Thanks for all the replies, its been very informative.
DVC is a 50year contract, why would you view it as a 10yr or even 30 committment?
My professional career is in the finance/accounting field. Part of the training in this area of study is learning how to value future cash flows. In my years of classes in finance Ive learned that emphasis needs to be put on the immediate future because the long term future is unknowable. If you were going to ask me to value a share of Apple stock Id put the most emphasis on what I think Apple will do the next five or ten years, not what they will do 25 years from now.
So for DVC its the same thing, Im using the immediate and predictable future rather than the unpredictable long term future. If DVC is a good buy (or in this case buying resort A over resort B is a good decision) for the next ten years then I can assume it will be even better after 10 years.
I wonder if there isn't a fundamental error in these "points needed" calculations. It just doesn't seem rational that you'd pay $10 more per point AND pay higher dues and come out with a lower total cost.
If you need 340 pts for X days at AKV and 440 points for X days at SSR then you could pay more per point for AKV up front and for dues and still cost less because you need 20% fewer points. (5.44 X 340 < 4.73 X 440)
I have a hard time believing that you need more than a 100 more points SSR vs AK.
I got the points from DVC news.com and I took the lowest points needed for a one bedroom
Heres my math on how I came up with the point totals needed
Resort Memorial Day; Summer; Labor Day;
total
Animal Kingdom 26*2+23 ; 188; 26*2+19;
334
Old Key West 32*2+27; 222; 32*2+21;
398
Boardwalk Villas 33*2+28 ; 220; 33*2+20;
400
Saratoga Springs 36*2+31; 241; 36*2+24 ;
440
Bay Lake Tower 40*2+34 ; 268; 40*2+26;
488
Beach Club 40*2+35 ; 269 ; 40*2+27;
491
Wilderness Lodge 40*2+35; 271; 40*2+28;
494
I think the OP should use $50 per point for Saratoga springs, not $60.
The price per point was estimated from fidelity and time share store current for-sale listings. While my price point may not be perfect I believe my final result is accurate: that BLT, WLV and BCV cost significantly more over ten years than AKV, BWV, OKW, and SSR for the same vacation time at Disneyworld. So Im trying to figure out if its worth the added cost. If I use $50 for SSR rather than $60 it wont change my result: SSR will still be cheaper over 10 years than BLT/BCV/VWL. Whether SSR is cheaper than AK,OKW, or BWV is irrelevant. I dont care about the cost difference of 41,000 vs 48,000; I care about the cost difference of 41,000 vs 64,000.
What sets off alarm bells for me is the idea that OP projects going from 2 trips in 3 years to 3 trips per year for the next 10.
A couple people brought that up so heres the situation. My wife and I got married right out of college in 1999 and we spent the next 12 years focused on our careers. We took very few vacations in the early years and none later on (we took no vacations between 2004 and 2009; instead we used our vacation time to study for professional exams, visit business schools, that type of thing). In 2010 we took a vacation to WDW after I graduated from business school. In 2011 we used our vacation time to go to Korea to get our daughter (adoption) and stay home with her when we got back rather than going to work right away. We went to WDW with her on Columbus day weekend 2011 as a mini-vacation. In Feb 2012 we had a baby and used our vacation time to stay home with him after he was born. The reason we didnt take long WDW vacations in 2011 or 2012 is because we had no more vacation time to use after staying home with our babies.
The drastic change from few vacations in the past to 3 per year in the future is that from here on out we will have no more babies (so no need for paternity/maternity leave) and our careers are set (no more days off for career reasons) which means we can use our vacation time for...vacation (imagine that). We both work for the government so we have a ton of time off (5 weeks per year) and we make enough money (lets just say Obama thinks we're millionaires or billionaires even though we're a family of four living in a 900 sq ft apartment). So we have excess time off and excess cash and we are ready to start enjoying our life. Hence: 3 vacations to WDW per year until our kids start telling us they're bored of it, then well only do two vacations per year.