They do make the rockin' world go 'round...
1997? Let's get a little more up to date, 2001 attendance figures, here are the figures and the change from 2000:
I used 1997 because Mr. Eyesnur stated he thought 5 years was indicitive of a trend, and that a one year comparison was largely meaningless. If you have a disagreement, it is with him, not me.
Now, you are right that the drop from 2000 to 2001 was almost equal. Now, on to 2002.
Hmm... AK still outperformed by almost 1.5 million. Interesting....
It outperformed USF by 400k, and IoA by 1.2 million. But what is actually interesting is that for 2000 to 2001, you highlighted the percentage change, but for 2002, you ignored the percentage change and only posted the raw difference.
Why? (Its ok, we all know, but I'm just giving you the chance to say it...
)
Mission:Space is a replacement for Horizons.
Just repeating this from HB2K because it seems this fact was lost on some folks for much of this conversation.
Thank you, Matt, for the most significant point in this entire discussion. How can anyone believe that Universal has caught up when even those who find most fault with Disney can't be lured to the Universal offerings?
Well, 2 points on this one:
1- While it may sound like I have an overblown sense of self-importance, I realize that I am only one person, and my family is only one family. Further, the fault I find is with Disney's DIRECTION, and not so much as where they are right now.
2- I know you were distracted by the fairy business, but its important to remember by original post, where I said Universal has NOT caught up to WDW in all areas. I wasn't willing to breakdown the age groups and make predictions though. I did say they have GAINED in families, but that the gap was huge to begin with, meaning they have not caught-up.
Clearly Universal has not caught-up in all market segments, or they would be drawing at least as many people as WDW on a per park basis. Again, my concern is over trends and direction. I realize the AB numbers do no provide absolute proof that WDW is experiencing negative growth due to their own decisions, however, they do at least hint that WDW may have a problem besides those caused by outside factors.
Since attendance is a "lag" indicator, waiting for WDW's attendance to actually fall below Universals will mean waiting until it maybe too late to do anything about it.
You are are shaky ground here. First off, you yourself point out that USF or IOA don't provide enough compelling attractions to even make them half day parks for many. To you, and to many more, they are no day parks.
Hopefully this is more clear now, but just in case... My family, as well as those we travel with, are pretty much in what one would consider the "family market". As I've said, Universal has most certainly not caught Disney in this area. Further, we are "Disney people", who have that long history with Disney's films and parks. If Disney ever loses us, and those like us in significant enough numbers, they are through.
But for those more in-line with Universal's target, locals, teens, etc, USF and IoA are very good parks. Whereas Disney's target for AK, families, find it to be less than stellar (talking big picture, not what you or I think). That's why I said for their audiences, Universal's parks are not 1/2 day, while for its audience, AK is largely considered a 1/2 day park (not saying that is a technically correct description, only what it has been labeled...though I do think on pure attraction counts, IoA has more...not completely sure though)
The number of people that go to Disney and not to Universal while in Orlando is probably huge. The number that go to Universal and not to Disney............how small do yo think that one is? That says an awful lot.
Yes, it says that Disney still has far more market share than Universal. But again, direction and trends is what we should be concerned with. Not saying that we have absolute proof that those are negative for Disney, but just that they should at least be raising some doubt.
I think you overstate when you say 'much' of Disney's audience when it comes to AK. What do you have to base that on? A relatively small group on an internet bulletin board?
We've been through this before, but AK's attendance started out lower than the other three parks and has fallen each year, with its decline surpassed only by Epcot. It closes no later than 7pm, and frequently 5pm, without squaking from guests. It no longer even opens earlier than 9am. Before the return of a parade, the place emptied out by mid-afternoon.
Again, the reasons are a separate discussion that we have already had, but I can't see how I am over-stating its failure to strike the chord with the Disney's guests that was intended.
DH hates coasters like Hulk and Dueling Dragons so the only thing we would really go to IOA to see would be Spiderman and I don't think I want to pay $50 each to see one ride. We are both 32-no kids. Our friend (24) went to IOA and hated it. He said the rides/themeing/ques were ok but nowhere near the quality of TOT, Splash, HM, etc.. He told us don't bother going. We will probably go and judge for ourselves at some point. 
