rumor? I know several guides have told this to their clients but how will you feel if this is only a rumor? The reason I ask is because the last time they did this there was a notification 2 weeks before on the member site. Here is a link https://www.disboards.com/threads/e...nts-to-qualify-for-membership-extras.3663779/

 

[HickoryDickory]

For those of you in touch with your guides this week for add-on points prior to 9/17, which resorts are available and which are waitlist only? When the change from 25 to 75 points happened it seemed like all resorts except Alauni and Copper Creek were waitlist only by this point. Wondering if there's as much demand this time around.

 

[Yinn]

For those of you in touch with your guides this week for add-on points prior to 9/17, which resorts are available and which are waitlist only? When the change from 25 to 75 points happened it seemed like all resorts except Alauni and Copper Creek were waitlist only by this point. Wondering if there's as much demand this time around.

RR, AUL, CCV, PVB are all available without waitlist.

Everything else is a “waitlist” which varies from a deterrent to an actual list. If your guide says it’s waitlist only, ask how long is the wait.

When I asked if he’d contact me if it became available, I was told no. That I’d just be placed on hold on the phone. My “waitlist” was being placed on hold for under 5 minutes” within 10 total minutes of deciding to be waitlisted, I had the contract I wanted. My credit card was charged and closing documents on the way.

 

[HickoryDickory]

I'm not surprised by the other three resorts being available, but I do find it very interesting Poly is available. I've noticed an increase in Poly resale contracts up for sale and staying on the market longer. Resale price seems to have gone down, too. List prices tend to be $150+ but the ROFR thread is showing more and more going under contract and passing in the $130's and $140's. I wonder what's going on with Poly?

 

[skippytx]

I'm not surprised by the other three resorts being available, but I do find it very interesting Poly is available. I've noticed an increase in Poly resale contracts up for sale and staying on the market longer. Resale price seems to have gone down, too. List prices tend to be $150+ but the ROFR thread is showing more and more going under contract and passing in the $130's and $140's. I wonder what's going on with Poly?

I don't think anything is going on with Poly. It's probably just part of the DVC lifecycle.

Poly's been open a little more than 4 years now. I would think it's pretty normal to see an increase in the number of people selling their contracts for whatever reason after a few years. People who financed are probably getting to the point where they can sell without coming out of pocket. Life can change a lot in 4 years as well, and priorities can change.

 

[katandmouse]

I'm not surprised by the other three resorts being available, but I do find it very interesting Poly is available. I've noticed an increase in Poly resale contracts up for sale and staying on the market longer. Resale price seems to have gone down, too. List prices tend to be $150+ but the ROFR thread is showing more and more going under contract and passing in the $130's and $140's. I wonder what's going on with Poly?

My guess is that since Poly was the one on sale before CCV, maybe it has a lot of foreclosures coming back to Disney now? If DVD has more foreclosure contracts than direct buyers asking for Poly, they wouldn’t need to ROFR much. Just a guess.

 

[Katie2]

RR, AUL, CCV, PVB are all available without waitlist.

Everything else is a “waitlist” which varies from a deterrent to an actual list. If your guide says it’s waitlist only, ask how long is the wait.

When I asked if he’d contact me if it became available, I was told no. That I’d just be placed on hold on the phone. My “waitlist” was being placed on hold for under 5 minutes” within 10 total minutes of deciding to be waitlisted, I had the contract I wanted. My credit card was charged and closing documents on the way.

What a joke, the only points “available” are the ones they can’t move without this false demand. More power to DVD, but I sure won’t be paying a premium to buy points that can plummet in value at DVD’s whim to modify restrictions. While timeshares aren’t an “investment,” I don’t want to sink money into a dark hole. For that, I leave it in my account and pay for rooms as I use them. The whole point of DVC is to hedge your costs and your potential future investment. If they keep restricting use, increasing point costs, limiting resales, etc., we will reach a point that the value of purchasing a DVC is completely destroyed. While I do love my Disney, I also am very aware that they will not be sending me maintenance fee checks in the event a recession hits. Be smart people, this is just another sales gimmick...

 

[Yinn]

I don't think anything is going on with Poly. It's probably just part of the DVC lifecycle.

Poly's been open a little more than 4 years now. I would think it's pretty normal to see an increase in the number of people selling their contracts for whatever reason after a few years. People who financed are probably getting to the point where they can sell without coming out of pocket. Life can change a lot in 4 years as well, and priorities can change.

This exactly. This is the dip, which most resorts experience. Once the volume levels off, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Poly start coming back up. The market levels seem to be about 50-60% of direct for resale for a steal/ROFR; and 70-75% of direct for average market. That puts Poly at about $165-175 avg market and a floor of about $141 for Poly after the dip. But for now, it’s the period of exodus.

 

[TexasChick123]

My guess is that since Poly was the one on sale before CCV, maybe it has a lot of foreclosures coming back to Disney now? If DVD has more foreclosure contracts than direct buyers asking for Poly, they wouldn’t need to ROFR much. Just a guess.

Foreclosures is my guess as well.

 

[Hjs33]

Of the four WDW 2042 resorts I would guess they will revamp BW to be a new DVC resort. They are running out of prime locations for DVC and that is prime real estate in regards to park proximity. I would expect new point charts, and it to be larger for greater capacity.

Yacht and Beach Club is just a minor renovation away from being just Yacht Club, doubling their delux cash business at that location.

Old Key West owners will be offered extensions to 2057.

BR is the only one I am not confident in what they would do with it.

I think they will offer extensions to BR to line it up with CCV and then combine them together when they expire together in 2068. BR has about 2 million points and CCV has 3 million. Those are both very small for a DVC resort. Together they have about the same number of points as Boardwalk.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I do agree with you. And I always split my direct purchases. But one thing to mention is that the direct closing costs keep going up and up (what doesn't). The last two 50 point contracts I bought had closing costs of ~$560 each (that is no financing, closing costs are more with financing, too), so it adds >$500 ($10/point, so one needs to make sure the market premium on 50 points is >$10/point).

Not to get too nit-picky on the math here, but the closing costs don't have quite as negative of an effect when splitting up your contract as you laid out there.

It's true that $500 is $10/point on a 50 point contract. But that would, in theory, mean that you only need the market premium on 50 points to be about $5 per point in this scenario.



If you bought the contract as a single, 100 point contract, you'd still be paying closing costs for that one contract. So let's say you had to pay $500 for that single contract.

If you break it up into two, 50 point contracts, you are now paying $1000 in closing costs.

So you are buying the same 100 points, for $500 more ($1000 - $500). Which is only a $5 per point increase.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

I need help getting off this seesaw I’m on. I can’t decide if taking the leap for direct is worth it. I’m not looking for someone to tell me what to but rather what you would do.

I’ve seen sales on fidelity that would put the cost of CCV at $162/pt which means a $4570 premium to go direct. I really wanted to dip my toes with a resale to start but with this minimum increase I’m getting FOMO bad. If I end up going direct I’m going to go from looking to afford 125 points to only being able to afford 75.

We won’t be going every year at that point so the immediate benefit of AP’s won’t matter (nor would they matter anyway cause even IF we went every year we wouldn’t need enough tickets to make it worth it).

I can’t help but feel that holding $4500 (at the likely very least) and being able to get to our desired point total is more important than any of the member benefits (save the ability to book future resorts with my direct points which is what I’m really hung up on).

 

[ScubaCat]

I’ve seen sales on fidelity that would put the cost of CCV at $162/pt which means a $4570 premium to go direct. I really wanted to dip my toes with a resale to start but with this minimum increase I’m getting FOMO bad. If I end up going direct I’m going to go from looking to afford 125 points to only being able to afford 75.

Do you think DVC is worth it for an every-other-year trip? Dealing with booking far in advance, annual maintenance fees, etc.? How much FOMO are you talking about anyway if you're only going every other year? These are just questions to ask yourself; not meant as an interrogation!

We won’t be going every year at that point so the immediate benefit of AP’s won’t matter (nor would they matter anyway cause even IF we went every year we wouldn’t need enough tickets to make it worth it).

Ah, but what if you stagger an annual trip by a week so you can get 2 trips with one AP? Could be cheaper, and you get the pictures.

The plot thickens...

 

[CanadaDisney05]

Ah, but what if you stagger an annual trip by a week so you can get 2 trips with one AP? Could be cheaper, and you get the pictures.

The plot thickens...

this is our plan exactly. Gold pass at $699 vs $1,000 for 2x 10 day single park tickets

 

[E2ME2]

Do you think DVC is worth it for an every-other-year trip? Dealing with booking far in advance, annual maintenance fees, etc.? How much FOMO are you talking about anyway if you're only going every other year? These are just questions to ask yourself; not meant as an interrogation!



Ah, but what if you stagger an annual trip by a week so you can get 2 trips with one AP? Could be cheaper, and you get the pictures.

The plot thickens...

Yuup - we do this regularly.
2 January trips on 1 AP (Late Jan in Year 1, Early Jan in Year2, then No Park Tix in Year 3)
We've been very successful, and happy with this approach. in the "Year 3"s we venture out and see other parts of Florida!