Forecast - thunderstorms next 10 days

[RobbW]

Our family is flying to MCO from Chicago tomorrow night. Our flight is scheduled to arrive in MCO at 10:30 pm. I'm not so worried about our vacation potentially being very wet. My biggest concern is just getting there. I don't want our flight to be cancelled or delayed for hours. We've experienced too many flight problems like that in the past and would really just like to have an on-time uneventful flight down to Orlando. I'm hoping that since the current forecast is showing the system making landfall tomorrow night north and west of the Orlando area that our flight will be able to skirt any issues by staying to the east.

I'll gladly take rain in WDW. Just get me there!!!

 

[CounselorX]

I'm actually more concerned about Ex-Invest 92L which should make it to the Lesser Antilles Islands around Sunday which could mean it's 8 to 10 days away from Florida (from today) if it takes that track. I know it's highly unpredictable, but I'll be observing it every day.

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

This storm is starting aggravate me just a tad. Not worried about rain after we get there, but our time frame for driving down tomorrow evening from NC (planning to stop somewhere and spend the night) is not lining up well at all with the storm track or timeline. Looks like we are going to have to be super flexible and cautious.

 

[Accident]

This storm is starting aggravate me just a tad. Not worried about rain after we get there, but our time frame for driving down tomorrow evening from NC (planning to stop somewhere and spend the night) is not lining up well at all with the storm track or timeline. Looks like we are going to have to be super flexible and cautious.

That's how I've always approached coming down. I've come down in 3 storms now over the last 11 years and I have no problem being at disney during any type of weather event, my house was far enough away I didn't need to worry about it and had enough time to get back if I things changed but as long as I could safely get to WDW, I went and never once regretted it (and found the best time and lowest crowds of all my stays at wdw)... I wouldn't hesitate to come with the family right now as long as I felt I could travel safely.

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

That's how I've always approached coming down. I've come down in 3 storms now over the last 11 years and I have no problem being at disney during any type of weather event, my house was far enough away I didn't need to worry about it and had enough time to get back if I things changed but as long as I could safely get to WDW, I went and never once regretted it (and found the best time and lowest crowds of all my stays at wdw)... I wouldn't hesitate to come with the family right now as long as I felt I could travel safely.

I'm almost 100% sure we are coming down regardless, just being very weather-aware. My two priorities are: 1) safety, and 2) not unintentionally obstructing potential disaster recovery in an area trying to regroup after a storm. I appreciate your info from an Orlando perspective.

Question for road warriors... It's been 2-3 decades since I have tried to get a motel room in the wee hours of the morning. Do chain motels let you come in at 2am-3am these days or do they close the books at a certain time? Seems like my distant memory is that it used to be some chains would check you in at any time and others would not.

 

[stephmarty]

I'm still only seeing 40-50% chances of precip with scattered and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for the next few days. Am I missing something? I hate it when the news overhypes these storms for ratings (imo). I know there's preparedness and all that, but I'm not sure that's always the real motivation of what we are seeing on TV. It causes a lot of stress and sometimes costs families a lot of money to change plans, so I hope it's truly warranted here.

 

[lovethattink]

I've been following Denis Phillips from ABC action news. Things keep changing. Looks like north and west of Orlando will get the most punch from the storm.

I'm starting to see schools (Pinellas County) and outdoor activities issuing closing notices (Polk County).

 

[Jadyreen1282]

I'll gladly take rain in WDW. Just get me there!!!

I'm right behind you Friday morning. Report in if you can with an update Thursday night please. It'd be a relief if at least one flight got into MCO during this mess from up here.

 

[LittleMissMagic]

I fly in to Orlando Friday evening. I live in Los Angeles where rain is never a concern! I'm used to the typical afternoon downpours in Orlando, but this vacation looks like it's going to be very wet!

 

[Mr. Drauer]

yes the local weather folks will always attempt to overhype, in the name of safety, but with these systems they still cannot accurately predict things until the last minute, and even then it can be off. the intermediate update (1:00 CDT) has now classified and named it Tropical Storm Hermine, as the system had become more organized and the track is solidifying. With landfall sometime mid-afternoon Thursday near the Big Bend, tropical storm force winds and heavy rain will be in the Central Florida area on and off from early Thursday morning until Friday afternoon. This means that you could have a windy storm for an hour, then 2 hours of sunshine, followed by another wave of rain, etc. If it moves anymore north or west, it might not affect Central Florida much at all. The threat from severe weather (heavy T-storms and possible tornadoes) is more likely on Thursday prior to it making landfall as the area of a storm with the strongest influence is to the northeast of the center (say from 12:00 to 3:00 on the dial of the clock) It should be offshore north of Savannah by noon on Friday, and much of the effects should be gone by then. For those driving - hit or miss along I-75 and I-95 Thursday. Overnight Thursday and early Friday might be the worst around Jacksonville. I suggest NOAA's hurricane website as a more sound source than any of the local news. www.hurricanes.gov

 

[lucas]

If driving up means coming from south florida, not too much to worry about. If driving up means heading south to disney then overnight thursday (friday morning) about 2am is when they expect it to hit land..

This narrows down the weather to the theme parks area but the video is the overall video they are doing for the storm so it sounds worse than it's going to be as there are areas not far from theme park land expected to be much worse.. http://www.clickorlando.com/weather/attractions

Thanks for the info & fantastic link!

Yes - we are driving UP from West Palm Beach/Fort Lauderdale area - we are 200 miles south of Orlando. I hate to drive in the rain, so I am hoping it is not too too bad. Don't care about after we get there.

ETA: from the radar in the link, it looks like severe weather is moving into Orlando now.

 

[chicagoshannon]

as previously mentioned, it's not just a normal day with rain forcasted- i.e. rain for 15 minutes then stop. it is a tropical depression. it has been raining non stop since last night here in Tampa Bay area

We're flying into Tampa on Saturday. Is it supposed to be over by then there?

 

[Mr. Drauer]

We're flying into Tampa on Saturday. Is it supposed to be over by then there?

it is supposed to near North Carolina Saturday morning.

 

[flatlandcycle]

Too bad you can't hop a Puma Punku golden spaceship.

The predictions from weather underground/tropical show more of a hit in the panhandle around Apalachicola. If that ends up being the storm track, I-95 might be less bad. If landfall looks more like Cedar Key the viability and intensity on I-95 will be bad at times Thursday night.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Depression-Nine?map=model

 

[maryj11]

This storm is starting aggravate me just a tad. Not worried about rain after we get there, but our time frame for driving down tomorrow evening from NC (planning to stop somewhere and spend the night) is not lining up well at all with the storm track or timeline. Looks like we are going to have to be super flexible and cautious.

I know what you mean, my son is traveling to SC tomorrow. I think the worst of the storm coming up the coast of NC and SC will happen Friday.

 

[Dawgdad]

Frogg Toggs are around $25 on Amazon. They're lightweight and easy to take on and off.

That would be worst case scenario - but as others have said, rarely is weather all or none in Orlando. If I had to bet, you (and me...we'll be there Thursday-Tuesday) won't see more than scattered showers all weekend.

 

[sunshinemelody]

Not sure, as I'm not up to speed and am at work, if anyone heard that FL is in a state of emergency?

I get confused with the no links thing as sometimes I see folks with links and whatnot, so, here ya go.

 

[flatlandcycle]

I'm still only seeing 40-50% chances of precip with scattered and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for the next few days. Am I missing something? I hate it when the news overhypes these storms for ratings (imo). I know there's preparedness and all that, but I'm not sure that's always the real motivation of what we are seeing on TV. It causes a lot of stress and sometimes costs families a lot of money to change plans, so I hope it's truly warranted here.

The scattered storms will be in the bands of the tropical storm, you can watch them spiral in with any radar-in-motion app. That's also where a rare tornado can be spawned.

One of the things that happens during these storms is that grocery shelves get picked bare. Residents need to prep for three days of food and water, at least. Gasoline stations may not have power so you need to have a full tank of gas. You may want to fill a bathtub with water so you have water to flush a toilet. It's been a few years since any significant event, people have become complacent and need to be reminded.

Once you are at Disney this is specific storm, Hermine, is likely to be a minor event. If it affects your air travel you might sleep in the airport. People making a living on the west coast of Florida need to pay attention to storm surge and flooding, as it stands, not so much to the wind. Someone is likely to be killed during this storm, probably by drowning in rip currents or flooded streams. Many may lose their power. Hermine could still turn into a minor hurricane. Don't stress it, you just need to be a little more vigilant. Disney is built to withstand these events with much of their utilities underground. Locals will book rooms at Disney to guarantee power for getting work in Orlando. You should have a blast at Disney, the temps will be moderate and the crowds will be sparse.

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

I know what you mean, my son is traveling to SC tomorrow. I think the worst of the storm coming up the coast of NC and SC will happen Friday.

Yep, my goal is to get as far south as possible tomorrow night. I just wish I could get away earlier

 

[lucas]

Looks like our trip will be on after all. See you there!