While there are many good deals on E-Bay, there are also many bad deals. I am constantly amazed at how many people are buying refurbished camcorders, computers, etc on UBid.com and then turn around and sell them for nice profits on E-Bay.
Unfortunately many who bid on E-Bay do not take the time to find out the true market value of a product. IMO this would be an example of that, someone trying to make a huge profit off an unsuspecting bidder. I doubt there will be a buyer as I can't imagine anyone who would have that kind of money to spend wouldn't also be more knowledgeable about the true value.
This is no different than those E-Bay sellers advertising 5-day OKW studios for what amounts to anywhere from $13/point on up to $20 or more while here on the DIS
DVC rent/trade board, points routinely go for, lately, in the $8 to $10/point bracket. With a range like that, is it even possible to determine a true value?
Now I'm not trying to start up the old debate about whether a point is worth $10, or $13, or more. Or that at $13 it's still a bargain compared to Disney rack rates. (Using that logic, than $10 is an even better bargain). Let's not go that route.
I'm simply stating that in a free market place, prices for the same product can vary widely. If you can sell gasoline for 1.39 a gallon while down the street it's only 1.19 a gallon, then more power to you. The buyer still has the choice. Maybe the guy further up the street is charging 1.59. As buyers it's our responsibility to determine, in our own minds, what's a fair market value. If I could somehow sell my current $20,000 auto to someone for $50,000, then good for me. But that doesn't make the 'market' value of that particular make/model of car worth $50k. I suppose a fair definition would be a market value is what half of potential buyers would be willing to pay, and what half would not be willing to pay. Of all the potential buyers of DVC, I doubt very seriously that "half" of them would be willing to pay $100/point. If that were true, Disney would be charging that right now.
So, in this case, does $100 represent the true value of DVC? IMO, no, absolutely not. Many have constructed spreadsheets (myself included) to analyze a DVC purchase, considering interest rates, fees, inflation factors, comparable hotel rack rates, etc. At $75/point the value of DVC is still there. At $100/point, the ROI just is not there.
Will DVC ever go for $100/point? Maybe yes, maybe no. As the years go on, inflation drives everything up. 10 years ago it was $50/point and today it's $75. In another 10 years maybe it will be $100. But also 10 years ago it was a 50 year investment. Today it's a 40 year investment. 10 years from now it'll only be a 30 year investment. How many today would still be buying at $75/point if there were only 30 years left? Many still would, but many others might not. Eventually the 'cost' will drop dramatically. How much per point would you be willing to pay if there was only 3-years left? The cost will drop, because the 'value' has dropped. (Value being years of usage). Over the years the cost has gone up, while the value (and by this I simply mean you now only get 40 years instead of 50 years) has gone down. People will continue to do cost analysis, compare price, usage, time left, taxes, interest rates, fees, comparable rack rates for other hotels, or other timeshares, and will determine in their own mind the value of DVC to themselves. As long as 'cost' does not exceed 'value', DVC sales will prosper.
Just my 2-cents worth, and all of course IMHO.
