FP+ Capacity per Park Summary of Work so far 2/9/2013

Discussion in 'Disney Rumors and News' started by bcrook, Jan 26, 2013.

  1. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    Thanks Skier Pete, that gives me a little more to go on.

    I just realized I did not do Buzz lightyear, and after searching for a while, I have yet to come up with any number at all. I expect this is a high capacity easy loading ride, but no numbers. Still searching.

    However, I came across an interesting site that I have never visited before, and it gave a breakdown of Choice #1 and Choice #2 for the MK for the Dec 15th FP+ test. I am not sure if I can list the site on here, but I will cut and paste that little section of the podcast site.

    Group 1
    •Big Thunder Mountain Railroad
    •Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin
    •Disney Princesses at Town Square Theater
    •Enchanted Tales with Belle
    •Main Street Electrical Parade
    •Mickey Mouse at Town Square Theater
    •Peter Pan’s Flight
    •Space Mountain
    •Splash Mountain
    •Wishes Nighttime Spectacular

    Group 2 (Choose 2):
    •Celebrate a Dream Come True Parade
    •Dumbo the Flying Elephant
    •Haunted Mansion
    •Jungle Cruise
    •Mickey’s PhilharMagic
    •Monster’s Inc Laugh Floor
    •The Barnstormer
    •The Magic Carpets of Aladdin
    •The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh
    •Under the Sea: Journey of the Little Mermaid

    All three mountains are listed under one catagory (darn). And, as they noted and I agree - its weird that POtc is not in there, or small world. However, these lists and breakdowns look a lot more comprehensive then the summer test breakdown. Notice that is says, choose 2 from group 2? hmmm

    I keep getting sucked into these different disneyfan or info sites, and waste a lot of time. Its been an education though, I will say that.
    I am going to revise my previous post to include this new info, and add every OHRC that I can find (I only try and use cm chatter for this, but obviously this wont work for them all). And the parades and fireworks are a big unknown too. I will try and fill in as many blanks as possible though. It may take a couple of days.

    With just basic calculations that I have so far though, I dont think the 3fp+ rule is going to have any issue at the MK, even at maximum capacity, as there are so many attractions and events, and the hours are so long. It will be another story at Epcot and AK though. Epcot for its limited 'attractions', and AK for short hours, and only 1 parade, and few attractions.

    Edited to add: Well, crap, it looks like these calculations have already been done, and by someone who can do math. Here is a cut and paste of a certain section of wdw fan boys podcast website (hope listing the words is ok with the mods, but with this info, you really have to give them credit. After briefly reading it, I am not sure if its them, or JIm hill that came out with these calculations (I always thought Jim was a bit of a wingnut, but maybe I am wrong!) Here is the cut and paste of the pertinent info

    he amount of Fastpasses distributed per every 5 minute interval is not public information, but this number is estimated at 5% of an attraction’s hourly capacity. This means that starting 40 minutes after park opening, 60% of an attraction’s hourly capacity is distributed as Fastpasses.
    •Depending on the park, attendance, and the results of the test in May it is speculated that each guest will receive access to 2-4 Fastpass+ attractions per day
    •Attendance at the Magic Kingdom in 2010 was 16,972,000 or an average of 46,499 guests per day
    •The estimated hourly capacity of the 8 current Fastpass attractions (Jungle Cruise, Splash Mountain, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, Peter Pan’s Flight, The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh, Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin, Space Mountain, Town Square Theater) at the Magic Kingdom is 9550 per hour
    •An average attendance day at the Magic Kingdom will see 13 hours of operation: 9:00 AM – 10:00 PM
    •A 13 hour day will have 148 Fastpass Intervals of 5 minutes each (13 hours x 12 five minute intervals per hour less 8 intervals at the start of the day)
    •With every attraction operating, the estimated maximum Fastpass distribution during a 13 hour day at the Magic Kingdom is 70,670.
    •This means that up to 56.92% of total rides on the 8 Current Fastpass attractions can be done through the Fastpass system. Assuming that the 5% number is correct, this percentage is accurate regardless of whether or not the attraction capacity numbers are correct. If the number changes to 4% then the percentage changes to 45.54%, and at 6% the percentage changes to 68.31%
    •The addition of the other attractions and premium entertainment viewing can potentially bring the daily Fastpass+ availability to 237,450 per day. This would include all of the Fantasyland expansion being open as well as premium viewing for a daytime parade, a nighttime parade and a fireworks show.
    •With 46,499 guests in the park, and each guest entitled to 4 Fastpass+ attractions, 185,995 of the 237,450 available Fastpasses can be distributed via Fastpass+.
    •This would mean that 78.3% of Fastpasses could potentially be booked prior to guests entering the park. If each guest can book 3 Fastpass+ attractions the percentage drops to 58.73% and if each guest can reserve 2 attractions the percentage drops to 39.15%.
    •The corresponding numbers are significantly less favorable at the Animal Kingdom but that is subject to change with the addition of World of Avatar. The numbers are comparable at Epcot, and slightly more favorable at Hollywood Studios


    Barry, this looks like some pretty solid figuring, even taking into account the 5 minute staggering and the 40 minute delay (which I totally forgot about).
     
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  3. StillWorldlyWise

    StillWorldlyWise Earning My Ears

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    Will have to check my stash, but I am pretty sure I remember pulling FPs for extended family group and watching the return time jump by 5 min increment more than once.
     
  4. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    OHRC's for the following attractions, if known, or explained how I made them up.

    Group 1
    •Big Thunder Mountain Railroad 2200? (guestimate based off of splash and space)
    •Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin 2000? (guess based on the fact that I think its far less then POTC and HM, but more then jungle cruise)
    •Disney Princesses at Town Square Theater 720
    •Enchanted Tales with Belle ?
    •Main Street Electrical Parade?
    •Mickey Mouse at Town Square Theater 500 if 2 mice are working?
    •Peter Pan’s Flight 800
    •Space Mountain 2500
    •Splash Mountain 1800
    •Wishes Nighttime Spectacular ?

    Lets just add up the known (a term I use loosely) numbers. 2200+2000+720+500+800+2500+1800= 10520
    Lets use 13 hrs as the average so
    16.6% is 22702
    33% is 45582
    50% is 68380
    60% is 82056

    I know some of the OHRC's I made up could be way off , but these numbers do not include the biggie of Wishes or the daytime parade. Logically speaking, the above numbers could be significantly higher.

    I am not even going to bother with group 2. I think its apparent that MK will have no issue with coming up with the minimum 3 fp+ for every park goer, even at peak season. You can argue that not everyone will use the FP+ system, and I will agree with that, however, I think Disney needs to be able to produce that number if only on paper, in case the system needs to be able to do that. Just sayin.

    What is of more interest perhaps, is how will AK be able to do this, with a 9-5 hr day? I think I will try and get some info on them, or epcot (I think Ive got the big three OHRCs from cm chatter on another board saved somewhere).

    I have some time to play, we are snowed in and housebound. Its unbelievable!
     
  5. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    I haven't had a chance to read all this yet! But somebody on site right now told me that 8 vehicles are loaded each minute on Peter Pans flight. That fits in well with your model.

    Looking forward to catching up soon....
     
  6. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    Those are some fascinating compilations. Throw in the Seven Dwarves Mine Train and the surplus number grows by another 10,000 or more per day. It wouldn't be a stretch to say that they have almost 2x as many tier 1 FP than they need.

    Does that mean that they can use them for incentives for deluxe resorts? I think each park has a surplus on the tier one rides because less people attend the other three parks. The Total Surplus of FP+ for all the parks combined could give Disney some powerful tools to play with.

    If we did the Second Tier Rides we would find yet another surplus. But first - Epcot and Animal Kingdom predictions...
     
  7. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    Tier 1: Hourly rate (daily based on 10 hour day)
    Daily attendance 27,000 average

    Expedition Everest 1800 (18000)
    Kali River Rapids 1800 (18000)
    Kilimanjaro Safari 2700 (27000)

    Total Tier 1 @ 60% = 37,800 need 27000

    Tier 2
    Dinosaur 2400 (24000)
    Primeval Whirl 1000 (10000)
    Triceratop Spin 550 (5500)
    Tough to Be a Bug 2000 (20000)
    Nemo 1500 x 4 = (6000)
    Lion King Show 6x1375 = (8250)
    Parade (1000)
    Meet and Greets (2000)

    Total FP+ available tier 2 @ 60% = 46,050 needed 54,000 short 8,000. Hmmm. I guess they can't get many people to use their FP+ on Quick Service!!!

    Overall, it looks like Disney Animal Kingdom is about neutral. It looks like this park needs a new land! Or, they will have to limit this park to 2 FP+ a day. That would get them a surplus. Those shorter hours do put a crunch on this park. Although EMH a few times a week would boost that total.
     
  8. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    Tier 1: hourly rate (daily rate) 10 hours a day.
    Average daily attendance 27000

    Soarin 1600
    Test Track 1200
    Mission Space 1600
    Spaceship Earth 2400

    Total FP+ @ 60% = 40,800 FP+ - 27,000 needed = 13,800 surplus

    Tier 2:
    Seas with Nemo 2200
    Figment 2240
    Living with the Land 2700
    Maelstrom 1900
    American Adventure (10000)
    Turtle Talk (500)
    Illuminations (1000)
    Meet and Greets (2000)
    Quick Service

    Total FP+ @ 60% = 62,340 - 54,000 = 8,340 surplus (not counting Gran Fiesta, Captain EO, Sum of All Thrills, or Energy Ride) That could bump up the total significantly.
     
  9. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    I would think a substantial number of FP+ reservations will simply be skipped. That number would pad the surplus numbers also.

    DAK could have a shortage of 8000 FP+ for tier 2 attractions but easily cover that deficit in no shows.
     
  10. mikegood2

    mikegood2 DIS Veteran

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    Do you think they will be skipped more in AK than the other parks? Do you think FP or FP+ will have people skip the times more? I've just always assumed, I know what that can make me ;), people would be more likely to use their FP+'s than the traditional FP.

    Sent from my iPad mini using DISBoards
     
  11. monorailrabbit

    monorailrabbit Rabbits Rabbits Everywhere!

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    Hi Barry - thanks for all your posts - REALLY helpful!!:thumbsup2 I was pretty much hooked on the first 2 FP+ threads. Please excuse me if I missed this, but are what you are listing as "Tier 1 & Tier 2" rides for sure now? Or are we still speculating? Thanks!
     
  12. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    Total speculation.

    There hasn't even been a trial run in Epcot or animal kingdom...so nothing to go on. We don't know if it will even be tiered yet, but the numbers are pretty clear... There are plenty of fastpasses if they limit the headliners to one, if they try two....there won't be enough. So, that does say something.
     
  13. monorailrabbit

    monorailrabbit Rabbits Rabbits Everywhere!

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    Thanks! I have been out of the loop for a few weeks and thought I missed that big piece of the pie somewhere! ;)

    [​IMG]
     
  14. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    People seem to abandon Animal Kingdom earlier than all the other parks. It totally makes sense that part of the plan is to get more people in that park and keep them there. I think your right, people would be less likely to bail on a FP+ because they are limited.

    There really are two questions in regards to skipped fastpasses...

    The first one, I don't have any clue how to even analyze - How will it affect standby lines? If a lot of people skip fastpass + does that speed up the standby lines because less people are "jumping in" or does it slow them down, because there aren't enough fastpasses available to skip lines so everybody resigns themselves to long standby lines. I just don't know.

    But the second question intrigues me. Disney is probably hoping people won't use their FP+ so they can overbook book them. If only 75% of eligible FP+ are used then 25% can be booked twice.

    For example at DAK, if 85,000 are available to disperse - but they can count on 25% not showing up - they can disperse an additional 20,000 passes. That more than makes up the deficit. If that no show rate is only 10% it is still huge.
     
  15. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    By the way Hopemax - THANK YOU for all your valuable information!

    IF the top rides are booked up in one park would that force people to a park with ride capacity still left. That seems to be a big part of this.

    It is obvious that Animal Kingdom needs a couple more quality rides to take up more slack. Magic Kingdom will be in good shape after the Mine Train comes on board, but the other parks need a little help. The brass has clearly said this 1.5 billion dollar investment is to maximize on current infrastructure. Even being extremely optimistic, there won't be a major addition to any of the "other" three parks until 2016 more than likely later than that.
     
  16. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    I tried to summarize the numbers in the first post. Pick them apart, they can be updated.

    I have no idea on capacity of prime seating for parades, fireworks, and meet and greets. No idea on Belle's Tales or Jedi Training. No idea on Quick Service. If 125,000 people are in the park a day, how many will burn a FP+ on a Counter Service "order ahead"? I just can't even imagine.
     
  17. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    I wonder how this thread affects the 60% FP distribution rate?
     
  18. raidermatt

    raidermatt Beware of the dark side. Anger...fear...aggressio

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    The things related in that other thread should not be a surprise to anyone.

    Disney is spending $1.5 billion on this, and that probably doesn't include all of the operational expenses. By comparison, the re-do of DCA was $1.1 billion.

    So they are looking for big time revenue out of this. How do you do that without actually offering any new attractions, and only small new experiences, AND while actually taking a few things away? You create demand for your new product by making the alternative less favorable. For example, you issue more FPs. This makes My Magic+ more valuable, and makes forgoing it a more unpleasant experience since standby lines will increase, and you will eventually not be able to use the current FP system at all.
     
  19. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    Wow, some interesting updates out there.

    Some speculative comments on my behalf -

    1. Fast Pass distribution: In theory, this new system could really be lean and efficient, reintroducing unused FP+ immediately back into the system with some sort of time and distance algorithm - ie - joe and betsy booked their 9 am space fp two months ago, but have slept in the morning of their fp+, and if the bracelet is not detected in the park by a certain time, that fp+ could reenter the pool. Or, it could adjust the hourly fp+ based on numerious unused fp+ in the previous hour with the 'here and now' and 'surprise and amaze' features.

    (note to self- the gps bus system for Disney sounded great on paper too - and what a nightmare that still is - awful!)

    2. Wowza on that thread regarding standby times Barry! For some reason, I thought Disney was going to offer carrots to make the FP+ a desired thing. Does not look that way, huh? Its a big ugly stick. Im not so sure this is malfunctioning technology as it is a stratedgy as Raidermatt stated in the post above. Maybe a combination of both.

    3. I would never argue that the billion bucks was well spent by Disney for us the avid user. 10 brand new E attractions would have been amazing. But marketing and promotion, efficiency and leaness, data and control, this could pay off big time for the mouse in the amount of money it is going to bring them. And if they did not think it was going to pay off big time, they would not be doing it, that is for sure.

    I do think however, there is a concept that may end up working amazing for us the user. A totally interactive experience while on Disney property, from the moment you enter the gates. Maybe from the moment you drive in. (I have no idea if this is the concept of the imagineers, but my speculation based on some of the limited details they have released). The concept is - the ride never stops- everything you do is interactive while in the park, making walking to your next attraction part of the fun, kwim? I dont think its just going to be 'Hello Megan' from the princess at the meet and greet. It could be walking down mainstreet, store displays react to your magic band, water squirts at your kids as they pass the fountains, Mickey appears 'magically' in pictures during your wait in line and 'talks to YOU" ie, specifically any data you have allowed the system to follow regarding your day, playing in the interactive games that are already in place, ect. A total immersion in Magic- if it works, it would be amazing.

    Background story - my parents took us as children to disney a couple of years after it opened. I would have been about 8. The one thing that I remember most about that visit - Peter Pan's Flight. As a kid, I had no idea about the 'track' above the boat, I thought it was really magic. It was so impressive, and I still love that ride even to this day, because of those memories. When I took my kids on that ride for the first time, it was not really magic to my 8 year old (5 year old, yes). But the techno and thrill seaking society they are growing up in, kids are not the same in this day and age, as they were 40 years ago. Consider what Walt thought was 'magical and impressive', compared to expectations of today. Hollygolitely made a statement not so long ago on a thread in this forum saying something to the effect that thrill rides are not so much catering to a age group (ie teens) so much as a height group - 48" - because if many tall 5 year olds and 6 year olds are wanting to do those thrilling rides as much as any teen. I dont mean the "Universal's Pee your Pants type of thrill ride", I mean the great Disney Family style thrill ride, like BTMRR. Now, imagine this same xbox playing 8 year old in todays age, walking by a painting of Mickey that magically comes to life- adresses the kid by name, and asks him how he liked space mountain which he just rode. If the kid answers I loved it - then maybe a scanable bar code comes up, and a suprise and amaze FP+ for Space is given to the family. I think (again, this is just my opinion), I think that kids would think that is pretty cool, and impressive - even if they understand the magic is a product of computer generation. And twenty years from now, they will be dragging their kids to see how cool Disney is, and reliving the 'magic' from their childhood. This is where I see the potential for us, the guest. And, as a concept, I think its a 'knock it out of the park' - IF and I say again IF they can make the technology work.
     
  20. raidermatt

    raidermatt Beware of the dark side. Anger...fear...aggressio

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    I think you are right that there can be some value in the interactive elements. Heck, I think even us old folks would be amazed by the ability to get that special FP+ because we said we loved Space Mt. But that example also speaks to part of the problem. In the end, you are still just redistributing what you already had. This new ability is being implemented INSTEAD of more tangible capital improvements.

    In other words, instead of giving the new generation the new improved version of your example of Peter Pan, Disney is trying to keep them satisfied with the current Peter Pan. If what you are saying about rising expectations is true, and I think that is true by the way, Disney's strategy isn't likely to work. We are already seeing that a lack of new attractions results in stagnating attendance.

    As a supplement to new attractions, this would have a much better chance of being a hit.
     
  21. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    Matt

    I cant argue your point about the regarding tangable capital improvements. You are right.

    But, I want to look at this like Disney the machine looks at this, not as a guest enjoying the park. And I think this is going to make them a WHACK of money, but not necessarily addressing stagnating attendance by adding huge, draw them in new attractions.

    What (I think) gets Disney hot and bothered and excited about this new product, (or rather perhaps, old product in a brand new package)...

    edited to add: If you dont want to read my long winded post, here is the summary: MORE MONEY OUT OF THE SAME NUMBER OF GUESTS

    1. Purchasing theme park tickets 60 days in advance: They have now tied a huge bow on early purchasing for theme park tickets by forcing people to want to book their FP+. This is not only for the onsite guest, but for the offsite guest. Not only do they get to hold our money 60 days or more out (nice interest), but it locks guests in to coming, or spending the number of days they purchased ESPECIALLY if they do away with the NON EXPIRING ticket!!! (side note: I have been mulling over the rumoured death of this ticket feature, and I think it has to tie in to the fact of the early purchase coupled with the 'guarentee' that once you use the first day, you are going to use all your days or lose them. Also, does that mean that we are in for a bumpy ride?)
    Ok, I know if I posted this on the themes board, I would have several people screaming - nobody is going to plan that early, most certainly not 'US", we didnt even want to plan our meals out that early! But, did you notice since the 'almost' disappearance of the walk up ressie, everybody books early, not only the educated user, but a larger majority? NOw, there are a few threads in theme parks talking about horrendous standby lines for the major attractions, and although nobody has said it out loud, I know they are all thinking - damn - we better make sure we get our fast passes. And when they do away with the old system, it will be the same people talking about strategys on booking the BEST fp+ at the 60 day mark. Can disney get the absolute non planner to do this? I think absolutely yes. With a little advertising, and some long frigging standby line experiences, perhaps an early purchase discount to start the program rolling - they are going to train their mice to run through the maze. thats my opinion, flame away!

    2. Cost Effectiveness, Crowd Control, Data and Management: If they can get a large percentage of the population to purchase tickets in advance and book their FP's, then, they are going to get a huge money savings reward - accurate planning for crowds, a tool to spread out the crowds between all four parks, a tool to spread out crowds within any given park, a device which to spread guests out even at quick service dining locations. HOLY CATS! Not only can they staff parks accurately, but by spreading out the crowds, they can encourage SPENDING in both the food and merchandise industry. If the line up is short for the 'till' or counter, and the process of purchasing is quick and simple, then people are more likely get in the line. Which brings up another huge money maker for the Big D

    3. Purchasing STUFF: I got an education from rustyscrappers thread regarding the magic bands. They are magic all right, magic for the mouse. Waving an arm infront of a reader at the til, and presto, item paid for - will speed up the process of checking out to a huge degree, allowing more people through the line at a faster rate. Added benefit of the casino chip mentality - its not cold hard cash you are handing over, yet. Even if you are sending your purchase back to your hotel room, all the data is associated with that chip, instead of filling in a form. Great thread. Mega return on the investment for Mickey.

    4.The magical express of the magic + : I loved how Disney just took a huge whack out any competing theme park or attraction in Orlando by offering guests FREE bus ride to and from the theme parks. Just a free bus ride - but it makes guests not get a rental car, and go explore other attractions. Land locks those resort guests in. Brilliant. Here is the tie in: I think that with FP+, prebooking the fastpass, non expiring ticket disappearance, is going to do the same thing in a more subtle way. Lock those guests in, but not only RESORT guests, but hello, all those who stay off site too - because NOW, Disney has their greedy little hands on them too. (assuming disney can train them to prepurchase and plan - which I think YES, but several think NO). But think about it, Disney is attempting to lock in off site guests, and what those guests do, and EVEN WHEN. Its a hot sunny day, and the Holiday Inn guest was thinking of trying to get to the local other waterpark, but - the misses booked space mountain and Wishes for today. They were hard to get! And it seems we cant change that FP+ for those events anytime while we are down, and our tickets will expire at the end of the trip, so we better go to the MK. Hmmmm,,,, nice. (I love the psychology of those Disney Bean counters)

    5: Seven Day Vacation Theory: I was reading some interesting forums regarding the fact that no matter how much stuff Disney builds, majority of guests still will only stay 7 days. The four parks and 2 waterparks are enough to interest and keep people for 7 days, adding more wont net a tangible growth. I am probably going to state this wrong, or not be clear at what I am trying to say, but Disney does not want to add Whacks more of people to their parks, they want to spread them out throughout the year, and run close to maximum at all times. I think you can see that Disney is being successful at doing this right now (think how busy the fall is now, which use to be so slow- but those Halloween parties are a big draw, and the dreaded free dining too). Now, just go and read the theme parks forum, and see how successful Disney is at wooing the international traveler for January and February. Huge tour groups big time. I think this new FP+ is just another major wheel in this cog - and my major point here is - Disney is not worried too much about adding a large quantitiy of new major attractions to bring people in. I think they will just add enough, or renew and revamp enough, to bring people back. The cavaet to this is AK and perhaps even Epcot to a degree - I think they have to add a few attractions, and at least one E attraction to these parks just purely for the FP+ management. Last thought on this. If 10 major E attractions cost 1 billion (a number I stole off Robo (or mesaboy?) I think on another thread), do you think an increase in attendance would pay off for Disney like FP+ would? Nope, I dont think so. I think its easy to see how disney is going to make huge sums of money (huge tracts of land anybody? :>) with this new program. It could be how they think they are going to fund a new land in AK with a substantial increase in revenue that will happen consistently at all 4 parks. jmho.

    6. Promotion: I think it will be easy to see how extra FP+ will be used as an enticement for people to stay onsite. It will probably replace EMH, allowing for shorter hours, less staffing ect ect. A very effective and cost saving promo. Brilliant. Huge money maker.

    7. The New Generation Theme Park: I want to say, that if done right, the immersive interactive element of this program, can be a huge plus for Disney. It could be a major draw, done right. The potential is there. I am concerned that they have the idea for this, but their technology is going to lag behind. I was reading the threads regarding the horror of Disney's free WIFI, and how there are current issues with disneys technology equipment, which will cause big old issue. I am assuming that part of the 1 billion is to update and improve these issues, but you know what assuming does! So, it could end up like the bus gps system - nice idea, terrible application, negative result.
     

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