Price Analysis of Current DVC Resale Listings

DVC Doctor · Aug 25, 2015

jnjhuddle said:
The prices you list are all either spot on or within $4 of the AVERAGE current LIST prices of all open listings which you can find on that awesome dvc search engine.

I went to that site and will post a slightly updated chart as you are correct, my numbers are close to the actual price. It is difficult to get an exact price as same resort loaded vs stripped contracts are not the same values and small contracts are more expensive than larger ones.

RobbW said:
Sorry, DVC Doctor, I wasn't trying to start an argument or anything, and I wasn't insisting your prices were wrong. Just merely pointing out the difference in prices based on the source. I was trying to add some additional info by showing the actual agreed-upon contract prices vs. current asking prices. After all, market value isn't what someone is asking for their contract, but rather what a buyer agrees to pay for said contract.

I agree with jnjhuddle that the ROFR thread isn't just experienced DVC buyers who want to brag about the great deal they got. There are plenty of first-time buyers posting on there, myself included.

No worries, I did not take offense. But remember that the info based on past sales is valuable, but is not reflective to the exact market conditions happening now. For whatever reason, the DVC resale market is rapidly rising over the past few months and people need to know that current prices are definitely higher than past closed sales.

DVC Doctor · Aug 25, 2015

Here is a new breakdown using that other site's data for "average prices" of DVC resorts.

I feel there are 4 clusters of levels of DVC resort - Disney, Highest price, Upper price, Mid price, Low price.

This is not to state that buying VB is a bargain as their annual dues will erode any savings on the purchase, but if you buy VB and use it and sell it in 4 years, that is probably a very good way to join DVC IF you have a SHORT time frame for ownership. Of course, if you really want to buy a beach resort, this is a bargain.

If you are looking for the best value - I think SSR wins that contest hands down

I personally think BLT is a better value than VGF, but totally understand why it is priced more and that trend should hold.

I am surprised BC and BWV are priced so high and would EXPECT them to DROP in price as this may be a bubble, especially BWV, but that is only my opinion.

I think HHI and VB will always be the cheapest options, but if the prices drop any lower, this could be a way for people to join DVC for a few years and jump out. Think about that - why buy Poly at $165 when you can buy VB for under $50. Sure the dues is $8pp, but that is only $2 more than Poly and it would take about 57 years to catch up.

Polynesian $165 (direct from Disney)

Grand Californian $151.79
Grand Floridian $147.25
Bay Lake Towers $124.51

Aulani $109.90
Beach Club Villas $105.61
Boardwalk Villas $97.21

Saratoga Springs $85.55
Animal Kingdom Villas $83.76
Wilderness Lodge $82.00
Old Key West $78.00

Hilton Head $63.91
Vero Beach $50.82

suebeelin · Aug 25, 2015

BWV can be sold for $85-95 now??? That's insane.

I wish i could sell mine but I'm planning trips even through the end of 2016, so can't right now.

Thankfully I bought BLT just before the price increase-- points loaded in February. Very lucky.

DVC Doctor · Aug 26, 2015

Here are some of my OPINIONS on "fair" valuations for buying DVC resale contracts

VGC and VGF around $140 and I expect that these will ALWAYS have strong demand and can easily be sold.

BLT around $120 and I expect this to hold in value and may go up. It will have above average demand due to the location.

Aulani around $100 and I have little opinions here as this is the only DVC that I have not stayed at. I think it may go down in price to the $80-90 range as this is a remote and difficult and expensive location to get to for most people.

I personally think BC and BW are currently overvalued and could drop in price, but that is only my opinion. I can't recommend buying BC and BW at $100 as I personally think they are only worth around $80, but obviously the current market supports the higher prices and people love those location (me too, but not at $100pp)

I think SSR is the BEST BUY for resales and if you can get it below $80 then you are getting a great value and anything close to $70 is a home run

I personally think AKV is worth $10 less than SSR due to the higher dues, but again this is MY opinion and I would not pay more than $70 for AK

I think WL may be UNDERVALUED and anything around $80 appears to be a good price, if they make the cabins here, the prices could go up

I think OKW is worth less than $70 and think it is a good value if you can get one for $60-65pp. I would definitely recommend SSR over OKW at the current prices and think OKW should be about $15 less than SSR, but the market thinks the difference should be around $7, so one of us is wrong.

I think HHI and especially VB can be bought for $10 less than the above prices and is a pretty good value if you like those locations. I would like to see HHI around $50 and VB around $40 and think those would be very good buys. My apologies to HHI and VB owners, but that's all I think they are worth.

freediverdude · Aug 26, 2015

I think if someone is looking to purchase for only 4 years and then sell, then I would say why bother buying. Just rent for 4 trips and be done or pay cash for 4 yearly trips and no obligation, easier rules for cancelling, no calculating points, etc.

Popouri DVC · Aug 27, 2015

I have to say that I really am appreciative of all the information presented in this thread and have found this reading fascinating.

DVC membership is meant to be long term. I cannot imagine what prices may be in 10 years, let alone 20 and beyond...

DVC Doctor · Aug 27, 2015

Popouri DVC said:
I have to say that I really am appreciative of all the information presented in this thread and have found this reading fascinating.

DVC membership is meant to be long term. I cannot imagine what prices may be in 10 years, let alone 20 and beyond...

Thanks. I have been following the resale market for a long time and have bought many new and resale contracts. The above price estimates are my OWN opinions and they obviously can change.

The good news is that anyone that bought DVC really did make a good purchase as it holds its value better than any other timeshare.

RobbW · Aug 27, 2015

DVC Doctor said:
No worries, I did not take offense. But remember that the info based on past sales is valuable, but is not reflective to the exact market conditions happening now. For whatever reason, the DVC resale market is rapidly rising over the past few months and people need to know that current prices are definitely higher than past closed sales.

Cool, thanks, DVC Doctor. Let me know if you ever want to collude on our data. You seem to be concentrating more on current market value of DVC ownership. My data is mostly geared towards contract prices and the time it takes to get through the purchase process. Let me know if I can ever provide anything useful for you!

DVC Doctor · Aug 27, 2015

RobbW said:
Cool, thanks, DVC Doctor. Let me know if you ever want to collude on our data. You seem to be concentrating more on current market value of DVC ownership. My data is mostly geared towards contract prices and the time it takes to get through the purchase process. Let me know if I can ever provide anything useful for you!

I appreciate your offer, but I only created this thread to reflect my own observations, interpretation, and opinion of the current market. In the past, the prices were pretty low so there were tons of great deals, however it seems that those days are gone. I am not saying that there are not fair deals now, I am just saying the super low incredible bargain deals appear to have dissipated and that is not such a bad thing. I also APPRECIATE your and other DIS members in posting their data and that is also another reason I compiled this report as this is a sharing webisite.

Another thing I noticed is the outrageously long process it is now taking to buy, get approved, close, and get into the DVC system as compared to in the past. In the past you go go from start to finish in under 60 days and now it seems it is taking 90-120 days and I personally think that is Disney's plan and it is being done on purpose, but then again, it is not such a bad thing unless you are buying a contract with expiring points.

Granny · Aug 28, 2015

DVC Doctor said:
*** This is amazing as most timeshares drop 50-75% in value ***

It really is amazing.

I would estimate anyone that bought BC or BW is also in a good position if they sell and will probably make 20-30% profit. WL is closing fast as there is no inventory and owners are probably sitting on a 15-20% profit. I would be VERY concerned about the shorter RTU expiration date at these resorts in terms of future value.

VWL is the big mystery here as this is the first time Disney will be expanding an existing 2042 DVC resort. I would think that many people on the fence about buying VWL resale want to know Disney's plans for the resort. Will they try to "force" a contract extension on existing contracts to line up with new point sales generated by the expansion? I think VWL pricing will be in a bit of a flux until Disney announces new point pricing and old contract plans.

DVC Doctor · Aug 30, 2015

Granny said:
VWL is the big mystery here as this is the first time Disney will be expanding an existing 2042 DVC resort. I would think that many people on the fence about buying VWL resale want to know Disney's plans for the resort. Will they try to "force" a contract extension on existing contracts to line up with new point sales generated by the expansion? I think VWL pricing will be in a bit of a flux until Disney announces new point pricing and old contract plans.

Disney does not have a good success at forcing people to buy an extension (i.e. OKW)

If and when WVL is built, it will probably sell for $180-200 point so by those rates, today's prices seem like a bargain.

DVC Doctor · Sep 1, 2015

It is interesting that many of the contracts listed for sale that have banked points are "pending" as obviously those are more in demand.

I am amazed to see so many stripped contracts for sale and I wonder if people are simply listing to see if they get a bite or if they really want to sell.

mac_tlc · Sep 3, 2015

Based on your values, if we sold our OKW points, we would be up almost 50%, and our BLT points would be up 25%. Decent returns, plus we have had over 20 years of amazing experiences and memories for our kids to grow up with. We didn't buy it for profit, and have no intention to sell.

mac_tlc

DVC Doctor · Sep 4, 2015

mac_tlc said:
Based on your values, if we sold our OKW points, we would be up almost 50%, and our BLT points would be up 25%. Decent returns, plus we have had over 20 years of amazing experiences and memories for our kids to grow up with. We didn't buy it for profit, and have no intention to sell.

mac_tlc

I am happy that you had such a great experience with this "investment" and this is starting to remind me of the stock market during a huge gain that people only think the price will go up and never consider selling at the top and when there is a correction will say that they will sell only if it hits the previous high mark, but of course they forget that they said that until there is another correction. This is starting to feel like a ride on the Tower of Terror" where there are sudden and unexpected drops.

DVC Doctor · Sep 7, 2015

DVC Doctor said:
Here is a new breakdown using that other site's data for "average prices" of DVC resorts.

Polynesian $165 (direct from Disney)

Grand Californian $151.79
Grand Floridian $147.25
Bay Lake Towers $124.51

Aulani $109.90
Beach Club Villas $105.61
Boardwalk Villas $97.21

Saratoga Springs $85.55
Animal Kingdom Villas $83.76
Wilderness Lodge $82.00
Old Key West $78.00

Hilton Head $63.91
Vero Beach $50.82

Based on the LOW to nonexistant VWL inventory, I think VWL will sell for $90-95pp TODAY, thus they are moving UP in the resale price ranking.

disneymom620 · Sep 8, 2015

This is a very insightful thread. I closed on an AKV contract in January for 160 pts at $74 and have been perusing the resale sites lately to see what is out there and thought everything seemed to have gone up considerably. Would love to purchase at one of the Epcot or Monorail resorts, but I think if and when the time comes to add on it's going to be SSR.

Joebronx3 · Sep 8, 2015

This is a great thread. Helps give an idea of what each resort is selling for lately. Prices have definitely gone up since I was browsing back in the winter.

mickeyman · Sep 11, 2015

I'm currently in

disneymom620 said:
This is a very insightful thread. I closed on an AKV contract in January for 160 pts at $74 and have been perusing the resale sites lately to see what is out there and thought everything seemed to have gone up considerably. Would love to purchase at one of the Epcot or Monorail resorts, but I think if and when the time comes to add on it's going to be SSR.

I'm currently in ROFR from Disney on a 160 point contract for AKV for $75 per point. Glad yours went through so mine should too

DVC Doctor · Sep 11, 2015

mickeyman said:
I'm currently in ROFR from Disney on a 160 point contract for AKV for $75 per point. Glad yours went through so mine should too

Gee....what nice DIS member helped you locate that bargain??? :earsboy:

SWofDisorder · Sep 12, 2015

I was just considering selling and wanted to know what is fair value for 25 point contract at SSR? I also hold 190 points at OKW with points banked into 2016.

Price Analysis of Current DVC Resale Listings

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