Here some info from the National Weather Service (USA)
NOAAs 2004 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 50% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, a 40% probability of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAAs definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.
The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 6-8 becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of these becoming major hurricanes. These numbers reflect a predicted ACE index in the range of 100%-160% of the median, and indicate a likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.