New Park???

[lockedoutlogic]

There is the one over laying fact that makes a 5 th park a reqiurement. You need to bring in more people to fill all those resort room there have built and are building.

Disney plans at all there areas, DL, WDW Paris and now the far east, is to bring people on property and keep them there to speand as much money as possible.

Mini parks and shops is not going to do that. People will head off site or stay off site and that goes agianist all Disney business plans. and that is not good!

Yes, the AK and HS need additional attractions, and they are adding those with plans already discussed. However the 4 parks will only hold so many people and with MK and Epcot pretty well crowded year around now and HS and ak not that far behind, the 5 th parks will be needed.

They can only raise the gate tickets so far before people will not pay it, with a 5th park they can still rake the money in but at the level families can pay.

The other reason is simple..........Disney needs to be at the top of the entertianment/park industry.they need to keep adding on a over the top scale..only a new park will do that.

No I still firmly beleive, a 5th park is reqiured to keep Disney on top......is it cheap.not as you pointed out......no its big money, but mony that will well pay for itself in time.

AKK

But all evidence to the contrary...

the reality is that disney hotels ARE being filled (the last 4 years probably represents their worst annual occupancy...but yet i still would think its above 90% on the whole - almost every room, every night) and the parks are nowhere near capacity.

I have to say I'm loving it in WDW parks the last 2 years or so because they have been so empty. We were there in late august and had almost no crowds anyday....march before that and it was light-moderate...and those months - while not the absolute peak - are definitely not the ghost periods...

So why would you build a 5 when you are rarely - if ever filling the first 4.

The fact is that - at most - the parks are filled 5 days a year - 7/4, 12/24-25, and 12/31-1/1. And in recent years they've barely scraped that.

So why build capacity when they don't even meet what they have? It would be nice if they wanted to have a 10 minute wait on everything all year...but they're not that charitable.

 

[chartle]

1. I don't see many thrill parks as successful anywhere these days. Look at 6 flags,they closed like 8 parks in the last 2 years.........look at cedar point, they are one of the only thrill parks that has made good profits in the last few years.

Even Universal, they spend a fortune on Islands of Adventure and, what...........1 billion + ??? on Harry Potter(which they did very well I would add), but they never reached the attendance increase they predicted(no I don't remember the figures).

Thrill parks only attract young couples and families with older kids.....its to small a geographics. You need to attract sizable numbers from all geographics...........young....old...singles..kids........ older folks....everyone.......


2. The week planner I read was interesting, but what makes yearly vacation less important is for many years families came to disney once every few years.........now they often come every year, even more then 2 times a year.......they know they will be returning agian and again because there will be more to see and do......EI the 5th park. So the one week vacation isnt that important becuase you are looking at more then 1 year.

AKK

1. Probably all good reasons why that park may not have worked if it got off the ground.

2. Cheshire Figment has posted that 70% of all WDW guests are first time visitors. Since they have limited vacation time, adding a 5th park would just spread those first time visitors over more area which costs a lot of money. Money that doesn't have to be spent.

Once that number gets to some lower number, maybe then you can talk about giving the customer a reason to come back to WDW.

Disney is going to first go after the low hanging fruit, that fruit is not even in the US let alone Orlando.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

This, but I like to add a 5th gate will be built when Disney can either add a day to the week by adjusting the space time continuum and make it 8 days or get people to take longer vacations. The former will probably be easier.

I have at one time put up a chart showing how many vacation days people get by law in various developed countries. Guess where the US falls on this chart.

But anyway since this may have been lost. There was going to be a "thrill park" built in Orlando so it wasn't a rumor. Its just that it was not Disney building it. They couldn't get a zoning variance for the noise so its now dead. See my other post about 3 pages ago.

there's this too...but i was randomly selecting my evidence.

The reality is that people (cough greedy americans cough) don't get enough time off and probably will never get anymore to support 10 day or more disney world trips...

so in that respect 4 parks is already too much

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

1. Probably all good reasons why that park may not have worked if it got off the ground.

2. Cheshire Figment has posted that 70% of all WDW guests are first time visitors. Since they have limited vacation time, adding a 5th park would just spread those first time visitors over more area which costs a lot of money. Money that doesn't have to be spent.

Once that number gets to some lower number, maybe then you can talk about giving the customer a reason to come back to WDW.

Disney is going to first go after the low hanging fruit, that fruit is not even in the US let alone Orlando.

I will agree they are looking at more forgien guests, but that has a draw back in the air travel is not going to do anything but go up in costs,but in the end, the bread and butter is still here in the states.

I can actually see a South american park/resort in time!

But your points are well taken!

AKK

 

[Reddog1134]

I think someone has not heard of "burden of proof" AKA "appeal of ignorance".

John: "I hold 'Statement A' to be true"
Mike: "Show me proof"
John: " It is true because you cannot show me that it not"

Sorry, doesn't work that way.

 

[mcd2745]

The fact is that - at most - the parks are filled 5 days a year - 7/4, 12/24-25, and 12/31-1/1. And in recent years they've barely scraped that.

So why build capacity when they don't even meet what they have? It would be nice if they wanted to have a 10 minute wait on everything all year...but they're not that charitable.

I'm sure Disney would love to have those attendance levels 365 days a year.

However, I've never been there on any of those days and I absolutely would not want to be there at those attendance levels. I can't imagine it's a very enjoyable experience with those crowds - even if as part of next-gen they somehow made it possible that you barely waited for any attractions. Just that many people in the walkways and such, trying to navigate them all as I make my way to the next attraction, or having 20 people in front of me in line for a Dole Whip (although maybe at some point I'll have to even reserve my Dole Whip time 180 days in advance), or trying to get a spot for a parade, etc. would probably make for a very diminished experience IMO.

I know they are nowhere near that point now, but if they keep adding hotel/resort capacity, and they keep achieving very high occupancy rates year-reound...those resort guests are going to be going somewhere during the day. That may be accomplishing their goal of filling the parks to near-capacity, but will no doubt be turning some guests off with a less enjoyable experience. However, it's probably a trade-off they would glady make.

 

[Reddog1134]

I'm sure Disney would love to have those attendance levels 365 days a year.

However, I've never been there on any of those days and I absolutely would not want to be there at those attendance levels. I can't imagine it's a very enjoyable experience with those crowds - even if as part of next-gen they somehow made it possible that you barely waited for any attractions. Just that many people in the walkways and such, trying to navigate them all as I make my way to the next attraction, or having 20 people in front of me in line for a Dole Whip (although maybe at some point I'll have to even reserve my Dole Whip time 180 days in advance), or trying to get a spot for a parade, etc. would probably make for a very diminished experience IMO.

I know they are nowhere near that point now, but if they keep adding hotel/resort capacity, and they keep achieving very high occupancy rates...these people are going to be going somewhere during the day. They may be accomplishing their goal of filling the parks to near-capacity, but will no doubt be turning some guests off with a less enjoyable experience. However, it's probably a trade-off they would glady make.

More Disney hotel rooms doesn't necessarily mean more people in the parks, though (except maybe EMH). It just means less people staying at the Days Inn.

 

[Kathi OD]

Maybe this is the report that Tonka read:
http://**************.net/2011/11/1...om-and-walt-disney-worlds-5th-park-continued/

JIM HILL PREDICTS A FIFTH GATE BY 2021

As noted a week or so ago, Jim Hill speculated recently at the end of this article that Disney World will open a whole new fifth park sometime near its 50th anniversary in 2021.

Jim Hill is usually reliable on what people at Disney are actually talking about and working on.

That does not mean, however, that what he reports must come true.

Like any other creative business, Disney generates many more ideas than it can possibly act on (and discusses these ideas&and thus engenders rumors).

So a fifth park by 2021 is a real possibility, but not even close to a certainty. And as explained here, the earliest official confirmation would come, in my judgment, is mid-2015.

Given that, theres three things worth addressing whenever the fifth gate question comes up:

Is there space?
Arent there better things to do with the capital?
Wont the new park have horrible economics from cannibalization?

IS THERE SPACE FOR A FIFTH PARK AT WALT DISNEY WORLD?

Theres an enormous amount of empty space at Walt Disney World.

However, most of it is geologically unusable, reserved for conservation/storm water management, swampland, or all three.

That said, Disneys land use planning arm, the Reedy Creek Improvement District (RCID), has published maps showing areas appropriate for future development.

Theres at least four areas big enough for a new theme park.

On the RCID map, the most developable spaces are in red, and then yellow green. Least developable are the dark green spaces.

Four areas strike me as having enough good land to contain a new park: one to the west of the Magic Kingdom, one between the TTC parking lot and Fort Wilderness, one to the northwest of the Animal Kingdom, and one to the east of Wide World of Sports.

Any of these but maybe the last is big enough for a massive new park and associated developmenthotels and such.

But consider that technology may greatly reduce ride footprints, waiting areas, guest support and circulation spaces, and backstage areas.

Consider the footprints of rides like Toy Story Mania and Star Tours, compared to, to take the extreme, the land that the Jungle Cruise and Kilimanjaro Safaris take up. Deployment of screen-based rides for the fifth gate can reduce the amount of land it requires.

Then consider Disneys NextGen technology, which has many components but key among them is the opportunity to reserve a time to visit a ride. A park designed with this approach in mind from the start can greatly reduce the areas devoted to waiting lines.

And consider a possible evolution of NextGen: from scheduling just rides and meals and such to defining a beginning and ending time to be in a park itself. If the fifth gate opens as a half-day park, then some families can schedule all of their experiences in it to go from 9a til 1p, others 10a to 2p, others from 4p til 9p, etc.

If this is possible, the new park can be fully utilized all day with smaller infrastructurefewer ticket booths, less wide walkways, fewer restrooms, etc, as the peak hourly crowds it needs to be designed for will be smaller than would those at a park where people arrive randomly.

And smaller ride footprints, smaller waiting areas and smaller support infrastructure will tend to lead to smaller backstage areas.

So the fifth gate may need much less space than at first seems to be the case.

ETA: not the full text.

 

[MJMcBride]

But that report is just a rumor.

And 1 from Jim hill who is wrong 90 percent of the time

 

[Kathi OD]

Here's another, but I'll not post the full text.

http://micechat.com/7930-disney-world-parks-monorails/

If you read both carefully, both say even though plans exist, that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to happen.

 

[Kathi OD]

But that report is just a rumor.

And 1 from Jim hill who is wrong 90 percent of the time

I understand it's a rumor, but there are those who believe anything they read.

LOL...proof - the article says he's usually right!

 

[Reddog1134]

LOL...proof - the article says he's usually right!

It says he's "usually reliable on what Disney people are talking about". Jim tends to write about every rumor that he comes across, which while having the possibility of coming true, usually doesn't.

 

[MJMcBride]

The point is Jim hill is far from official report

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

More Disney hotel rooms doesn't necessarily mean more people in the parks, though (except maybe EMH). It just means less people staying at the Days Inn.

I agree.

Earlier this year, I drove along Highway 192 (Irlo Bronson Highway) in Kissimmee, for many miles east and west of where Walt Disney World cuts across the highway.

Disney's Value Resorts have taken a serious toll on what had been a somewhat chaotic, but thriving, strip of chain motor hotel properties. There are still some hotels that are affiliated with major, well-known chains and appear to be well-maintained. But many of properties look run-down and have lost their chain affiliations. Many of the worst-looking ones are undoubtedly now serving as cheap apartments. And there are places where shuttered hotels are surrounded by chain link fences, or where large vacant lots have replaced hotels. It tends to get worse as you head further east of WDW, but the section west of WDW has also seen better days.

Disney's new Art of Animation Resort is another nail in the coffin of Highway 192 -- not a prognosticator of an exciting, new 5th theme park at WDW,

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

Maybe this is the report that Tonka read:
http://**************.net/2011/11/1...om-and-walt-disney-worlds-5th-park-continued/



ETA: not the full text.

Hello Kathi, Not I didnt see that one, but it is interesting.

Thanks for posting it but nothing will please the pack, Thats why they are not imortant.

What I have seen have been 10 or 15 years of 4 and 5th park discussions.......reports.........round tables.......rumors.....tv segments.etc.etc...

I also had discussions, a freindship, with, David Gagenback who was big in the originail design of WDW(he even has his name on a window on Main st). I also did a bit of research back in college in transportation management, both marine and people which started me on the parks and the future.


Thanks for your courtasy........AKK

 

[MJMcBride]

And yet still nothing more than rumors abd speculation

We have all heard the rumors about a sports theme park, villians park, night kingdom, etc etc

just because a website or blogger said they heard something is not the same as saying there is some report from Disney

I could say a source told me Disney is considering changing the shape of the Comtemporary resort from a giant A to a giant B. Is that now official?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I'm sure Disney would love to have those attendance levels 365 days a year.

However, I've never been there on any of those days and I absolutely would not want to be there at those attendance levels. I can't imagine it's a very enjoyable experience with those crowds - even if as part of next-gen they somehow made it possible that you barely waited for any attractions. Just that many people in the walkways and such, trying to navigate them all as I make my way to the next attraction, or having 20 people in front of me in line for a Dole Whip (although maybe at some point I'll have to even reserve my Dole Whip time 180 days in advance), or trying to get a spot for a parade, etc. would probably make for a very diminished experience IMO.

I know they are nowhere near that point now, but if they keep adding hotel/resort capacity, and they keep achieving very high occupancy rates year-reound...those resort guests are going to be going somewhere during the day. That may be accomplishing their goal of filling the parks to near-capacity, but will no doubt be turning some guests off with a less enjoyable experience. However, it's probably a trade-off they would glady make.

No offense...but i think you've identified my point.

20 people waiting for dole whip or people 4 deep waiting for a (most likely bad) parade proves nothing.

The majority of days the park crowds fall somewhere between light/moderate to moderate/heavy.

That means they have plenty of capacity. And if they don't have it at one park (usually MK or Studios)...then they do have it at one of the others...

And as far as attrition from "less than satisfied customers" due to crowds (which are rarely as bad as they are made out to be)...well that's not much of a threat.

Disney has enough allure to attract the first timers for quite awhile (mainly because they are offspring of the former first timers)...and they have their core audience that eat it like animals (most who are on this board right now)...

for those that are "turned off" by disney and don't return...adding another park isn't going to scratch the hull on that ship...
Or they can't afford it again...and again...no solution on the horizon for that one.

The whole "they need another park or they'll be sorry" is perhaps the ultimate disney world red herring (maybe just behind "watch out - universal means business")

that is not the case - my opinion but supported by every single number.

And jim hill --- jeez

so the argument is:
A. they'll have a 50 year anniversary that jim hill is "fairly confident" will fall in the calendar year 2021...good start there
B. They have the space...the crack research team confirmed what walt disney said in a seedy hotel lobby while chain smoking in 1964...score one for investigative journalism
C. The park could be smaller with more computers...on the day of the release of an apple device that's 3/8 of an inch thick and has a better resolution screen on an 8 inch screen than a 50 inch tv 5 years ago...is a pure revelation of genius. How'd they dream that one up?

can't wait for the next prophecy from Jim

 

[mcd2745]

No offense...but i think you've identified my point.

20 people waiting for dole whip or people 4 deep waiting for a (most likely bad) parade proves nothing.

The majority of days the park crowds fall somewhere between light/moderate to moderate/heavy.

That means they have plenty of capacity. And if they don't have it at one park (usually MK or Studios)...then they do have it at one of the others...

And as far as attrition from "less than satisfied customers" due to crowds (which are rarely as bad as they are made out to be)...well that's not much of a threat.

Disney has enough allure to attract the first timers for quite awhile (mainly because they are offspring of the former first timers)...and they have their core audience that eat it like animals (most who are on this board right now)...

for those that are "turned off" by disney and don't return...adding another park isn't going to scratch the hull on that ship...
Or they can't afford it again...and again...no solution on the horizon for that one.

The whole "they need another park or they'll be sorry" is perhaps the ultimate disney world red herring (maybe just behind "watch out - universal means business")

that is not the case - my opinion but supported by every single number.

And jim hill --- jeez

so the argument is:
A. they'll have a 50 year anniversary that jim hill is "fairly confident" will fall in the calendar year 2021...good start there
B. They have the space...the crack research team confirmed what walt disney said in a seedy hotel lobby while chain smoking in 1964...score one for investigative journalism
C. The park could be smaller with more computers...on the day of the release of an apple device that's 3/8 of an inch thick and has a better resolution screen on an 8 inch screen than a 50 inch tv 5 years ago...is a pure revelation of genius. How'd they dream that one up?

can't wait for the next prophecy from Jim

No offense taken as I wasn't making an argument for a 5th gate. As a fan/guest...would I love one? Of course. However, I know one isn't coming for a very long time, if not ever.

Just basically stating that I hope they never achieve what they would love to do - fill the park to near-capacity with t-shirt buyers. And if they did, I (and many others) would probably be part of the "attrition" should they ever accomplish it. Although, I also did acknowledge in my last sentence that they wouldn't mind that at all.

I will, however, disagree with this statement:

or those that are "turned off" by disney and don't return...adding another park isn't going to scratch the hull on that ship...

If what turns you off is unbearable crowds with no more "slow" seasons to avoid them (though I agree it's nowhere near that point...yet), building a 5th park does alleviate that because you are redistributing those crowds to likely "acceptable" levels. If it is something else that turns you off...then yes, a 5th park does nothing for you.

 

[Kathi OD]

It says he's "usually reliable on what Disney people are talking about". Jim tends to write about every rumor that he comes across, which while having the possibility of coming true, usually doesn't.

The point is Jim hill is far from official report

Just to make it clear, I was not proposing that anything in either of the links I posted was proof that Disney was planning a 5th park.

My only purpose was to point out that there have been some people speculating the same, and that some readers of these articles might take it to be gospel.

 

[MJMcBride]

Just to make it clear, I was not proposing that anything in either of the links I posted was proof that Disney was planning a 5th park.

My only purpose was to point out that there have been some people speculating the same, and that some readers of these articles might take it to be gospel.

Thats fair enough, but I think everyone agrees there has been speculation on same