100 pt Direct Blue Card Minimum September 17,2019

[dropd]

I really don't think it's proper to use the *current* DVC AP discount in any sort of savings calculation. The current "discount" has been this large for like less than 3 months, and I guarantee it won't stay that large for long. Basing a decision on something like that doesn't make sense.

Agree with this in principle. When I was doing math on strategy about whether to do 75 direct I started with the current discount delta, and then lopped off a sizeable percentage of that to help hedge against future uncertainty. At the end of the day, you are counting on an educated (or maybe not that educated) prediction about what will happen next. That's true about ALL of these purchasing decisions.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

I personally would not/do not consider things that way.

I tend to discount future resorts because so many plans have been dropped from the table. Another possibility, though it is an unlikely event, but any resort could be dropped entirely from the system. So I have never bought a contract with a consideration for future any further out than resorts that currently exist. They are very upfront in their agreements that one should not count on future resorts and I have always taken that to heart even though now they highlight future resorts to encourage direct purchases. Again - way too many changes of plans in the past to count on any of that.

Rather, if I got to 2042 and now wanted to stay at whatever future resorts they had opened between now and then that is when I'd consider buying to stay at them then but I would not in 2019. I might not even like any of them or I might be perfectly happy with what is already here. Now if there was a resort I absolutely loved in any future offerings then I'd reevaluate. Or if I was still happy with most places I still had access to I'd likely I'd rent out my points and pay cash or some other version but I never have thought of sinking money into DVC promises for future offerings. Nope. No way. What is available in discounts today is much more valuable IMO than a concern of having a dozen options to stay at over two decades from now.

To be upfront other than a resale I just purchased all my points do currently allow me to stay anywhere but I'm going to mostly stay at what currently exists. And I always have a downsizing plan in my head. If I implemented it I'd keep the restricted resale and another small grandfathered contract or two just to have the qualified membership for discounts/perks, since I already have that. No thought at all to not being able to stay at promised future resorts as there would still be SSR, AKV, BLT, VGC, VGF, PVB, CCV and Aulani after 2042. As it stands we mostly rotate thru 3-4 existing WDW and VGC and then pop in a stay at others periodically. Yes, 7 resorts will still be more than enough and DVC resort promises get zero weighting in my consideration.

I see your point that if it come down to it buy what you want but I am working on a budget and cannot afford to A pay cash to stay at the resorts or B buy contracts to stay where I want.

22 years is not that far off and if we are full members today how could they go back on that and take away what resorts you have access to in the future?

My fear (and motivation for direct) that the current policy limiting resale buyers to specific resorts starting with Riviera eventually leading to resorts like BCV and BWV once they expire sounds like a concern of others too.

 

[dropd]

Love this table. How did you determine that RR "resale" price?

I should also clarify that, in my own calculations, I did not try to break down anything by contract years remaining since I view it as unlikely that I'll hold my contract to term, and also a calculation like that doesn't take into account time value of money. I tried to project out for just a few years ahead where time value effects are small. I would only view it as "worth it" to add on with 75 direct if I thought there was a reasonable chance of making a decent amount of the money back within 5-7ish years, plus whatever value I want to assign in order to enjoy any other direct perks, including the ability to book at Riviera and/or Reflections, specifically.

Based on my own valuation of all of this, I'd add on 75 at Riviera right now if I wasn't concerned about the uncertainty of the resale market for it.

(edit to clarify the time horizon I care about)

 

[Yinn]

Love the response (I forgot about the photopass benefit) but have a stupid question...Are those numbers based on 75 points? Ex: CCV $3150 / 75 points = $42 more per point for direct vs. resale?

Yes, it's all based on 75 points. We could go bigger, but then it diminishes the value of hybrid the higher we go. Plus, then it gets complicated in terms of taking into account incentives (ie, Aluani, Riviera)

Love this table. How did you determine that RR "resale" price?

RR was used based on a couple of market value calculators from various reseller sites. The value came out to $133/pt. Direct, it's $188 and drops down to about $172-$175/pt with mid tier incentives. This puts the resale at about a 25% discount for resale, which is in line with CCV.

I really don't think it's proper to use the *current* DVC AP discount in any sort of savings calculation. The current "discount" has been this large for like less than 3 months, and I guarantee it won't stay that large for long. Basing a decision on something like that doesn't make sense.

Not long term, but as per my note. If I'm a family of 5, that breakeven is 2 years for AKL. We can count it definitely for this year. And next year is an unknown, but I'd feel much more confident about it than 15 years from now.

 

[Yinn]

I should also clarify that, in my own calculations, I did not try to break down anything by contract years remaining since I view it as unlikely that I'll hold my contract to term, and also a calculation like that doesn't take into account time value of money. I tried to project out for just a few years ahead where time value effects are small. I would only view it as "worth it" to add on with 75 direct if I thought there was a reasonable chance of making a decent amount of the money back within 5-7ish years, plus whatever value I want to assign in order to enjoy any other direct perks, including the ability to book at Riviera and/or Reflections, specifically.

Based on my own valuation of all of this, I'd add on 75 at Riviera right now if I wasn't concerned about the uncertainty of the resale market for it.

(edit to clarify the time horizon I care about)

I did this as well, but felt it would overwhelm the general population. While I did find minor deviations, the majority of results weren't far off. The best model I found to use against DVC is actually to use models used for Option contracts. It takes into account the time value of money, beyond just simplistic NPV, Opportunity Cost, Inflation calculations (which I also did)

The unknown part for your strategy is still book value or resale value. So to account for that, I used historical average prices and projected out a resale of 10-20 years as well. But again, without building out a calculator for everyone here to account for everyone's plans...that chart is a simplistic view.

 

[dropd]

The unknown part for your strategy is still book value or resale value. So to account for that, I used historical average prices and projected out a resale of 10-20 years as well. But again, without building out a calculator for everyone here to account for everyone's plans...that chart is a simplistic view.

Another thing to account for is that there are generally somewhat reduced closing costs for buying direct, and that you can also put the whole 75 purchase on a credit card and get a sizable rewards/points balance depending on what card you use, which brings down the delta between direct and resale by a not-insignificant amount. To use Chase rewards as an example, if you typically spend chase points on travel you can factor in a ~4.5% discount off of the direct purchase price.

I'm still just not convinced that Riviera resale prices will at all hew to historical trends given the restrictions on resale Riviera ownership, and that holds me back. If I was more confident of holding onto the contract for many decades, that obviously wouldn't matter very much.

 

[katandmouse]

That is exactly my point. I don't know the math but I think that will leave a lot of people who did not get in before Jan 2019 on resale fighting for less resorts 20 years from now. At least with being grandfathered 75 points I know those points will not need to contend with that restriction and I can try for split stays.

My thinking is that this resale restriction is going to end up leaving everyone fighting for less L14 resorts in the future - especially the smaller and/or more popular ones. Now we have resales restricted to the L14, plus also all new and future direct owners who may want to trade in. In terms of 7 month booking, there are more eligible points than eligible rooms. Yes, direct owners will be able to book at RIV and new resorts, but if those new resort owners have a hard time trading out into the L14 (or 9 or however many), that doesn’t leave a lot of rooms at their resort to trade into. And once there are enough resale points only able to stay at that one resort, who knows what availability there will look like? I just think this restriction is going to be long term negative for everyone: mostly RIV resale, then L14 resale, then direct purchasers too. Or at the least it’ll just encourage “buy where you want to stay” and booking your home resort, which would also lead to less open at 7 months. Maybe (hopefully) I’m overblowing it, but I can only imagine it making availability issues worse, and eventually harder to trade into any resort.

...Anyway, back to the thread topic, I’ve been wanting to add on a small direct contract for perks, but we couldn’t justify the price difference for our original purchase, and since this would be purely extra points at this time - we really can’t justify it right now, and even moreso at 100 points. Still I was ready to add on anyway this week to get in with the 75 minimum, but DH was a hard no. He’s my Jiminy Cricket sometimes lol.

 

[DougEMG]

Yes, direct owners will be able to book at RIV and new resorts, but if those new resort owners have a hard time trading out into the L14 (or 9 or however many), that doesn’t leave a lot of rooms at their resort to trade into.

This assumes that DVC is going to balance the points going out with the points going in. When I was at the moonlight magic event over the summer I had asked the executives what they were going to do balance this and they didn't have an answer for me.

So imagine that there is no checks other then where you are allowed to book at 11 months and 7 months. There could be a lot of L14 owners booking into RIV leaving no rooms for any resale owners there to book after that 7 month window opens.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I see your point that if it come down to it buy what you want but I am working on a budget and cannot afford to A pay cash to stay at the resorts or B buy contracts to stay where I want.

22 years is not that far off and if we are full members today how could they go back on that and take away what resorts you have access to in the future?

My fear (and motivation for direct) that the current policy limiting resale buyers to specific resorts starting with Riviera eventually leading to resorts like BCV and BWV once they expire sounds like a concern of others too.

You could pay cash via renting out your points and then renting points to stay at any new resort you felt the desire to. That fits into any owners budget as it's not additional cash but leveraging your ownership and is why buying to stay at all options really isn't necessary. If budget is an issue then it's certainly the more affordable route to via paying more to have the direct trade assuming you aren't buying Riviera to mostly stay at Riviera but rather buying an existing.

The way they could remove a resort is completely remove it from the existing DVC entirely. There are provisions that allow that but it is all or nothing for the current resorts. I don't expect it for any WDW or even DL resorts. Offsite is always a different question mark.

 

[ScubaCat]

So imagine that there is no checks other then where you are allowed to book at 11 months and 7 months. There could be a lot of L14 owners booking into RIV leaving no rooms for any resale owners there to book after that 7 month window opens.

On the contrary, RIV resale owners will snatch up all the rooms at 11 months because that's their only option. So it cuts both ways. Granted RIV resale owners won't have much flexibility from that point forward, but that's probably yet another incentive to buy direct, which would mean "mission accomplished" with that restriction.

 

[katandmouse]

This assumes that DVC is going to balance the points going out with the points going in. When I was at the moonlight magic event over the summer I had asked the executives what they were going to do balance this and they didn't have an answer for me.

So imagine that there is no checks other then where you are allowed to book at 11 months and 7 months. There could be a lot of L14 owners booking into RIV leaving no rooms for any resale owners there to book after that 7 month window opens.

Oh, that is a good point I didn’t think of. I was imagining owners booking their home resorts first and then trying to modify their reservations to switch into different resorts. In which case their home resort room is blocked off until they finalize the switch, opening it up then.

 

[Yinn]

Another thing to account for is that there are generally somewhat reduced closing costs for buying direct, and that you can also put the whole 75 purchase on a credit card and get a sizable rewards/points balance depending on what card you use, which brings down the delta between direct and resale by a not-insignificant amount. To use Chase rewards as an example, if you typically spend chase points on travel you can factor in a ~4.5% discount off of the direct purchase price.

I'm still just not convinced that Riviera resale prices will at all hew to historical trends given the restrictions on resale Riviera ownership, and that holds me back. If I was more confident of holding onto the contract for many decades, that obviously wouldn't matter very much.

That's correct. Riviera is actually pretty attractive, even with the resale risks when those are factored in. But the calculations then shift from a buy model to a rent model as they're much shorter terms. I struggled with Riviera myself as the numbers made sense - even when padded 10%. Essentially Riviera can hit the price point of SSR on resale and you would need approximately 6 years of holding to be even with a rental. That changes slightly with how many points you buy, incentives, method of payment, etc. So it's a general statement.

Despite that, I didn't think it was worth the overall risk. CCV is a much better option (but I went with AKL due to silly things like emotions) I still have access @ 7 mo (and can walk if neccessary) but I also wasn't in love with the rooms at Riviera. And our specific travel times are projected to have some pretty good availability should we want it

Love the response (I forgot about the photopass benefit) but have a stupid question...Are those numbers based on 75 points? Ex: CCV $3150 / 75 points = $42 more per point for direct vs. resale?

One more thing to add. Some of my numbers are based on market values since ROFR is not being executed. That means the premium paid may acutally be a lot more. (ie, Poly has executed contracts at $130, but has market value of $163 / BRV has executed contracts at $88, market value of $119) Since I was generalizing, I went with market numbers. But this could skew the numbers significantly if you find a contract deal. So if someone is using the table as a rule of thumb on what to purchase, I would also recommend avoiding the resorts that ROFR is being passed on as you can probably make some aggressive offers in the resale market.

As of this post, the resorts that are currently experiencing buybacks: OKW, SSR, AKV, BLT, VGF, HHI, BWV, BCV are probably the ones you want to target for a direct purchase. This is because your low offer may be bought back, which may push you to make a higher offer anyway. This will close the spread a little.

 

[dropd]

Despite that, I didn't think it was worth the overall risk. CCV is a much better option (but I went with AKL due to silly things like emotions) I still have access @ 7 mo (and can walk if neccessary) but I also wasn't in love with the rooms at Riviera. And our specific travel times are projected to have some pretty good availability should we want it

I'm anchored on Riviera right now because for October UY (which is my strong preference to match my 2 resale contracts), there's nothing available direct that can be purchased before the 9/17 deadline except Riviera, Aulani, and CCV. Otherwise I'd be doing SSR or AKV all day. We're not very interested in CCV, and the CCV direct price is (I think) $210 which makes it a non-starter for me. I'm starting to gain momentum towards taking the plunge on 75 points at RIV but I'm not sure I'll make it over the goal line.

 

[Yinn]

I'm anchored on Riviera right now because for October UY (which is my strong preference to match my 2 resale contracts), there's nothing available direct that can be purchased before the 9/17 deadline except Riviera, Aulani, and CCV. Otherwise I'd be doing SSR or AKV all day. We're not very interested in CCV, and the CCV direct price is (I think) $210 which makes it a non-starter for me. I'm starting to gain momentum towards taking the plunge on 75 points at RIV but I'm not sure I'll make it over the goal line.

If you're really interested, push for AKV. I know AKV with Oct was available yesterday evening. My guide was trying to push me for more points, and then for an October UY - which I didn't want. Poly as well but that's $235. Your guide might say it's "waitlist only" but push through it. I was "waitlisted" as well and I held on the phone for a literal 5 minutes before I was given the contract. (If someone got ROFR'd, I'm sorry!!)

 

[dropd]

If you're really interested, push for AKV. I know AKV with Oct was available yesterday evening. My guide was trying to push me for more points, and then for an October UY - which I didn't want. Poly as well but that's $235. Your guide might say it's "waitlist only" but push through it. I was "waitlisted" as well and I held on the phone for a literal 5 minutes before I was given the contract. (If someone got ROFR'd, I'm sorry!!)

Ugh that’s the kind of thing that makes me mad. My guide swore that there would be no October availability anywhere but the 3 active resorts without waitlist before 9/17. Guess I have to call them again tonight.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

So based on this, it's easy for me to say - oh well I would get photopass every time.

I may have been mistaken on this. Can anyone verify if this is referring to a DVC member benefit or an annual passholder benefit?

 

[Yinn]

Ugh that’s the kind of thing that makes me mad. My guide swore that there would be no October availability anywhere but the 3 active resorts without waitlist before 9/17. Guess I have to call them again tonight.

Your guide isn’t wrong, mine told me the same thing. I then asked for the waitlist process. That’s when I found out it was minutes to check with someone (most likely ROFR Dept) so I was technically waitlisted. I then had to insist on the UY I wanted. It wasn’t forthcoming.

I may have been mistaken on this. Can anyone verify if this is referring to a DVC member benefit or an annual passholder benefit?

You’re right. I’m wrong. I was researching annual passes today. Trying to decide if a gold pass is worth it which then factored into my direct calculations.

Reminder to self. Don’t walk and chew gum at the same time.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

You’re right. I’m wrong. I was researching annual passes today. Trying to decide if a gold pass is worth it which then factored into my direct calculations.

Reminder to self. Don’t walk and chew gum at the same time.

No problem, just wanted to confirm cause if that was the case that's something I can use. We don't go enough to justify AP's.

 

[Yinn]

No problem, just wanted to confirm cause if that was the case that's something I can use. We don't go enough to justify AP's.

Oh it’s a rabbit hole. Because AP has benefits too, so then it goes into the value of those benefits. And whether there’s overlap or makes sense to just do one AP for photopass and the discounts etc. my SO says I plan too much...

 

[What_13th_floor?]

Oh it’s a rabbit hole. Because AP has benefits too, so then it goes into the value of those benefits. And whether there’s overlap or makes sense to just do one AP for photopass and the discounts etc. my SO says I plan too much...

Rabbit hole indeed. I've only been researching DVC for a short time but if I learned anything so far it is that the debate over resale versus direct is alive and well.