Price Analysis of Current DVC Resale Listings

[DVC Doctor]

I was just considering selling and wanted to know what is fair value for 25 point contract at SSR? I also hold 190 points at OKW with points banked into 2016.

These are my "opinions"

25 point contracts command a $100-110 price for SSR as small contracts are very desirable

Your 190 point OKW is probably worth around $80-$85

 

[jnjhuddle]

I was just considering selling and wanted to know what is fair value for 25 point contract at SSR? I also hold 190 points at OKW with points banked into 2016.

A friend of mine recently (closed in August) purchased a loaded 25 point SSR contract for $95. She thought she was overpaying, but paid it nonetheless, because it was the right use year.

 

[jnjhuddle]

These are my "opinions"

25 point contracts command a $100-110 price for SSR as small contracts are very desirable

Your 190 point OKW is probably worth around $80-$85

I find this interesting. Your "opinion" on fair valuation of OKW earlier in this thread (~2 weeks ago) stated its worth less than $70 but a good value for $60-$65.

Your thoughts on SSR were close to $70 and below $80. I know smaller contracts command higher prices but $20-$40 above what you valued it at 2 weeks ago? Wow! Your reccomendations for the PP remind me of those DVCresalemarket.com people. Lol!

In all fairness to you, you did point out that your opinion is subject to change.

 

[lifegaardonduty]

It's amazing. Since this original post was created, the resale prices continue to rise. The market is hot!

 

[DVC Doctor]

I find this interesting. Your "opinion" on fair valuation of OKW earlier in this thread (~2 weeks ago) stated its worth less than $70 but a good value for $60-$65.

Your thoughts on SSR were close to $70 and below $80. I know smaller contracts command higher prices but $20-$40 above what you valued it at 2 weeks ago? Wow! Your reccomendations for the PP remind me of those DVCresalemarket.com people. Lol!

In all fairness to you, you did point out that your opinion is subject to change.

You are taking some comments out of context. I like to consider three different prices for a DVC contract - the average market value for a particular resort, the price I like to pay as a buyer (I want to pay the lowest price possible), and the price I want to get if I am a seller (I want to get the highest price possible). I am not a broker and have no Dog in this Fight as I am pretty much done buying DVC points as I have thousands of points and wanted to share my experience and opinions as I have bought many contracts in the past 15 years. The prices I put on Post #1 were current the day I posted that info and they are the average prices - the comments that follows are what I look at and want to pay as a buyer.

I have been both a buyer and seller of DVC contracts and there is always a huge range in prices if you can buy super low and sell high, but it obviously takes a lot of work and research. And no, I am not a flipper of DVC contracts, but have been tempted to buy a super loaded contract and then sell a stripped contract - but never did that as it really is too much hassle as I have a much longer outlook for my points (10 years at least).

To address your comment on values:

The SSR contract that I valued at $100+ is 25 points and those are really rare and commands a huge premium. I personally don't like these small contracts and personally would not buy one, but obviously many others do as they sell way above the average market value of $85pp. I however, would consider any SSR contract around $70 to have a buy-buy-buy rating and the larger contracts 250+ points can be bought that low.

The OKW contract is loaded with banked points so that can be worth $20pp more than a stripped contract. The average OKW price is $75 so $80-85 is a fair price for a loaded contract with banked points. I personally would not want to pay more than $60-65 for OKW and would actually prefer to buy SSR over OKW if the price is within $15 or so. I understand why people like OKW, but at current prices, I personally would want to buy SSR over OKW.

 

[ton80]

Geeze, I feel like i got a bargain for 100 ($84) SSR pts for OCT 2015/2016 if Disney does'nt scoop it up... In ROFR waiting!

 

[GOOFY D]

Yeah, I was looking to add on at either BLT or BWV and have decided against it due to the crazy increases, particularly at BLT.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Yeah, I was looking to add on at either BLT or BWV and have decided against it due to the crazy increases, particularly at BLT.

Currently, there is a $25 per point difference in price for a BLT over BWV on the resale market.

I actually think BLT is a reasonable buy with today current prices around $125pp and would try to buy one at $115-120pp if possible.

On the other hand I personally think BC and BW are currently overvalued at $95 to $100pp, but that is only my opinion. I can't recommend buying BC and BW at $100 as I personally think they are only worth around $80, but obviously the current market supports the higher prices and people love those location (me too, but not at $100pp).

When you compare BLT to BWV I think BLT is the better buy as it has lower annual dues ($1 less) and an 18 year longer lifespan. Even figuring a DVC point is worth $2-3 per year the 18 years represents a $36 to $54 difference in price and if you add in $1 per annual dues increase fro BWV over BLT over 10 years (and that is a conservative estimate and it may be longer) that is another $10pp

Thus, if BLT is worth $125pp, then I personally think BWV should be worth $61-79pp or if you think BWV is worth $100pp then BLT should be worth $146-$164pp

 

[SWofDisorder]

Thanks for all the input, it sounds like the quote was correct and the SSR contract at $105 because it is only 25 point and will load in April. OKW is a nice size. I really thought 190 was perfect and now I banked 52 points into next year. I hope to get $83 for it PP.

I feel we are ready to sell and I did tell the broker not to bring me any stupid offers that I will turn down.

 

[Tardisblue]

On the other hand I personally think BC and BW are currently overvalued at $95 to $100pp, but that is only my opinion. I can't recommend buying BC and BW at $100 as I personally think they are only worth around $80, but obviously the current market supports the higher prices and people love those location (me too, but not at $100pp).

My family was able to spend one night at BWV last week thanks to a friend who had some points that were going to expire. We've been talking back and forth about buying into DVC and we both love the location of BWV being so close to Epcot. It looks like all resale contracts are still in the $100pp range 8 months after the this comment was made. So, based on this, do you feel like these points should still be around $80pp?

 

[CMNJ]

My family was able to spend one night at BWV last week thanks to a friend who had some points that were going to expire. We've been talking back and forth about buying into DVC and we both love the location of BWV being so close to Epcot. It looks like all resale contracts are still in the $100pp range 8 months after the this comment was made. So, based on this, do you feel like these points should still be around $80pp?

The problem is that BCV/BWV are extremely popular resorts and staying there for F&W and other popular times is difficult without owning there. Combine that with Disney raising the direct price (from $130 pp in late 2014 to $160 pp now) and the new additions coming to DHS (Star wars land and Toy story land) and it seems like prices are likely to stay elevated even though they both have the shortest RTU date. I don't religiously follow the resale websites but I thought I had seen some BWV listings in the $90s recently. Chances are you could negotiate a little under asking so it might be close to $90 pp than $100. If you are looking for the best deal it would probably be SSR but there is no guarantee you'd be able to consistently trade into BWV-there have been a lot of posts recently about how difficult this fall has been to book for DVC members at the 7 month window at all resorts.

 

[dsnydaddy]

Agree. I love these resorts as well. But don't buy because the RTU date limits their value to me. So for me not worth so much. But others value the location so much it justifies the added cost.

 

[SuperRob]

I've been very pleasantly surprised at how well DVC holds it's value (and even appreciates in some cases). We bought SSR direct at $99 in 2011, and looking at the resale sites we're very close to being back at that point. We just closed on VGF at $145, and even that seems to have taken an uptick in just the past couple months. I certainly didn't buy it to make money, but it's nice to know I'm not really losing any either.

 

[freediverdude]

I still think that in the next 10 years or so the date of the 2042 resorts will start to become a factor. I don't know what Disney will do in those cases- it will be hard to prop up the price of something that has 15 years left when that starts to become the break even point on the costs.

 

[dsnydaddy]

Exactly what I think. In 10 years my SSR will be worth about what I paid for it. But I fear that the older resorts will be declining in value being so close to their expiration. So if you do not ever plan to sell then paying the extra right now is not a bad deal but if you think that things may change for you in the coming years then it's a serious consideration

 

[RaymOOOnd]

We just returned a couple of days ago from BWV (our first time there). I enjoy the location but regret to say that I honestly felt very little magic while in the lobby, hallways, and villa. Probably not the place for those who love the warm thick theming and ambiance of AKV.

Even disregarding my personal feelings about the colder feel of the interior, objectively I agree that these prices don't seem like a good value. Remember that the contract has about half the life-span of a new 50-year contract. Shouldn't that make it sell for half as much (i.e. 70-80pp?). Perhaps slightly more than that considering the cheaper point cost of the rooms in comparison with the monorail resorts (especially VGF and Poly), but not $100pp.

 

[pmaurer74]

We just returned a couple of days ago from BWV (our first time there). I enjoy the location but regret to say that I honestly felt very little magic while in the lobby, hallways, and villa. Probably not the place for those who love the warm thick theming and ambiance of AKV.

Even disregarding my personal feelings about the colder feel of the interior, objectively I agree that these prices don't seem like a good value. Remember that the contract has about half the life-span of a new 50-year contract. Shouldn't that make it sell for half as much (i.e. 70-80pp?). Perhaps slightly more than that considering the cheaper point cost of the rooms in comparison with the monorail resorts (especially VGF and Poly), but not $100pp.

location location location...

 

[knobster]

I have always ignored the "discount" that those DVC fliers and signs tout, because they are based on rack rates. The analysis I did
was against the discounted room rate at the time we like to travel. To put it another way, how much do you have to spend
for the room you want (it could be a villa - they discount those many times) when you want it, and can you really get
that room?

For us, we love BLT and stayed there on a cash reservation, with something like 30% off, 3 days after it opened. Since then,
the discounts for BLT went down and down, and now, BLT has been excluded from every discount the past few years. So,
we ended up buying BLT resale (for slightly MORE than we could have bought direct for during that first stay, when they were
offering 10% off the $120/pt price - oh well ).

So, for those of you on the fence about a particular resort, try to book it with a discount, and see how easily you
can do so. If you have to pay rack rates, repeatedly, the payback time gets shorter.

 

[Supplanter]

I still think that in the next 10 years or so the date of the 2042 resorts will start to become a factor. I don't know what Disney will do in those cases- it will be hard to prop up the price of something that has 15 years left when that starts to become the break even point on the costs.

I agree. I think most people plan to get at least 10 years of use from the club. After 10 years usually your life has changed so much its time to reevaluate whether it still fits (job changes, kids growing up, changes to vacation habits, etc). If it doesn't you'd want to get your money out, but no one will be buying in if they only get 5 or 10 years of use.
Once they reach the less than 15 years left threshold, I'd suspect prices will start to drop on those resorts around 10% a year.

 

[JHank44]

They theoretically should be priced to some percent of the discount to what you can get a room for cash. As an example, say MFs are $10 and a typical room for cash is $20 / point in the future. You save $10/point/year so the price should be X% * $10 * years remaining. Simplistically, let's assume buyer and seller share the savings so x% = 50% the value will be $50/point at year 10 declining by $5/year. This completely ignores discounting but you get the idea.