FP+ Capacity per Park Summary of Work so far 2/9/2013

Discussion in 'Disney Rumors and News' started by bcrook, Jan 26, 2013.

  1. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    I am trying to figure out how many total fastpass slots are a available for each park. Which leads to an interesting question of how they will be doled out by Disney.

    Total FP+ needed per park per day based on the idea of 1 e-ticket FP+ and 2 other rides.

    Magic Kingdom = 46,500 e-ticket FP+ and 93,000 other FP+
    Hollywood Studios = 27,000 e-ticket FP+ and 54,000 other FP+
    Animal Kingdom = 27,000 e-ticket FP+ and 54,000 other FP+
    Epcot + 27,000 e-ticket FP+ and 54,000 other FP+

    Total FP+ available from each park based on 60% FP+ distribution:
    Magic Kingdom (14 hours) = 80,000 e-ticket and 128,000 other FP+
    Hollywood Studios = (13 hours) = 42,500 e-ticket and 60,000 other FP+
    Animal Kingdom (10 hours) = 37,800 e-ticket and 46,000 other FP+
    Epcot (10 hours) = 40,800 e-ticket and 62,500 other FP+

    Total Surplus e-ticket FP+ per day = 72,000
    Total Surplus other FP+ per day = 41,000

    Total surplus = 113,000 Fastpasses.

    If Disney overbooks 10% for no-shows that would add 11,000 more and every morning extra magic hour adds more capacity. 125,000 extra FP a day on average.

    How could those extra be "used"?

    1. Surprise and Delight sent to people throughout the day.
    2. Incentives for Deluxe guests.
    3. They could be sold for $5.00 a pop (100,000 a day would equal $182,000,000 a year).
    4. They could make them available for Free during the day first come first serve.

    What they can't do is...
    Add 1 more to everybody's pile. It really looks like 3 is the magic number. 4 would bust the system.

    UNLESS - they build more rides!
     
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  3. lockedoutlogic

    lockedoutlogic DIS Veteran

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    Its been documented on a couple of those....

    Haunted mansion could handle about 3000 per hour...i believe the first ride system ever to do so...so you do the math on that.

    Pirates would be probably a little less...but i think that also is north of 2500.

    Peter pan would be around the same if it didn't break down all the time...but it has the same continuous circuit kinda system as haunted mansion...so again you're right there.

    All disney rides - more or less - especially at WDW were built with capacity first and foremost.
    If you look at it...there are probably many rides and technologies that were scrapped because of this one requirement.

    I've heard people mention on the street before - "disney is great...but alot of the rides/ shows seem to be the same"

    wonder why?
    especially the original epcot - where it was all basically the same ride system with a few little tweaks and changes - except universe of energy - ironically the opposite of a good use of time.

    toy story mania is i'm sure high capacity too...but i don't remember seeing any kind of exact number.
     
  4. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    Magic kingdom total fastpass plus -

    E-ticket FP+ allotment
    Space mountain - 21,000
    Splash mountain - 15,000
    Big thunder mountain - 18,000
    Peter Pan - 6700
    Little Mermaid 15120
    Total - 80,000 @ 60% FP+ distribution and 14 hours Mine train (another 18,000?)

    Second tier allotment
    Pirates of Caribbean - 20,000
    Haunted Mansion - 30,240
    Ranger Spin - 7500
    Winnie the Pooh - 6700
    Jungle Cruise - 15,000
    Monsters Inc laugh floor - 10,000
    Dumbo - 10,000
    Flying carpets 7500
    Barnstormer - 7500
    Mickeys philarmagic -3,000
    Totals. - 120,000

    Enchanted Tales with Belle - 1000
    Other meet and greets - 2500
    Parades - 2000
    Fireworks - 1000
    Quick service meals - 1000
    Total - 7,500

    If 50,000 people are in MK and there is a 210,000 FP+ capacity.
    50,000 e tickets limit one per person
    100,000 minor attractions. Limit two per person.

    That leaves 30,000 left over e tickets FP and 27,500 minor FP available. Once everyone is switched over to the FP+ system.
     
  5. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    E-tickets 60% FP+ rate at 13 hours:
    Toy Story Midway Mania!® - 12,500
    The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror™ 14,000
    Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster® Starring Aerosmith 16,000
    Total - 42,500

    Star Tours® – The Adventure Continues. 15000
    The Great Movie Ride®. 23000
    Indiana Jones™ Epic Stunt Spectacular! [holds 10,000 a day] 3000 FP+ seems like a stretch?
    Lights, Motors, Action!® Extreme Stunt Show®. 1000
    Muppet*Vision 3D. 2000
    The American Idol® Experience. 2000
    Disney Junior – Live on Stage!
    Voyage of the Little Mermaid
    Jedi training - ?

    Fantasmic! 2000
    Pixar pals parade 1000
    Meet in greets 2000
    QS meals 1000
    Tol 55,000

    Average attendance 26,000.

    Surplus e tickets - 16000
    Surplus other - 5,000
     
  6. TheRustyScupper

    TheRustyScupper Just once, I want to see a liar's pants on fire.

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    What are your best guesses for daily (15 hour day) ride capacity for

    Pirates of the Caribbean
    . . . a lot

    Haunted Mansion
    . . . a lesser lot

    Peter Pan
    . . . even a lesser lot

    Toy Story Midway Mania
    . . . a lot


    Sorry, but that is my best guess.:confused3
     
  7. bcrook

    bcrook DIS Veteran

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    That plugs in nicely to the spreadsheet! :lmao:
     
  8. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    I understand that there are a couple of 'Disney' terms that would help working out potential fast pass numbers for specific rides.

    THRC- Theoretical Hourly Ride Capacity
    OHRC - Operational Hourly Ride Capacity.

    Disney really closely guards this information, and it is not readily or easily (or even perhaps accutrately) available to the general public. So, when I list a 'known' number for hourly visitors, I use that term a little loosely, because Disney is not publishing these numbers - they could be inaccurate. Just sayin.

    With Disney Fan sites, and a few indiscrete lead hands, the miracle of google, some of the numbers are 'known'. Some are even 'calculated' by interested guests, (they clock the ride vehicle, and count the number of cars, and the number of guests per car) to come up with a number.

    The actual maximum number of potential people that can ride an attraction will be the THRC x The number of hours the park is open.

    I think the OHRC is the maximum reasonable number of people the attraction can handle when it considers potential loss of time due to - intrusions, delays, stoppages, restarts, ect.

    I think when Disney calculates the number of fast pass available, they use the OHRC so OHRC x number of hours x a percentage (Is it 15? Is it 20? 25? 50?)

    When you listed your numbers above barry, did you get them from doing searches on the internet? I dont want to double up the effort. And I want to say, a daily total is kinda useless for us - because we dont have the data on how long that day was. We need the OHRC to make a more accurate calculation, its a huge factor - especially when you figure in the limited number of hours AK is generally open for.

    I also want to ask where the numbers came for calculating 'quick' service fast pass, and also parade and firework numbers.

    I am especially interested in the quick service FP, because I think that ultimately, Disney wants to TIE the guests to certain locations at certain times of the day buy using a combination of 'meal' and attraction. This would effectively spread out the guests throughout the day, and make the most use of each and every counter service location, not just the popular ones. It would also spread out the guests meal time so there is not a glut at 12, but starts at 11 and goes til 1:30 say. KWIM? So, I think, there will be eventually 1/3 of all fp+ available will be for quick service meals, possibly. (feel free to shoot this horse if Disney has stated otherwise)

    My for example on 'tethering of a guest'. Perhaps when you log on to do your FP+, you pick your tier 1 and teir 2 attraction. After you have picked those, Disney will offer you certain CS options that are tied to that area. So if you picked splash and haunted mansion, perhaps they would only show peco bills and columbia as your options - to keep you on your side of the park for a good portion of the day. Now, imagine if they could evenly spread out the 'tethers' throughout the park, so even the least utilized CS is busy. Its efficient on time, and would maybe maximize use of staff, lower waiting time for food, and potentially increase sales.

    Ok, I digressed there. Back on track: how can we logically figure out what percentage of Fast passes are available on any given ride for any given hour? lets debate this: because I think you made some good points, but I dont think its 50%. I dont think this information is anywhere on the internet, and Disney wont be sayin, but maybe if we list our 'knowns' we can come to a hypothetical conclusion.
     
  9. YoHo

    YoHo If you have any poo to fling, now is the time.

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    Haunted has the highest OHRC. I believe it's around 3600. Haven't looked at it in years.
    Pirates is around 2500.
    I believe splash is around 1200.
    The rollercoasters even lower.


    Also, counterintuitivly, Fastpass makes the parks feel fuller. Since without fast pass, thousands of people would be in queues off the streets and instead, they are now in the walkways virtually in line.
     
  10. lockedoutlogic

    lockedoutlogic DIS Veteran

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    theoretically...your could calculate the capacity of the haunted mansion by figuring out the speed of the car and track length.

    It's actually not to difficult of mathematical computation...Algebra II or below.

    But they have said - I know for the haunted mansion -on some of the Discovery/Travel Channel Shows numbers specifically dealing with that ride.

    They do keep some of the numbers "secret"...but not necessarily what i would call "closely guarded"

    There's a way to find out to a certain level of confidence...but perhaps no "iron clad" numbers
     
  11. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    It might be easiest if we just look at one attraction to figure out the possible calculation, then doing a general concept for all attractions (because I am not good at math for one, and also because I think every attraction has its own unique number, taking into consideration many things.

    Lets start with splash mountain, because I caught some CM chatter from a lead hand regarding OHRC. Its 1800 per hour. Can they do more then 1800? absolutely, apparently they can frequently get to 1900 and sometimes even 2000, depending on the crew working load, unload, dispatch and something called the triple dispatch.

    From the verbage this cast member used, I feel relatively confident that this is a pretty accurate average hourly number - this is a good 'known' to start with.

    So OHRC is 1800 for splash.
    Now, park hours - we will just use a hypothetical number: I would say typically during non peak and regular season, the Park is open from 9am to 7 pm. I want to use this number, for simplisticy sake, because it equals 10 hrs. Obviously, the busier the season, the longer the park hours, the more fast passes can be generated.

    So, we have 2 fields we can fill in for our equasion. How can we figure out the percentage logically? (I dont know how to do this, but maybe by sounding things out, we can figure it out together as a group?)

    Here are some things we know about fastpass - you have a 1 hr window of return time. They are spread out by what interval? Is it 10 minutes? or 20 minutes? Do you have any old FP kicking around? YKWIM? Return times could be 10:20, 10:40, or whatever. I am not sure if they increase by 10 minutes or 20 minutes or 5 minutes. Anyone know? Anyone have some old FPs kicking around?

    Ok, Im off to see if I can find any old FPs.
     
  12. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    Good Point regarding crowds outside. Someone once told me that the general disney tourist that has figured out how to get a fast pass, still stands around the attraction waiting for their 'window' to open, ironically. This is really bad in frontierland where 2 of the big mountains live.

    My research shows 3600 OHRC for Haunted mansion too. The problem is there are many attractions where there is not even a sniff of what the OHRC is.
     
  13. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    Just wondering what way you mean. Internet? Thats what I am researching, however you may has some ideas or places to specifically look? That would be great if you could give me some direction. :cool1:

    Sometimes when I post, I wonder if what I say can be totally misconstrued. There is no sarcasm intended - NONE AT ALL - Just hopeful optimism that you can direct me specifically somewhere to look. :)
     
  14. lockedoutlogic

    lockedoutlogic DIS Veteran

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    I'm saying that we can reasonable establish through a variety of measures...internet, print literature, cast member knowledge and experience, and disney history...what a fairly reasonable number for capacities will be.

    But they aren't going to officially acknowledge it. Though it's pretty benign/harmless information.
     
  15. hopemax

    hopemax Note to Self:

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    Here's the stuff I have written down from years ago, from when I was trying to collect such stuff.

    Of course, some of these attractions are no longer there, or the experience has changed so it might have affected capacity. Also, with things like Pirates and IASW, I think they can't load the boats as full as they could have in 1975, because of increased guest size.

    Studios

    Rock n' Roller Coaster: 1800 (based on 24 people per car, 48 second dispatch time)
    Tower of Terror: 2038 (theoretical when it first opened, I don't know if the new drop profiles have changed the dispatch time)

    Epcot

    Once upon a time, Epcot used to give out fact sheets with this type of thing. There are THRC (Theoretical Hourly Ride Capacity) vs OHRC (Operational Hourly Ride Capacity)

    Spaceship Earth: 2895 (2400 WDW Magic)
    Living Seas: 2200
    Horizons: 2784 (2660 WDW Magic)
    World of Motion: 3240
    Journey v 1: 2576 ( 2240 WDW Magic)
    Image Works: 2800 (600-800 in area at one time)
    Magic Eye Theater:1714 (1776 WDW Magic)

    EO and Magic Journeys theater sat 600 vs. HISTAs 575, HISTA is 3 minutes longer than EO/MJ so they would have been able to get one or two more shows daily than HISTA does)

    American Adventure: 2,048 per hour/1,024 per show (WDW Magic)
    El Rio del Tiempo: 1,656 per hour, 16 per boat (WDW Magic)
    Maelstrom: 1,920 per hour (WDW Magic)
    The Land (WDW Magic)
    2,736 per hour, 36-38 per boat (Living with the Land)
    1,062 per hour, 428 per show (Circle of Life)
    1,014 per hour, 250 per show (Food Rocks)


    Magic Kingdom

    Alien Encounter: 1,620 per hour, 162 per show (WDW Magic)
    Carousel of Progress: 3,600 per hour, 226 per theater (WDW Magic)
    Haunted Mansion: 3200
    Pirates: 3,600 per hour, 15-18 per boat (WDW Magic)
    Space Mountain: 900-1200 per hour; 2057-2500 if both sides open; 6 guests per rocket (WDW Magic)
     
  16. hopemax

    hopemax Note to Self:

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    My curiosity about this whole thing is, "Will the capacity of the most popular attractions end up determining daily park attendance?"

    Would you go to a park, if you don't have Fastpasses reserved, making riding a top-tier attraction difficult? This is a question locals, and people that tend to make trips with short notice are going to have to answer.

    I kind of hope that Fastpass+ ends up creating a crisis situation where the parks need to add capacity among E-ticket level rides if they want to increase attendance. Also, that they will have to increase the quality (ie perform proper maintenance and "refreshing") of middle-tier attractions, so if you go to a park and can't ride the headliner attractions, you will still think you had a satisfying day. Right now, I'm not sure people will be happy if their day consisted of the Treehouse, Tiki Room, Hall of Presidents, Peoplemover, the Carousel and Tom Sawyer's Island. Just guessing about what theoretically may be visitable by people "just showing up," without forethought. Like the limited choices that happens now with dining reservations. Or visiting a park on a Holiday - but with far fewer people physically in the park. If every day is like that, I can't see it as being a win for Disney. Especially, for the smaller parks. How many people show up at AK people know you can't get on Everest and the Safari without booking your FP months in advance? The Studios if ToT and RnRC are booked up? This is the one area that based on how Disney does things, I'm sure they are NOT properly accounting for human behavior.

    On second thought, after spending $1.5 billion on technology, I can't really see them dumping a ton of money on rides. It's always seemed to me that Fastpass, and now this, were being used as the cheaper option to deal with what has always been, a capacity problem. But I'll still hope this will force Disney's hand.
     
  17. hopemax

    hopemax Note to Self:

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    Sorry, where are these numbers coming from? Are they your own speculations? I don't know specifics for the dark rides, but I think they are less than 1000 people per hour. The dispatch time is much slower than, say HM. So 8000, maybe 10,000 people for 10 hours. So it's very unlikely FP will be distributed in the same volume as the Omnimovers.

    I did find this comment over on WDW Magic from 2004 by a former CP in Fantasyland

    Of course, we can double Dumbo's numbers now.
     
  18. hopemax

    hopemax Note to Self:

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    From another website

    Expedition Everest

    From WDWMagic, several different posts that Splash is 1800 per hour
     
  19. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    These are very helpful posts, hopemax. - your OHRC on a lot of these attractions are probably still pretty accurate, even though they are 'dated'.. And it was nice to take a trip down memory lane when you listed some of the old beauties at Epcot. Food Rocks fascinated my kids when they were little, and I liked it too!

    Regarding your comment on the 'crisis' that may be incurred with this new system. I humbly submit that you are thinking like a vetran, and not joe disney goer - first time or very infrequent, or very limited knowledge on Disney. I dont think this system is to satisfy us, but its to make the general larger majority a little happier. They may be thrilled to score Haunted Mansion and Small world as their 2 FP choices, because they really dont know any better? Hypothosis on my part, and I suppose you would have to know how big the middle section of the bell curve people this is going to appeal too. Maybe there are more educated users out there then I give credit for.

    I've also really enjoyed reading some of the sophisticated threads on this board, and its really opened my eyes. For some reason I thought I knew why Disney was spending their billion (vain girl!) that is data, crowd control, crowd dispersment, promotion and joe blow customer satisfaction. But after reading Rustys thread on RFID's, I now realize that perhaps the golden goose in all this is Merchandise and sales! (What exactly is skimming lockedoutlogic?)

    I have also been reflecting on my Counter Service FP+ to eventually take over one entire tier of the FP+, but there is a big old hole in that idea. Although counterservice places may be typically be open the entire 'park' day - you will not get joe public to book his lunch meal at 10:20 am, or 3:20 pm. Ie, much more limited usable FP+ allotment for CS places, because they are 'time of day' driven.

    I did find a few old FP kicking around in my Disney box, and it seems that the lowest common denominator is 5 minutes from my Buzz FP. However, I seem to recall some TSM tickets starting at weird times like 10:22, but am not 100% sure. If anyone has imput on this, I would love to hear it.

    TY for the responses!

    ~A
     
  20. Rileygirl

    Rileygirl DIS Veteran

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    Ok, here goes an attempt at fast pass+ calculations for the magic Kingdom: I am going to post this in 2 parts, as its long, and perhaps boring.

    Premise:
    I am making some major assumptions, which could very much render any and all data and conclusions irrelevant. I have no ‘inside’ knowledge whatsoever, just a little research on the data that is available on the internet. I will try and explain any reasoning I use when I pick numbers, hours, attractions, percentages ect, so you can determine if you think there is any value in my conclusions.

    Background Stats:

    (I suppose here is a good place to say, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics – Mark Twain)

    1. Yearly attendance at MK in 2008 was 17063000 giving a daily attendance average figure of 46747 per day. Yearly MK attendance in 2010 was down a little, 16972000 – making the average daily attendance, 46498 per day

    2. Maximum capacity of MK is said to be 100,000 as per google search.

    3. Daily Hours at MK on average – right, I looked at the dis calendar for the MK from Jan – April, at although there were a very few 9-8’s, it was mostly 9-10 or more (spring break, Easter, and the early part of January that is part of the xmas break frequently had 8am-1am)

    4. Right now Disney is saying there will be 3FP+ for every guest using the system. Assuming that EVERYONE who enters the park is using FP+, that means at Peak season, MK needs 300,000 FP+ available, and using 2008 figures, a daily total of 140,241 FP+ on average

    5. % of FP+ available at any given attraction: This is a bit of a stumper for me, so I am going to forward 3 scenarios 1) 16.6% (assuming that 10 minutes out of every hour is equivalent to 1/6 of the total hourly FP+, i.e. – I frequently only wait about 10 minutes upon entering the FP que before getting on the attraction, therefore THAT is THE percentage of number of people ahead of me in the fp que working with the standby line) 2) 33.33% (assuming that you generally wait 20 minutes in the fp que) 3) 50% (assuming a half an hour wait is typical in fast pass line). Is this assumption valid? I don’t know, but it sounds logical spock.

    Additional Background information and assumptions:

    1. As per some internet searches on several websites, during the testing phase of FP+, these were the attractions available for picks: Space, Splash Pooh, Pan, Mickeys Philharmagic, Buzz, Jungle Cruise, Meet the Princesses, Meet Mickey, Haunted mansion. These were split into 2 groups, but I cannot get the definitive answer on which were where. So, I am guessing a little, although I did have a solid report that Space and Splash were on one side, and Peter Pan and Pooh on the other side. Notice BTMRR is not on the list, and this is no where near all the attractions and interactive fp+s that will be available when this goes online.

    2. OHRC numbers are ones that have been found on various internet sites coming from a solid source. If this is not the case, then I will note it per attraction. The character meets I have absolutely no knowledge or education on them at this time (we never do them, so its out of my personal experience too)– its a very weak link in this hypothesis. However, I will say that there are 2 knowns about these character meets 1) slow process and most likely low daily numbers. 2) Mickey and the princesses only appear in one place at one time, Disney choreographs this, and this is still a fact to the best of my knowledge.

    3. Attraction Variables: Each attraction is unique, so giving all attractions a ‘percentage’ of FP+ is not actually accurate. I am positive each attraction has its own percentage of fp available, taking into accounts different variables like: ride reliability, how it handles handicap riders (does the ride stop, or can continue in continuous loop?) are there frequent incursions, where the FP line meets the standby line, ect. I am hoping that it ‘all comes out in the wash’ with an average, especially since OHRC’s are based on some of these variables, the rides can easily and frequently exceed the OHRC’s.

    4. FP+ staggering: I am going to say that FPs come out in 5 minute intervals, allowing for 12 intervals per hour. Its possible that they can or will stagger this at a lower common denominator, or that some attractions will. Here is a big old assumption on my part regarding these intervals: Now that Disney is enforcing the 1 hr rule, guests will generally enter the line as soon as they are allowed to do so, on average. This staggering will allow Disney to really max out the FP %, because crowd flow will be very efficient. (again – maybe not accurate, but the assumption I am working with.)

    Facts and Equations

    1. I am going to use 9am to 11pm for the average park hours of the MK, making it 14 hrs. I did not average out all the hours. If someone wants to work out the average from Jan to April, I will use that number. But as it is, there is enough math for me to conquer (and as you know, math is not my forte).

    2. I am going to use the 2008 numbers, and the average daily number of 46747, meaning the requirement of 140241 fp+ available.

    3. OHRCs
    Space: 2500
    Splash: 1800
    Pooh: 850
    Pan: 800
    Philharmagic: 1500
    Jungle cruise: 1700 (got this off a blog, not a great source)
    Haunted Mansion: 3600
    Meet Mickey: no idea so here is a ‘flyer’ – lets say Mickey can do 1 group per minute, and the group consists of 4 people ohrc is 240. Is this way low?? Could there be 2 mickeys if they are in enclosed areas and not visable to the GP? I think that is contrary to walt, but how are they going to fp mickey at the MK with only 1 mickey available at any given minute????
    Meet Princesses: Touring plans says there is a rotating cast of 3 princesses at the MK: so 3x4x60 is 720

    Part 2 to follow eventually.
     
  21. skier_pete

    skier_pete DIsney-holics Anon

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    The new designs for these meet n greets have made it so they can have 2 or 3 M&Gs running at once. For a popular one such as Mickey or the Princesses, you can assume there are two sets of M&Gs. (The new one in the old SWA will clearly have this as well.)
     

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