A 30% room discount for Deluxe as an example is typically a better deal than FD for us. Moderate, it depends on the resort and discount %. Sometimes it saves and sometimes it doesn't. I know, not a clear answer. Welcome to the Disney discounts.
You also may end up toggling between a room only reservation and a package. Maybe not if you have already decided to do the dining plan.
Truly, as others have said, free dining isn't necessarily the best deal. The dining plan locks you into a somewhat rigid eating pattern. It isn't a savings plan, it is really just a pre-paid meal plan. Once upon a time, it WAS a good discount, but not so much any more. I
t depends where/how you want to eat, but generally paying for the DDP = a break even plan AT BEST.
Let me explain it this way, the last time we used DDP, it cost more than if we had not used it.
Current DDP costs $63.70 per adult per day and $22.85 for kids 3-9. Regular DDP is one TS meal (w/soft drink, dessert, entrée, and tax - but NOT gratuity) one QS meal (entrée, dessert, drink) , and one snack per person per night booked at a WDW hotel.
If you redeem your adult TS credit at 1900 Park Fare for dinner, your TS credit = $42.50-$47.70.
If you redeem same TS credit at The Plaza, it only = $23 (turkey sandch, fries, ice cream, coffee, tax)
Snack credits are worth: $1.80 (whole fruit at Starbucks) $2.65(veggie or corn at CHH), or $3.20 (drink or cookie), or $6.90 (funnel cake at SH).
Adult QS credits are worth about: $11.66 (burger), $4.24 ice cream, $3.40 drink.(Beaches poolside at BC) = $19.30
Further, DDP doesn't differentiate if you don't get all the entitlements. If you drink water and skip dessert, but use a DDP TS to pay for your Plaza meal, then the value is only $13. Buffets are fixed price, no matter how little you eat, but at a la carte places, cutting one dessert per table kinda blows the value of the DDP.
Meanwhile- you still have to factor the TIP. On the DIS we aren't supposed to discuss/debate tipping percentages, so let's not. Suffice it to say though, tips are a factor. DDP kind of encourages guests to order more expensive entrees, and ALL their entitlements. With DDP, we order dessert, usually multiple desserts. Non-DDP, we pay the bill -so we can be done, and back to the attractions!
With DDP you are locked into some crummy desserts, many QS desserts are items we don't really like, and wouldn't normally eat. It isn't accurate to value them at the price WDW charges, yet that is often where the difference lies. Same thing with soda. We don't normally drink soda every day.
Oh - DDP is generally a loss if you eat vegetarian meals!
You lose any DDP credits you don't use. If you drink water over soda, then you still kind of have to use the credit. You have flexibility in hw you sue credits, but options like signature meals, aren't really in your favor. Use two DDP credits at Citricos ( entrée: $32 to 49, dessert: about $12, drinks: not sure, but about $5) and the value is as low as $32 if you pick just the low priced entrée.
If you do, than your TS credits are worth a mere $16!
Honestly, if we dine at signature places without the DDP, we typically do something like : two appetizers, one entrée, one dessert, and no soft drinks. DDP doesn't include wine!
So....I think it is fair to say - if you order all the entitlements, but pick low $ options, a day of credits is worth about $44.
If you top out the DDP (buffet, funnelcake, QS burger), you still only get to a DDP per day value of about $69. And that's eating maxing the snack credits every day. In practice, nobody does that. Most DDP users end up eating a breakfast TS (even a buffet = only about $30), and $3-4 snacks.
Just dropping to a $3 snack(instead of maxing everything), means no savings, just the headache of a rigid prepaid plan. for the average family, there is no benefit.