Price Analysis of Current DVC Resale Listings

[DVC Doctor]

Based on the recent uptick in resale prices, here is a rough estimate of typical DVC resale prices according my review of the marketplace (as of August 23, 2015) and some of my personal comments below.

Note that these prices do fluctuate and depend on loaded vs stripped contracts and the size of the contract. Loaded contracts (with current and often banked points) usually sell for $10 more than average and stripped contracts (with zero current points and no points for next year) sell for $10 less than average. The small contracts (25-50) points sell very fast and for the highest prices. Average contracts are around 150 points. The very large contracts 300-500 sell for about $10 or so less than average and the mega 500-1,000 points contracts sell for the lowest price of all and are the hardest to sell.

VGC around $150
VGF around $150
BLT around $125
BC around $100
BW around $95
WL around $85
AK around $85
SSR around $85
OKW around $75
HH around $60
VB around $50

The following is my educated guesses regarding valuations based on the current prices and ignoring any intangible value such as using it for vacations (which is really the most important thing)

*** This is amazing as most timeshares drop 50-75% in value ***

I would say that anyone that bought VGC probably made the BEST deal of any DVC member as they will have about a 40% profit if they sell - congrats, you win! I would expect to see prices stabilize and even rise here. I doubt they will come down due to the high demand. If I could go back in time, this is the resort I wish I bought into.

VGF appears to be a solid choice as the prices are holding firm and anyone that bought direct from Disney is probably at break-even. I have no idea how the fixed weeks are fairing in terms of resale value though. I would EXPECT to see VGF prices rise, especially for smaller <100 point contracts in the next few years as this is a small resort that is hard to book. Again, anyone that bought here made a wise purchase so far.

BLT owners are probably at a 5-10% profit and I EXPECT to see these prices also rise due to the fact that poly has no 1 or 2 or 3 bedroom units and this is so close to the MK. I think the prices will be below VGF, but above where we are now. Yes, it is still a good time to buy here.

I would estimate anyone that bought BC or BW is also in a good position if they sell and will probably make 20-30% profit. WL is closing fast as there is no inventory and owners are probably sitting on a 15-20% profit. I would be VERY concerned about the shorter RTU expiration date at these resorts in terms of future value. However people really love the locations here and F&W is very popular. I am a little surprised that BC and BWV sell for more than SSR and AK, but that appears to be a result of the smaller size of BC and location of BW, but as these two resorts get older, I would expect to see them selling for less than SSR and AK.

AK owners are probably still at a 10% loss now and I am scratching my head to understand why and I think it boils down to the HIGH annual dues at this resort combined with the LARGE massive amount of rooms here. It is relatively easy to book at 7 months, so there is no killer need to buy here. I see many people buy SSR and book here cheaper than buying here and staying here.

SSR owners can finally breath easy as they are probably at close to break even now and the Treehouse Villas have been a great addition. I still think they overbuilt this place, but with the new Disney Springs, this place will no longer be considered the ugly sister of DVC members. In fact, this is probably the BEST BUY of any DVC resort in pure terms of cost.

OKW owners are probably very happy as they had many years of vacations and they can sell for more than they paid by about 10-15%. I wish I bought here in 1990 and had those 10 years of free passes. I also think this is the best bang for your DVC point in terms of booking rooms (i.e. best value). I personally think people shuld buy SSR over OKW because the prices are about the same now and you get lower dues and extra 13 or so years of life with SSR. I am not sure when OKW will plateau or start to drop in price, but I think resale prices will be stable for another 10 years.

I would say that anyone that bought VB has made the worst deal as they are probable at a loss if they sell and probably the same for HHI owners. Sorry, this has not been a great financial investment in terms of resale values, but you got to enjoy great beach vacations.

*** Summary - I still recommend buying where you want to stay, but if you are flexible and like to try new places, then you really need to consider the cost, annual dues, and future demand and values. There is usually no wrong DVC purchase as most DVC members do NOT lose money if they buy correctly and use it without wasting points and do not sell for 3-5 years. ***

 

[DVCcurious]

The closer you are to a park, the more valuable the DVC resort.

I'm amazed prices continue to go up. I added on at BLT for a 250 pt contract last October and paid $105 for loaded contract and didn't think it was a good deal. In hindsight it was a pretty good deal.

But not like back in 2012! If I knew then what I know now I would've gotten a second mortgage and used the cash to buy up all the BWVs and SSRs at $52 per point!

 

[DVC Doctor]

I did not include the Poly as it is too early to tell how this resort will do in terms of future resale value. But if VGF and BLT are a guide, the best strategy is to buy NOW when prices are early in the sales cycle as in a year or two when they approach sellout, the price will probably be near or at $200pp and it will take a much longer time to break even if you need to sell before the 50 year expiration date.

VGF will always be more in demand (thus it is a better buy) than the Poly as there are not that many rooms and they offer 1-2-3 bedroom options.

 

[bwbuddy5]

Wow, I sure hope you're retired, that's a lot of stuff. I'm guessing most buyers don't buy intending to sale, but rather to assure themselves of top notch accommodations without paying rack rates. Plus, with groups like David's around, it appears unused points can almost always be rented. I bought BW in 1998 and sold for a 50% profit in 2009, but didn't really want to, had to pay for daughter's wedding.

I recently bought under $80 at AK, because my grandkids love animals, they think it's the coolest thing ever, and since we're stuck with traveling in summer months, I was worried about not getting it at the 7 month window. That made it worth it to me.

 

[jani3]

Based on the recent uptick in resale prices, here is a rough estimate of typical DVC resale prices according my review of the marketplace (as of August 23, 2015) and some of my personal comments below.

Note that these prices do fluctuate and depend on loaded vs stripped contracts and the size of the contract. Loaded contracts (with current and often banked points) usually sell for $10 more than average and stripped contracts (with zero current points and no points for next year) sell for $10 less than average. The small contracts (25-50) points sell very fast and for the highest prices. Average contracts are around 150 points. The very large contracts 300-500 sell for about $10 or so less than average and the mega 500-1,000 points contracts sell for the lowest price of all and are the hardest to sell.

VGC around $150
VGF around $150
BLT around $125
BC around $100
BW around $95
WL around $85
AK around $85
SSR around $85
OKW around $75
HH around $60
VB around $50

The following is my educated guesses regarding valuations based on the current prices and ignoring any intangible value such as using it for vacations (which is really the most important thing)

*** This is amazing as most timeshares drop 50-75% in value ***

I would say that anyone that bought VGC probably made the BEST deal of any DVC member as they will have about a 40% profit if they sell - congrats, you win! I would expect to see prices stabilize and even rise here. I doubt they will come down due to the high demand. If I could go back in time, this is the resort I wish I bought into.

VGF appears to be a solid choice as the prices are holding firm and anyone that bought direct from Disney is probably at break-even. I have no idea how the fixed weeks are fairing in terms of resale value though. I would EXPECT to see VGF prices rise, especially for smaller <100 point contracts in the next few years as this is a small resort that is hard to book. Again, anyone that bought here made a wise purchase so far.

BLT owners are probably at a 5-10% profit and I EXPECT to see these prices also rise due to the fact that poly has no 1 or 2 or 3 bedroom units and this is so close to the MK. I think the prices will be below VGF, but above where we are now. Yes, it is still a good time to buy here.

I would estimate anyone that bought BC or BW is also in a good position if they sell and will probably make 20-30% profit. WL is closing fast as there is no inventory and owners are probably sitting on a 15-20% profit. I would be VERY concerned about the shorter RTU expiration date at these resorts in terms of future value. However people really love the locations here and F&W is very popular. I am a little surprised that BC and BWV sell for more than SSR and AK, but that appears to be a result of the smaller size of BC and location of BW, but as these two resorts get older, I would expect to see them selling for less than SSR and AK.

AK owners are probably still at a 10% loss now and I am scratching my head to understand why and I think it boils down to the HIGH annual dues at this resort combined with the LARGE massive amount of rooms here. It is relatively easy to book at 7 months, so there is no killer need to buy here. I see many people buy SSR and book here cheaper than buying here and staying here.

SSR owners can finally breath easy as they are probably at close to break even now and the Treehouse Villas have been a great addition. I still think they overbuilt this place, but with the new Disney Springs, this place will no longer be considered the ugly sister of DVC members. In fact, this is probably the BEST BUY of any DVC resort in pure terms of cost.

OKW owners are probably very happy as they had many years of vacations and they can sell for more than they paid by about 10-15%. I wish I bought here in 1990 and had those 10 years of free passes. I also think this is the best bang for your DVC point in terms of booking rooms (i.e. best value). I personally think people shuld buy SSR over OKW because the prices are about the same now and you get lower dues and extra 13 or so years of life with SSR. I am not sure when OKW will plateau or start to drop in price, but I think resale prices will be stable for another 10 years.

I would say that anyone that bought VB has made the worst deal as they are probable at a loss if they sell and probably the same for HHI owners. Sorry, this has not been a great financial investment in terms of resale values, but you got to enjoy great beach vacations.

*** Summary - I still recommend buying where you want to stay, but if you are flexible and like to try new places, then you really need to consider the cost, annual dues, and future demand and values. There is usually no wrong DVC purchase as most DVC members do NOT lose money if they buy correctly and use it without wasting points and do not sell for 3-5 years. ***

This is very insightful especially for me, someone still waiting for the right resale to come into the market so I'm still reading as much as I can. Any thoughts on aulani?

 

[DVC Doctor]

Wow, I sure hope you're retired, that's a lot of stuff. I'm guessing most buyers don't buy intending to sale, but rather to assure themselves of top notch accommodations without paying rack rates. Plus, with groups like David's around, it appears unused points can almost always be rented. I bought BW in 1998 and sold for a 50% profit in 2009, but didn't really want to, had to pay for daughter's wedding.

I recently bought under $80 at AK, because my grandkids love animals, they think it's the coolest thing ever, and since we're stuck with traveling in summer months, I was worried about not getting it at the 7 month window. That made it worth it to me.

I am not retired and do not own at all those resorts. I only did an analysis of the current offerings.

This is very insightful especially for me, someone still waiting for the right resale to come into the market so I'm still reading as much as I can. Any thoughts on aulani?

I would AVOID buying Aulani unless you want to go there at least once every three years as the dues in the future will be high like VB. The prices are in the $100-110 range and most people are at break even or a slight loss if they are selling. One important advice is to buy a "Subsized" contract if you can as they have lower dues locked in as in the long run this is the most costly expense.

 

[bwbuddy5]

DVC Doctor, I'm guessing that Disney's ROFR falls in line with your analysis - the resorts where you don't recommend buying are the same ones that Disney won't buy back?

I'm also guessing 90% of DVC buyers don't care (at least when they are buying) what their purchase will sell for in the future, most of them just want to buy what they want to buy, and then I would encourage them not to second guess themselves. Enjoy!

 

[DVC Doctor]

DVC Doctor, I'm guessing that Disney's ROFR falls in line with your analysis - the resorts where you don't recommend buying are the same ones that Disney won't buy back?

I'm also guessing 90% of DVC buyers don't care (at least when they are buying) what their purchase will sell for in the future, most of them just want to buy what they want to buy, and then I would encourage them not to second guess themselves. Enjoy!

I don't follow ROFR that closely as there is no scientific reasoning behind it as far as I can tell. Disney sometimes buys a higher priced contract and many times lets cheaper ones get by. I really don't know the formula they use.

On days like today - Stock Market is in the midst of a meltdown - spending $15,000 to $25,000 on a DVC contract is an INVESTMENT (at least it is for me) and although the primary reason to buy is discounted accommodations at Disney for a hedge against rising rates, I also like to know that I made a good decision to buy or not.

Compared to other timeshares - DVC is the gold standard for holding value and I am happy with that. With so many choices of home resorts, size of contract, use year, and resale vs developer sales, there are going to be some smarter and less smart decisions that members make.

For example, I personally think it would be a mistake to buy Aulani if you only want to stay at WDW resorts, just like it would be a mistake to buy Poly if you want to stay at HHI.

Rule #1 - buy where you want to stay. However, DVC membership is a LONG time, so future needs can and will change.

I personally think that most DVC members made a good decision to buy, no matter the resort, as long as they use it for at least 5 years. Sure some members like VGC can sell for a profit while others may sell for a loss, but if you are not selling, then who cares. Also, I think the annual dues is a more significant expense over the long time. the people that lose money are the members that put 10% down and then finance at 14% and then sell in a few years.

 

[bwbuddy5]

I agree with everything you've said. I'm a Finance Director, and family and friends constantly poke fun at me at how tight I am. But, I also like to splurge and enjoy my vacation. But even given that, I know that DVC saves me money vs. trying to get comparable accommodations (considering room quality, location, and amenities) through another method. To me, that makes it worth it, financial and otherwise -- and there's nothing like watching family and friends' jaws drop when they walk into a DVC villa with me, especially when they compare it to what they've paid for much lesser accommodations.

Your analysis is great, thank you for that.

 

[RobbW]

Based on the recent uptick in resale prices, here is a rough estimate of typical DVC resale prices according my review of the marketplace (as of August 23, 2015) and some of my personal comments below.

VGC around $150
VGF around $150
BLT around $125
BC around $100
BW around $95
WL around $85
AK around $85
SSR around $85
OKW around $75
HH around $60
VB around $50

My analysis is close to yours but slightly different. My average PPT is based only on those contracts in the current "ROFR 2015 July-December" thread that have at least made it to the ROFR decision by Disney (regardless of whether the contracts passed or were ROFR'ed). Out of 53 contracts that have made it thus far, the average PPT by resort is:

VGC around $129.29
VGF around $135.26
BLT around $114.06
BC around $101.42
BW around $84.84
WL around $80.00
AK around $80.28
SSR around $78.51
OKW around $71.02
HH around N/A
VB around $46.00

Of those contracts that were ROFR'ed by Disney, the averages were:

BW around $83.25
SSR around $82.18
OKW around $69.09

 

[zavandor]

SSR around $78.51

WoW, this thread made me happy, as I've payd $50 and $58 (both almost fully loaded) for my contracts. I don't plan to sell anytime soon, but I'm glad I bought when I did.

 

[RobbW]

Yeah, really wish my wife and I had bought back when we originally started looking a couple years ago. We've been seriously considering DVC on and off over the past couple years, but always found a reason to delay. Now prices are much higher than when we originally started looking. Oh well. At least we're finally buying now before they go higher.

 

[DVC Doctor]

My analysis is close to yours but slightly different. My average PPT is based only on those contracts in the current "ROFR 2015 July-December" thread that have at least made it to the ROFR decision by Disney (regardless of whether the contracts passed or were ROFR'ed). Out of 53 contracts that have made it thus far, the average PPT by resort is:

VGC around $129.29
VGF around $135.26
BLT around $114.06
BC around $101.42
BW around $84.84
WL around $80.00
AK around $80.28
SSR around $78.51
OKW around $71.02
HH around N/A
VB around $46.00

You are basing your data on the Past sales (3-6 months old) and my data is current for the present (as of this week) and prices now are about $5 per point higher than a few months ago. But your numbers for VGC and VGF are a definitely low as those prices have spiked $10-$15pp over the past few months.

Also, loaded contracts and smaller point contracts are worth more than stripped and large contracts.

 

[RobbW]

You are basing your data on the Past sales (3-6 months old) and my data is current for the present (as of this week) and prices now are about $5 per point higher than a few months ago. But your numbers for VGC and VGF are a definitely low as those prices have spiked $10-$15pp over the past few months.

Also, loaded contracts and smaller point contracts are worth more than stripped and large contracts.

I totally agree. Recent listings have definitely skyrocketed! However, your numbers are also based solely on current asking prices whereas my numbers are based on agreed-upon contract prices. Your numbers can and will change in negotiations. My numbers, while older, are set!

 

[dsnydaddy]

DVC Doctor,

Your research closely resembles my own thumbnail guesstimates. I like your analysis. It all seems spot on. Looks to me that you compared current sales prices to original DVC release price. I've been comparing the recent resale price to resale prices when I bought which was last October. In that short time I've seen a major jump in resale prices. On particular properties and not others.

BLT has jumped from around $95 to its current $125. That's a massive jump in under a year. Like you I blame the Poly and VGF for it popularity.
SSR and OKW have both taken a jump of about $10 a point in that time period. And while I know that others differ from me, I do think that Disney Springs is bringing new interest in these properties. Besides like you said, SSR is the best value in the DVC portfolio.
BCV, BWV Have only seen a modest bump in their resale value. They are popular properties and they will always hold their value. The excitement in the other properties is floating this boat as well.
AKV is interestingly very little changed over the last 10 months. But then again there really is no new draw the bring buyers in.
VWL has got me curious because its price hasn't jumped much at all. Even with the announced additions. Maybe people are waiting to see if the repeat the mistakes of the VGF and Poly.

 

[davidl81]

I totally agree. Recent listings have definitely skyrocketed! However, your numbers are also based solely on current asking prices whereas my numbers are based on agreed-upon contract prices. Your numbers can and will change in negotiations. My numbers, while older, are set!

Robb,
One thing I would add is that the ROFR post will be a little misleading. Most people who post on that board are very experienced buyers who negotiated the best prices versus the average resale buyer. Also I would think that the people posting tend to be ones who got really good deals and kinda want to brag a little or at least be told that they got a good deal. You don't see may post on there for SSR contracts at $89 per point, but those contracts are selling.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I totally agree. Recent listings have definitely skyrocketed! However, your numbers are also based solely on current asking prices whereas my numbers are based on agreed-upon contract prices. Your numbers can and will change in negotiations. My numbers, while older, are set!

I did not base my estimations on list price, I based it on what I see happening currently with list prices, closed sales, and what a few brokers are telling me. This is NOT scientific, and I stated they are my best guess. In real estate, you value a home on comps of closed sales, just like you did, but I believe there has been a price spike that is NOT reflected in ROFR yet as it is happening NOW.

Additionally, the prices will be within a range of $15pp of my estimate or so depending on if it is loaded, has current year, or is stripped. Of course there will always be outliers.

I simply wanted a short chart to estimate current prices that DVC resorts are selling for. Also, I wanted to see how they all compare. For example, I personally would not buy OKW over SSR when the difference is only $10pp as the longer lifespan of SSR is worth at least $20pp or more than OKW (in my opinion).

In fact, I think SSR is the BEST VALUE for anyone looking to buy a resale and if you are flexible and would be happy there, it is currently a bargain vs the other resorts and especially vs direct poly sales prices. Also, Disney Springs is looking really awesome and it is always packed, so the proximity to SSR will be a selling feature soon.

I was also surprised to see BC selling for such a premium, but people really love that location and it is hard to book for popular times.

I would not fault anyone buying any DVC resort at the prices I outlined as they all are good options, even HHI and VB, but you better want to visit those locations often to justify those resorts.

DVC Doctor,

Your research closely resembles my own thumbnail guesstimates. I like your analysis. It all seems spot on. Looks to me that you compared current sales prices to original DVC release price. I've been comparing the recent resale price to resale prices when I bought which was last October. In that short time I've seen a major jump in resale prices. On particular properties and not others.

BLT has jumped from around $95 to its current $125. That's a massive jump in under a year. Like you I blame the Poly and VGF for it popularity.
SSR and OKW have both taken a jump of about $10 a point in that time period. And while I know that others differ from me, I do think that Disney Springs is bringing new interest in these properties. Besides like you said, SSR is the best value in the DVC portfolio.
BCV, BWV Have only seen a modest bump in their resale value. They are popular properties and they will always hold their value. The excitement in the other properties is floating this boat as well.
AKV is interestingly very little changed over the last 10 months. But then again there really is no new draw the bring buyers in.
VWL has got me curious because its price hasn't jumped much at all. Even with the announced additions. Maybe people are waiting to see if the repeat the mistakes of the VGF and Poly.

I did not use the exact lowest original release price, I tried to use a middle value number, not the lowest, not the highest. Again, I am trying to guess the "average price" someone bought from Disney and compare that to the average price I think resales are selling for.

A few years ago, there were fantastic bargains on the resale market and those are gone, but the current prices are good deals and are great alternatives from buying direct prices.

Unfortunately, I WAS looking to buy BLT resale when it was around $90-95 and now those are no longer available as the prices are now much higher. Fortunately, I own BLT that I bought from Disney for around $96pp back in 2009 with free current years points and then again on Black Friday 2010 for $102pp with two years points for free.

 

[bwbuddy5]

And, if you would rather just have a warm, cozy, divide your purchase price by the number of years of vacations you'll be getting, and you'll realize you're getting the best accommodations in the world for just a little more than your annual dues. Aren't numbers a wonderful thing?

 

[jnjhuddle]

Based on the recent uptick in resale prices, here is a rough estimate of typical DVC resale prices according my review of the marketplace (as of August 23, 2015) and some of my personal comments below.

Note that these prices do fluctuate and depend on loaded vs stripped contracts and the size of the contract. Loaded contracts (with current and often banked points) usually sell for $10 more than average and stripped contracts (with zero current points and no points for next year) sell for $10 less than average. The small contracts (25-50) points sell very fast and for the highest prices. Average contracts are around 150 points. The very large contracts 300-500 sell for about $10 or so less than average and the mega 500-1,000 points contracts sell for the lowest price of all and are the hardest to sell.

VGC around $150
VGF around $150
BLT around $125
BC around $100
BW around $95
WL around $85
AK around $85
SSR around $85
OKW around $75
HH around $60
VB around $50

The following is my educated guesses regarding valuations based on the current prices and ignoring any intangible value such as using it for vacations (which is really the most important thing)

*** This is amazing as most timeshares drop 50-75% in value ***

I would say that anyone that bought VGC probably made the BEST deal of any DVC member as they will have about a 40% profit if they sell - congrats, you win! I would expect to see prices stabilize and even rise here. I doubt they will come down due to the high demand. If I could go back in time, this is the resort I wish I bought into.

VGF appears to be a solid choice as the prices are holding firm and anyone that bought direct from Disney is probably at break-even. I have no idea how the fixed weeks are fairing in terms of resale value though. I would EXPECT to see VGF prices rise, especially for smaller <100 point contracts in the next few years as this is a small resort that is hard to book. Again, anyone that bought here made a wise purchase so far.

BLT owners are probably at a 5-10% profit and I EXPECT to see these prices also rise due to the fact that poly has no 1 or 2 or 3 bedroom units and this is so close to the MK. I think the prices will be below VGF, but above where we are now. Yes, it is still a good time to buy here.

I would estimate anyone that bought BC or BW is also in a good position if they sell and will probably make 20-30% profit. WL is closing fast as there is no inventory and owners are probably sitting on a 15-20% profit. I would be VERY concerned about the shorter RTU expiration date at these resorts in terms of future value. However people really love the locations here and F&W is very popular. I am a little surprised that BC and BWV sell for more than SSR and AK, but that appears to be a result of the smaller size of BC and location of BW, but as these two resorts get older, I would expect to see them selling for less than SSR and AK.

AK owners are probably still at a 10% loss now and I am scratching my head to understand why and I think it boils down to the HIGH annual dues at this resort combined with the LARGE massive amount of rooms here. It is relatively easy to book at 7 months, so there is no killer need to buy here. I see many people buy SSR and book here cheaper than buying here and staying here.

SSR owners can finally breath easy as they are probably at close to break even now and the Treehouse Villas have been a great addition. I still think they overbuilt this place, but with the new Disney Springs, this place will no longer be considered the ugly sister of DVC members. In fact, this is probably the BEST BUY of any DVC resort in pure terms of cost.

OKW owners are probably very happy as they had many years of vacations and they can sell for more than they paid by about 10-15%. I wish I bought here in 1990 and had those 10 years of free passes. I also think this is the best bang for your DVC point in terms of booking rooms (i.e. best value). I personally think people shuld buy SSR over OKW because the prices are about the same now and you get lower dues and extra 13 or so years of life with SSR. I am not sure when OKW will plateau or start to drop in price, but I think resale prices will be stable for another 10 years.

I would say that anyone that bought VB has made the worst deal as they are probable at a loss if they sell and probably the same for HHI owners. Sorry, this has not been a great financial investment in terms of resale values, but you got to enjoy great beach vacations.

*** Summary - I still recommend buying where you want to stay, but if you are flexible and like to try new places, then you really need to consider the cost, annual dues, and future demand and values. There is usually no wrong DVC purchase as most DVC members do NOT lose money if they buy correctly and use it without wasting points and do not sell for 3-5 years. ***

The prices you list are all either spot on or within $4 of the AVERAGE current LIST prices of all open listings which you can find on that awesome dvc search engine. On their mobile site they give the number of current listings, highest list price, lowest list price and the average list price of all the current listings of the poplular resellers on a nice little chart. It's a great guide, but I think sometimes the high list price of some can skew the numbers a bit. I don't think the low price on this site skews it because nothing stays on the market long enough if it is listed low. People scoop those up. I'm not a financial whiz or anything, just your average nurse, so just my observations and opinion here.

Unless you are buying a small contract OR buying from www.dvcresalemarket.com (where they often list as full price offer only) I think most people are negotiating those prices.
I disagree with Davidl81 that states that the ROFR thread is used by experienced negotiators and braggers. I used and posted on that thread a few months ago as a first time buyer and follow it pretty closely and would say that a pretty healthy portion of people posting on there are also first time buyers looking for support while waiting for The rofr decision to come through.

 

[RobbW]

I did not base my estimations on list price, I based it on what I see happening currently with list prices, closed sales, and what a few brokers are telling me. This is NOT scientific, and I stated they are my best guess. In real estate, you value a home on comps of closed sales, just like you did, but I believe there has been a price spike that is NOT reflected in ROFR yet as it is happening NOW.

Sorry, DVC Doctor, I wasn't trying to start an argument or anything, and I wasn't insisting your prices were wrong. Just merely pointing out the difference in prices based on the source. I was trying to add some additional info by showing the actual agreed-upon contract prices vs. current asking prices. After all, market value isn't what someone is asking for their contract, but rather what a buyer agrees to pay for said contract.

I agree with jnjhuddle that the ROFR thread isn't just experienced DVC buyers who want to brag about the great deal they got. There are plenty of first-time buyers posting on there, myself included.