10-year cost of the 7 resorts - are BLT/VWL/BCV worth their much higher cost?

Discussion in 'Purchasing DVC' started by Jasonkat, Nov 15, 2012.

  1. bighoo93

    bighoo93 Mouseketeer

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    There is some risk to any kind of projection looking 50 years out. Honestly, even 10 years out. You really have to bake that in. There is no such thing as a free lunch, and your up front purchase is buying that risk in exchange for part of your cost savings.

    You actually can derive a purely objective financial value for DVC ownership by modeling costs and savings over a period of time and discounting to present value, etc. It doesn't really matter what that value is for my point, which is that while you can't know for sure what your DVC membership will sell for in 10 years, you do know that you will still have at least 2 decades of DVC benefits remaining (and more for longer-term contracts), so there will be at a minimum that value. This assumes that Disney and DVC are still going concerns and attractive destinations 10 years from now, which is something that I view as an exceedingly low risk proposition.

    As far as other determinants of value, well, we're in a pretty much crap economy right now. Nobody can promise you what it will look like precisely in 10 years, but historically we are sitting in the middle of a very low point, so looking again from a risk probability perspective, while possible, it is relatively unlikely to be worse in 10 years.
     
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  3. montrealdisneylovers

    montrealdisneylovers Mouseketeer

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    Growing up my parents took us to Disney frequently but we never stayed on property. My dream was to someday stay at the resort where the monorail runs through.

    Fast foward a number of years and we started taking our kids yearly to Disney. Yes, we stayed on property, usually the All Star Movie Resort. Then a couple of years ago, when our Canadian Dollar was finally on par with your American Dollar, I told my husband that it was time to try the Contemporary. We chose BLT because it was the newer building and fell in love with the place. We subsequently learned about DVC and that BLT was in fact a DVC property and purchased resale because we wanted to be sure that we could stay there anytime we chose. It also allowed us to lock it a portion of our future vacation dollars at par.

    Although we usually rent a car when in Florida (we do the beach thing after our Disney trip) we keep it parked when at BLT. We love riding the Monorail around the loop and enjoy walking over to the MK bus depot to hop on a bus to anywhere else on property. There is something to be said for that.

    We would be heartbroken if we had to go to Disney and look at BLT without being able to stay there.

    Our daughters,18 and 16 now, are avid Disney fans with MK being their favorite park. They are already talking of taking trips with their friends and any future children. My husband and I are looking forward to our retirement visits in the future.

    I believe our points will remain in our family for many years to come. In fact I believe we will have to add to them at some point although I plan to borrow from future years before I rush into that.

    If you know you really love a particular location, it is important to buy there. If you do not care then I guess cheapest would be the most logical way to go.
     
  4. DannysMom

    DannysMom DIS Veteran

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    I agree with the PP that said to start out with less points. When buying resale you can often find loaded contracts. That is, a contract with banked 2012 points, as well as all 2013 points. If you start out with a 200 or so point contract, that is loaded, you would have a few more trips under your belt, with more experience at DVC resorts, so garnering more info as to which resorts you prefer & if it would be worth a premium (to you) to stay there, before you ran out of points. Then if more points are needed you can shop with more confidence.

    Also be sure to check out the ROFR thread, to have an idea of what contracts are currently selling for.

    Sent from my iPad using DISBoards App, please excuse any typos or autocorrects!
     
  5. taaren

    taaren "There is more treasure in books than in all the p

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    I'll echo what somebody else mentioned ... there's always the possibility of smaller contracts with multiple resorts. If you really want MK, buy half the points you think you'll need at VWL/BLT. Stay there, see if its worth it. Tour SSR/AKV/OKW while there and see if you might want to do some of your other stays at one of those, then pick up a second contract at one of the cheaper ones.

    Particularly because you're considering multiple trips, you might not want to stay near the MK every trip. You might find you want to do your two long-weekend trips (Memorial Day and Labor Day) close to the MK, then do your week long trip in July someplace with a spectacular pool (BCV or AK?).
     
  6. GOOFY D

    GOOFY D DIS Veteran

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    I may have overlooked, but what views/rooms (other than 1BR villa) did you assume with each? Some of the price differential could be due to price of views (as there seems to be a pretty big point disparity in your calculations). There is so much that goes into the thought process. For instance, we would be fine with a standard view at BLT, but really have to have a savanah view if we go to AKV. That may close the point disparity.
     
  7. dvcterry

    dvcterry DIS Veteran

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    We have bought where we have wanted to own, but our calculations were a little different. We bought small and added on throughout the years. Then took into account the point reallocations for the times and size accomodations we needed. An example would be that you indicated you wanted to travel Memorial weekend. A one bedroom in Saratoga Springs May Dream Season for Memorial weekend is 36 points on a Fri-Sat. In 2008-2009 it was 50 points for Fri-Sat. There is a lot thought that has to go into this. Your home resort will have an 11 month booking advantage and the times you are looking to travel are also holiday weekends. If you do not plan that far out, then the larger resorts such as OKW and SSR generally will have rooms. Within BCV, BWV & BLT certain room categories will book earlier, thus the 11 month advantage comes into play. With all things considered there a number of things to consider beyond price.
     
  8. JimMIA

    JimMIA A little Miami humor...

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    I wonder if there isn't a fundamental error in these "points needed" calculations. It just doesn't seem rational that you'd pay $10 more per point AND pay higher dues and come out with a lower total cost.

    Since OKW tends to have the lowest points costs, are you using the lowest possible points for AKV?

    If so, you should know that there are only a very limited number of villas available at those prices.
     
  9. JimMIA

    JimMIA A little Miami humor...

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    In answer to your larger question, I have two thoughts.

    #1 - I agree with Tim that you should NOT buy where you would be disappointed to stay.

    Home resort matters in two ways. First, if you can reliably plan, book, and stick with your plans, more than seven months in advance -- you will enjoy up to a 4 month booking advantage at your home resort. If you can't do that, you will have zero advantage.

    Second, home resort matters in the financials, which is the only thing your analysis addresses.

    #2 - No, I don't think the additional expense is worth it for my family. We have successfully booked BCV at <5 months (and we consider SAB vastly overrated).

    OTOH, value for my family has little to do with value for your family. You have to decide for yourself whether it is worth the extra expense.

    *****
    One suggestion I would make -- and I think it's especially important considering your limited exposure to WDW and DVC -- RENT a reservation or two from a DVC owner to get a feel for the experience before you commit to such a large purchase.

    Another suggestion I would make is that you learn how DVC really works. In particular, look seriously at how banking and borrowing work, because you may well find that you don't really need +/- 400 points.

    Also seriously evaluate whether you would want to take FOUR trips to WDW every single year for the next ten years. If not, you can probably get by with far fewer points.
     
  10. Dean

    Dean DIS Veteran<br><a href="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis

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    Clearly it's a 30 year or more commitment, however, in my view one should view the entire up front purchase price as spent in the first 10 years. Buying with the idea of selling later is unrealistic both in terms of whatever assumptions you make or even that you can sell it then. There likely will be a market but there is no guarantee.

    IMO, any emotional benefit DVC has is only applicable IF buying in makes sense without the emotions.
     
  11. DVCanadian

    DVCanadian Earning My Ears

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    I agree that the calculations don't look right.
    I think the OP should use $50 per point for Saratoga springs, not $60.
    If you check the ROFR thread you will find it is a realistic target for what you want to buy.

    I have a hard time believing that you need more than a 100 more points SSR vs AK.
     
  12. crisi

    crisi DIS Veteran

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    I agree with ten as the calculation horizon. If you can make the money work within ten years, with no planned resale value, its a good financial risk. If you sell after ten and make some money - or if it continues to work for another 35 years for your family - that's all gravy.

    But financial sense is just one component. DVC is a luxury purchase. Vacations at Disney are a luxury. If you can afford to buy direct at BLT and doing that RIGHT NOW is worth the money, the financial calculations aren't important. If BCV delights you and you don't care about more years for less money at SSR, buy BCV. The "if you can afford it" is important, but once you can afford it, it doesn't make much difference if you buy your happiness through a direct Grand Floridian Villas purchase or a closet of Jimmy Choo shoes.
     
  13. tjkraz

    tjkraz <img src="http://www.wdwinfo.com/images/silver.jpg

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    In and of itself, I don't disagree with the 10 year figure. What sets off alarm bells for me is the idea that OP projects going from 2 trips in 3 years to 3 trips per year for the next 10.
     
  14. ldo

    ldo DIS Veteran

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    my advice to new purchasers: decide how many points you need for your trip plans for 1 year and then cut that # in 1/2 and buy for every other year--and, if you can, buy when you can get the prior year's points as well--such as UY of June (buy thru May to get the prior UY points). Then with banking and borrowing, you can actually get annual vacations for the next 2 years, if you strategize. That is enough time to decide if you want a bigger commitment to DVC and whether the home resort you picked is working out for you--or if you want to get a different home resort if you are adding more points--as long as your contract has the same UY, you can list all under the same master contract.
    also, as kids get older, vacation habits can change. EOY give the flex to do other things without feeling you "have" to use your DVc points.
     
  15. cjaime12

    cjaime12 Earning My Ears

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    I own at BLT and SSR, and I purchased all my points through DVC. We love BLT, fireworks on the roof is awesome, monorail, and view of MK is great. So, we wanted to add more points at BLT, but it is too expensive to buy at today's price point from DVC. So, we are adding on by buying resale. You can save a good amount of money by buying resale.

    I suggest, if you know you want BLT to be your home resort, buy resale. FYI, resale purchases can not be used for cruises. But, all DVC resorts are fare game if you purchase resale.

    I have a hard time telling people to buy DVC at today's price point. But, if you are going to buy from DVC directly I would buy the most affordable home resort and try out for few years. This way you can try different resorts. After, trying different resorts, now you can make a good decision about spending that extra money on a resort like BLT. Hope this was helpful.
     
  16. crisi

    crisi DIS Veteran

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    THAT does set off alarms.

    Getting three trips a year to Disney when your kids are young seems doable. But a three year old will be thirteen in ten years, and three trips a year to WDW with a thirteen year old isn't so doable - unless you live close. The moment kids hit schoolage, their lives get so busy and unless you homeschool, outside of your control.
     
  17. Jasonkat

    Jasonkat Mouseketeer

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    Thanks for all the replies, its been very informative.

    My professional career is in the finance/accounting field. Part of the training in this area of study is learning how to value future cash flows. In my years of classes in finance Ive learned that emphasis needs to be put on the immediate future because the long term future is unknowable. If you were going to ask me to value a share of Apple stock Id put the most emphasis on what I think Apple will do the next five or ten years, not what they will do 25 years from now.

    So for DVC its the same thing, Im using the immediate and predictable future rather than the unpredictable long term future. If DVC is a good buy (or in this case buying resort A over resort B is a good decision) for the next ten years then I can assume it will be even better after 10 years.

    If you need 340 pts for X days at AKV and 440 points for X days at SSR then you could pay more per point for AKV up front and for dues and still cost less because you need 20% fewer points. (5.44 X 340 < 4.73 X 440)

    I got the points from DVC news.com and I took the lowest points needed for a one bedroom

    Heres my math on how I came up with the point totals needed

    Resort Memorial Day; Summer; Labor Day; total
    Animal Kingdom 26*2+23 ; 188; 26*2+19; 334
    Old Key West 32*2+27; 222; 32*2+21; 398
    Boardwalk Villas 33*2+28 ; 220; 33*2+20; 400
    Saratoga Springs 36*2+31; 241; 36*2+24 ; 440
    Bay Lake Tower 40*2+34 ; 268; 40*2+26; 488
    Beach Club 40*2+35 ; 269 ; 40*2+27; 491
    Wilderness Lodge 40*2+35; 271; 40*2+28; 494


    The price per point was estimated from fidelity and time share store current for-sale listings. While my price point may not be perfect I believe my final result is accurate: that BLT, WLV and BCV cost significantly more over ten years than AKV, BWV, OKW, and SSR for the same vacation time at Disneyworld. So Im trying to figure out if its worth the added cost. If I use $50 for SSR rather than $60 it wont change my result: SSR will still be cheaper over 10 years than BLT/BCV/VWL. Whether SSR is cheaper than AK,OKW, or BWV is irrelevant. I dont care about the cost difference of 41,000 vs 48,000; I care about the cost difference of 41,000 vs 64,000.

    A couple people brought that up so heres the situation. My wife and I got married right out of college in 1999 and we spent the next 12 years focused on our careers. We took very few vacations in the early years and none later on (we took no vacations between 2004 and 2009; instead we used our vacation time to study for professional exams, visit business schools, that type of thing). In 2010 we took a vacation to WDW after I graduated from business school. In 2011 we used our vacation time to go to Korea to get our daughter (adoption) and stay home with her when we got back rather than going to work right away. We went to WDW with her on Columbus day weekend 2011 as a mini-vacation. In Feb 2012 we had a baby and used our vacation time to stay home with him after he was born. The reason we didnt take long WDW vacations in 2011 or 2012 is because we had no more vacation time to use after staying home with our babies.

    The drastic change from few vacations in the past to 3 per year in the future is that from here on out we will have no more babies (so no need for paternity/maternity leave) and our careers are set (no more days off for career reasons) which means we can use our vacation time for...vacation (imagine that). We both work for the government so we have a ton of time off (5 weeks per year) and we make enough money (lets just say Obama thinks we're millionaires or billionaires even though we're a family of four living in a 900 sq ft apartment). So we have excess time off and excess cash and we are ready to start enjoying our life. Hence: 3 vacations to WDW per year until our kids start telling us they're bored of it, then well only do two vacations per year.
     
  18. Dean

    Dean DIS Veteran<br><a href="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis

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    I think using 10 years is fine and actually preferable, but equating it to a stock and investment is not. IMO, you need to look at it for 10 years as it the resort closed and you had nothing. The idea that DVC will be an even better option 10 years from now is overly optimistic. Also using specialty views like standard at BWV or value at AKV is not realistic unless you reserve at 11 months out which means you have to own there. Plus, as I pointed out before, the 1 BR returns the lowest value on a $$$ basis of all DVC options and is often more expensive than just paying cash. It seems you're caught up in the emotions at this point planning the trips you are with so little background. I'd suggest you slow down, buy less and give DVC a try. There are always options to supplement your points and you can buy more later if it does work out. Plus, as someone else noted, you likely won't continue these trips as planned as the kids are older with activities and other interests.
     
  19. Jasonkat

    Jasonkat Mouseketeer

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    As I said up front: my calculations were based on apples-to-apples for all the resorts. So I choose the middle option (one bedroom is the middle option of the studio-one bedroom-2 bedroom choices) and the lowest point in that category and I assumed that I would only stay at that one resort forever. So maybe 1 br returns the lowest value but I don't care about that, I only care about how the 7 resorts relate to each other vis-a-vis 10-year cost (hence, the title of the thread). I could've chosen the most expensive studio at each resort or the middle value 2 bedroom at each resort and I'd probably have a fairly similar result (BLT/VWL/BCV are all more expensive over ten years than AKL/OKW/SSR/BWV).
     
  20. Dean

    Dean DIS Veteran<br><a href="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis

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    The price difference compared reasonably between BWV, BCV & VWL should be minimal because you have do ignore the standard view unless you buy there and reserve that option consistently at or near 11 months out, same for value at AKV or standard at BLT. The other difference is the intrinsic value at 10 years if you did decide to sell will be different. The 2042 resorts will be less than the rest of the on property resorts. BLT is ameliorated a little because of the lower dues though I don't think the difference will remain as great as it has been but the dues should continue to be favorable to the rest. IMO, only comparing the resorts to each other bypasses the most important question, whether buying at all makes sense for you. I don't believe it does at this point from what I've seen so far. From a cost/value/usage standpoint, SSR will be the cheapest overall if you give any value to the difference in expiration and you really should at least some. I'd count the buy in costs only to 10 years but the value estimated AT 10 years personally. I think you'll be a lot better off going more slowly and either waiting to buy in or buying less and trying it out a few trips.
     
  21. ELMC

    ELMC DIS Veteran

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    I think you might feel that people are arguing with you, doubting your sincerity, or trying to nitpick the information you have provided. Please know that that's not the case. Many posters on this thread have been here a long time. They've been going to Disney for a long time. They've seen and heard just about everything. The reason why they are challenging you is because you are not the first person to post the things that you have posted and, in similar situations in the past, it did not work out. That's not to say that you won't all of a sudden become a huge Disney person or that you won't vacation there three times a year. You might, and that would be great. But that's something that's a little hard to predict. Analysis is great, but at some point it needs to move from the theoretical to the practical. You can still go to Disney three times a year even if you don't buy DVC, so it might be good to get more experience before making such a large commitment. Good luck with whatever you decide.
     

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