i<3riviera
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ChipNdale8887
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I agree with you that it could Follow Copper Creeks MFs. Its only $.60 higher than AVK. Which if RIV was estimated high and we don't see many increases for a few years should be right in line with other resorts. I can also see if Disney orders new Monorails the VGF, Poly, and BLT MF's also seeing a nice jump bringing them in line with others. Really only Vero and HHI have reasons to be out of the norm of other DVC resorts.
iflyjetzzz
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When I read that, my first thought was the Simpsons episode about buying a monorail. (A bit of humor)
WestCoastDVC
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Super interesting analysis - thanks for sharing!
CastAStone
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Good Stuff. The motivation to not get fired is certainly something that would cause people to make these decisions.
Interesting too that CCV has since been passed by none other than BRV in terms of annual dues.
Unfortunately for owners I'm not sure that the new dues announced later this year will be very indicative of the future direction of dues for the resort because of everything going on.
Interesting too that CCV has since been passed by none other than BRV in terms of annual dues.
Unfortunately for owners I'm not sure that the new dues announced later this year will be very indicative of the future direction of dues for the resort because of everything going on.
ChipNdale8887
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I can totally see this. Covid has probably wrecked the estimated budgets of the DVC resorts for better or worse. I'd imagine operating costs will be down but then heightened cleaning expenses will be way up.
BRV is up now likely due to min wage increases. Plus It doesn't really make much sense for BRV and CCV to be that far off in MF's. The cabins likely account for more maintenance but BRV is also larger I'd guess so they're pretty similar.
CastAStone
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I mean, it looks like the difference, is, well, everything:
| BRV | CCV | Difference | % Difference | |
| Maintenance | $0.920 | $0.725 | $0.195 | 21% |
| Admin/Front Desk | $0.818 | $0.681 | $0.137 | 17% |
| Housekeeping | $1.210 | $1.106 | $0.104 | 9% |
| Management Fee | $0.591 | $0.504 | $0.087 | 15% |
| Utilities | $0.219 | $0.173 | $0.046 | 21% |
| Insurance | $0.113 | $0.072 | $0.041 | 36% |
| Security | $0.075 | $0.045 | $0.031 | 41% |
| Income Taxes | $0.066 | $0.036 | $0.030 | 45% |
| Member Activities | $0.276 | $0.265 | $0.011 | 4% |
| Annual Audit | $0.008 | $0.005 | $0.003 | 41% |
| Fees to the Division | $0.007 | $0.006 | $0.002 | 21% |
| Legal | $0.001 | $0.000 | $0.000 | 40% |
| DVC Reservation Component | $0.006 | $0.006 | $0.000 | -2% |
| Transportation | $0.806 | $0.815 | -$0.008 | -1% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $5.116 | $4.438 | $0.678 | 13% |
| Late Fees & Interest | -$0.030 | -$0.027 | -$0.003 | 10% |
| Breakage Income | -$0.162 | -$0.142 | -$0.021 | 13% |
| Parking Revenue | -$0.011 | -$0.008 | -$0.003 | 30% |
| Member Operating Assessment | $4.913 | $4.261 | $0.651 | 13% |
| Capital Reserves | $1.408 | $1.259 | $0.150 | 11% |
| Ad Valorem Taxes | $1.460 | $1.927 | -$0.467 | -32% |
| Total Dues Assessment | $7.781 | $7.447 | $0.334 | 4% |
Via DVCNews
ChipNdale8887
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Thanks for this!
ChipNdale8887
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Is there one of these for Riviera yet?
sethschroeder
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Do not forget that DVC Only vs Hotel side are very different.
For RIV the Front Desk ($1.02), Insurance ($0.07), Legal ($0.0008), Maintenance ($0.66), Security ($0.04), Transportation ($1.13), and Utilities ($0.35) are all impacted by being DVC only in some manner. That is 56% of the resort specific budget that is impacted in some manner by being a stand alone resort vs sharing those expenses with the hotel side.
Now you would not just split it in half though because as an example for Front Desk you would need more staff if you have more people checking in. Overnight though when you have to have 2-3 working regardless this is where the Hotel side splitting the cost works out as a benefit.
It is interesting. For the front desk you would assume it would be cheaper but what probably happens is likely an increase because of more 1 or 2 night stays causing a higher % of work by the front desk to fall to CCV vs BRV.
sethschroeder
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i<3riviera
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sethschroeder
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I am not sure how you correct for it but it seems you need a way to avoid the spikes when new resorts are added to the portfolio of DVC. You can see it in that YOY.
I wonder if you average the year before and after to almost bridge that year?
As an example a 9% increase in 2019 (because of RIV) will throw off the actual numbers but maybe you want that.
EDIT to add:
I would also say you should correct for total number of DVC points as well. As an example something like BWV vs SSR vs RIV should not be measure exactly the same because they are different % of the total DVC points available.
RhodyKP
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You rock
i<3riviera
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CastAStone
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Fascinating!VGF, BLT, and PVB having the highest negative deviation (essentially lowest relative dues) really confused me; thinking about it, I believe it's the point charts
it seems a reasonable assumption that each resort's costs are roughly proportional to the physical structure (120 room resort is ~20% more expensive to run than a 100 room resort); we also know each resort's points are linked to the physical structure (once set, can't change for the resort) but not in the same way between resorts, not all points are created equal (at least at their home resort) ...
sure, if you use your points from SSR at AKV and vice versa they have the same value for reserving a room of X points; but, in the calculation of operating costs and the division among members (and therefore the annual dues per point), each resort's points chart comes into play; a resort with high point charts (RVA, VGF) would pay more dues per deluxe studio stay even if their dues were the same as a resort with a low point chart (OKW) because dues are on a per point basis and RVA + VGF require more points per stay
one way to accommodate that is to make a few more assumptions ...
- each deluxe studio (or whatever common size you want to pick) has the same general costs to share (housekeeping, transport, taxes)
- re: taxes, some resorts may have higher / lower taxes per deluxe studio (they so fancy), but let's pretend it's close enough
- general amenities (like pools) are roughly proportional to # of accommodations at each resort so this should wash out as well
- each resort has a different number of points required to book a deluxe studio for 365 days
- some of the resorts have different views, let's normalize that (including in the # lock-off deluxe studios) ...
points for 365 days standard * # standard + points for 365 days preferred * # preferred) / (# standard + # preferred)
now we take that normalized # points to book 365 days in a deluxe studio
based on 2021 point chart applied to base year calendar starting on a Sun (minimizes Fri + Sat)
OKW BWV BRV BCV SSR AKV BLT VGF PVB CCV RVA average
what does this tell us? RVA, for example, requires 63% more points than OKW to book a deluxe studio, let's call this the point chart factor
from the point chart factor, we know the dues collected per deluxe studio are actually 63% higher than the gap in annual dues alone; annual dues normalized for RVA are 13.55 vs. OKW of 7.84 for 2020!this also applies to VGF, BLT, and PVB which all have higher points requirements for deluxe studios
so let's graph it!
View attachment 510620
wow! I get from this several things ...
#3 is my most interesting take-away as it tells me most resorts do in fact cost roughly the same to operate when you normalize out point charts
- OKW and SSR (when adjusting for point chart differences) have essentially the same annual dues per deluxe studio; this makes total sense as they are very similar resorts (aside from the tree houses of course)
- VGF, PVB, and RVA are trending downward telling me they will continue to have lower than average dues increases over the next several years
- BWV, BRV, BCV, AKV, BLT, and CCV are all tightly packed around the average even with CCV having cabins and AKV having animals
another way to confirm this would be to take the raw annual budgets for each resort and divide by a room factor to represent the number of roughly equally sized rooms at each resort, you would have to make some additional assumptions about what a deluxe studio vs. grand villa vs. cabin count as but I suspect the end result would be similar to this analysis; I'll leave that as an opportunity for someone else
here's hoping the prediction of below average increases for RVA dues hold true!
So then what makes OKW and SSR so much cheaper to operate per room? They have the most pools, the most green space, the most gardens, the most rooms going to breakage (far above the reimbursement cap), and in the case of OKW, the largest rooms - on the surface it seems like they should cost more, not less.
Do you think there’s a correlation between number of rooms and room-dues? Would that mean that Riviera should naturally get cheaper as fixed costs are spread across more points?
Or are the joint-hotel DVCs absorbing more than their fare share of operating costs?
sethschroeder
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I think there is a big issue assuming studio costs are the same across all the resorts. Yes the room may be but the costs that come along with the resort are not.
Again I will point to:
Also when you look at BWV/BCV/VFG/POLY/CCV they are all trending down in your graph. It also looks like the "steep" decreases actually are from the graph self correcting itself with a new resort coming in to the system that is more expensive.
In the end people will also need to consider the requirement of points for a night's stay at where they will be booking. A location like RIV might have more expensive dues but possibly cost less points vs someone with OKW points bouncing around and possibly having to grab more expensive views or even a 1br instead of a studio.
I think one of the biggest wildcards is possibly the reliability of the Skyliner and ability then to remove extra bus cost from Riviera.
Again I will point to:
Also when you look at BWV/BCV/VFG/POLY/CCV they are all trending down in your graph. It also looks like the "steep" decreases actually are from the graph self correcting itself with a new resort coming in to the system that is more expensive.
In the end people will also need to consider the requirement of points for a night's stay at where they will be booking. A location like RIV might have more expensive dues but possibly cost less points vs someone with OKW points bouncing around and possibly having to grab more expensive views or even a 1br instead of a studio.
I think one of the biggest wildcards is possibly the reliability of the Skyliner and ability then to remove extra bus cost from Riviera.
i<3riviera
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