Box Office Discussion

[saskdw]

Now that's a little different. I don't think Disney is worried yet but if they keep losing market share to universal that's when the worry starts. They lost I think .9% in market share this past year. While universal gained 1% or so. The new water park isn't going to change things a whole lot except maybe people go to volcano bay instead of one of the Disney water parks. People aren't going to skip one of the theme parks for a day at volcano though.

Once universal announces that third gate, that's when things will become serious.

In the info UO sent out to AP holders they announced Volcano Bay as the 3rd gate. They are calling it a "Water Theme Park like no other".

I think Volcano Bay may have a slightly bigger impact than you are anticipating. They are building a 6th onsite resort across the street which will mean 3 resorts that are basically attached to VB and shuttle rides to the entrance from the Deluxe resorts.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

That is true but I think it's more important to look at market share right now and the rates at which those attendance numbers increase by. I think universal park increased by something like 10%. That's huge. Disneys AK, Epcot, and DHS only increased minimally. Summer attendance has been surprisingly slow compared to the last few years.

Sorry but at those differences in attendance figures market share changes is a horrible statistic to compare. They are insignificant at that point. Market share does NOT raise concern at this point at all. That's just a way to make numbers say anything. Believe me I know ;-)

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

In the info UO sent out to AP holders they announced Volcano Bay as the 3rd gate. They are calling it a "Water Theme Park like no other".

I think Volcano Bay may have a slightly bigger impact than you are anticipating. They are building a 6th onsite resort across the street which will mean 3 resorts that are basically attached to VB and shuttle rides to the entrance from the Deluxe resorts.

And if universal wants to go that route they again don't look great...that means disney has 6 parks to universals 3. It's a nice marketing trick that will help slightly but not really. At best it may attract some new people to the area but most who have been to Disney will say "but doesn't Disney have 2 water parks". Universals "3rd park" of volcano bay will not effect Disney at all

 

[rteetz]

In the info UO sent out to AP holders they announced Volcano Bay as the 3rd gate. They are calling it a "Water Theme Park like no other".

I think Volcano Bay may have a slightly bigger impact than you are anticipating. They are building a 6th onsite resort across the street which will mean 3 resorts that are basically attached to VB and shuttle rides to the entrance from the Deluxe resorts.

Yes they are calling it that and supposedly its supposed to be a hybrid water/theme park. It seems that most are still just considering it a water park though. Universal also owns Wet n Wild which they will be closing at the end of this year. They could've kept that open and have two water parks like Disney, then open a third theme park. That would really press into Disney.

 

[rteetz]

Sorry but at those differences in attendance figures market share changes is a horrible statistic to compare. They are insignificant at that point. Market share does NOT raise concern at this point at all. That's just a way to make numbers say anything. Believe me I know ;-)

Those attendance numbers are also just estimates we don't know what the actual numbers are. I have heard stories that DCA for example is higher than TEA reports it as.

 

[saskdw]

And if universal wants to go that route they again don't look great...that means disney has 6 parks to universals 3. It's a nice marketing trick that will help slightly but not really. At best it may attract some new people to the area but most who have been to Disney will say "but doesn't Disney have 2 water parks". Universals "3rd park" of volcano bay will not effect Disney at all

Until it actually opens and I have experienced it for myself I don't really have a firm opinion. I'm just stating the info UO is releasing. They are making it sound like VB is something well beyond what the WDW water parks offer and that is why it is a 3rd gate. Time will tell.

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

Well, the two Disney water parks are getting quite long in the tooth, so I would expect Volcano Bay to be much fresher and cutting edge.

Plus it will have evenimg hours complete with night-time special effects. This may end up making the Disney water parks quaint and old-fashioned by comparison.

 

[TwoMisfits]

I know you asked him but I doubt it's concerning Disney right now. Dory has been a hit, they have the top 4 movies of the year right now. Disney isn't worried at all yet.

Well, they did - Pets will almost certainly break into one of the top 4 spots...

 

[Goofy2015]

The Secret Life of Pets can get as high as 3 and as low as 7. This is after the summer box office season is over. At the end of the year, that can 3-7 range might be a 5-10 range. This is all domestically. Jungle Book and Secret Life of Pets opened with about the same opening weekend. Jungle Book had an advantage of lack of competition for a weeks after its release. The Jungle Book audience may have had some lapping of a target audience with Captain America. But I would consider Jungle Book more of a family crowd movie then Captain America.

Universal created this movie with Illumination entertainment, which created Minions. Minions opened up with a higher box office of $115MM and finished $333MM. Then Secret Life of Pets will still have a lingering competition with Dory and soon to be Ice Age. I just see it as possibly passing BvS, maybe Zootopia. But not Jungle Book. It could be I would guess it hits $335MM at most. At the end of August, I can see the Box Office ranking as:

1. Finding Dory
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Deadpool
4. The Jungle Book
5. Zootopia
6. The Secret Life of Pets
7. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
8. Suicide Squad
9. Star Trek Beyond
10. Ghostbusters - somehow this movie is getting better then expected reviews, it may even be #9

 

[soniam]

The Secret Life of Pets can get as high as 3 and as low as 7. This is after the summer box office season is over. At the end of the year, that can 3-7 range might be a 5-10 range. This is all domestically. Jungle Book and Secret Life of Pets opened with about the same opening weekend. Jungle Book had an advantage of lack of competition for a weeks after its release. The Jungle Book audience may have had some lapping of a target audience with Captain America. But I would consider Jungle Book more of a family crowd movie then Captain America.

Universal created this movie with Illumination entertainment, which created Minions. Minions opened up with a higher box office of $115MM and finished $333MM. Then Secret Life of Pets will still have a lingering competition with Dory and soon to be Ice Age. I just see it as possibly passing BvS, maybe Zootopia. But not Jungle Book. It could be I would guess it hits $335MM at most. At the end of August, I can see the Box Office ranking as:

1. Finding Dory
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Deadpool
4. The Jungle Book
5. Zootopia
6. The Secret Life of Pets
7. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
8. Suicide Squad
9. Star Trek Beyond
10. Ghostbusters - somehow this movie is getting better then expected reviews, it may even be #9

I thought Zootopia exceeded Jungle Book. Didn't Zootopia just blow a bunch of stuff out of the water, even Frozen, at least in some markets or some measurements? Secret Life of Pets can't beat Zootopia, if the numbers I thought it got are true. I think Ghostbusters will be higher, even though personally I don't want to see it.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Sorry but at those differences in attendance figures market share changes is a horrible statistic to compare. They are insignificant at that point. Market share does NOT raise concern at this point at all. That's just a way to make numbers say anything. Believe me I know ;-)

Honestly Disney cares about two things:

1. Market share - i.e. the loss of potential business in town

2. Length of stay - ie how to gauge perspective revenues/profits in far advance and best squeeze the most out of overhead.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Well, the two Disney water parks are getting quite long in the tooth, so I would expect Volcano Bay to be much fresher and cutting edge.

Plus it will have evenimg hours complete with night-time special effects. This may end up making the Disney water parks quaint and old-fashioned by comparison.

Are you saying that leaving one park only slightly modified in 27 years...

And another 100% the same in 19...

Is a BAD idea?!?

What the hell? Why didn't anyone alert management?

...get Iger on the phone...

 

[Planogirl]

I think that if Disney was going to worry then they would have last year when Universal won box office. I adore Universal but I recognize that they have a long way to go before they put much of a dent in Disney.

 

[Lesverts]

The Secret Life of Pets can get as high as 3 and as low as 7. This is after the summer box office season is over. At the end of the year, that can 3-7 range might be a 5-10 range. This is all domestically. Jungle Book and Secret Life of Pets opened with about the same opening weekend. Jungle Book had an advantage of lack of competition for a weeks after its release. The Jungle Book audience may have had some lapping of a target audience with Captain America. But I would consider Jungle Book more of a family crowd movie then Captain America.

Universal created this movie with Illumination entertainment, which created Minions. Minions opened up with a higher box office of $115MM and finished $333MM. Then Secret Life of Pets will still have a lingering competition with Dory and soon to be Ice Age. I just see it as possibly passing BvS, maybe Zootopia. But not Jungle Book. It could be I would guess it hits $335MM at most. At the end of August, I can see the Box Office ranking as:

1. Finding Dory
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Deadpool
4. The Jungle Book
5. Zootopia
6. The Secret Life of Pets
7. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
8. Suicide Squad
9. Star Trek Beyond
10. Ghostbusters - somehow this movie is getting better then expected reviews, it may even be #9

You forget Jason Bourne. Tracking on that is a lot stronger then Star Trek. ST tracking is in the mid to high 100 million range. Bourne is 200+.

Out of the major movies that are to come, they are all going to be hard to predict.

Ice Age: animation fatigue and diminished returns
Star Trek: diminished returns film over film and last film wasn't loved
Jason Bourne: 9 years since Damon was last in that role, have people lost interest? Is it still as good as the last two.
Suicide Squad: good cast, but characters are not well known. What impact does BvS have out depressing box office, especially if reviews are bad

 

[lockedoutlogic]

You forget Jason Bourne. Tracking on that is a lot stronger then Star Trek. ST tracking is in the mid to high 100 million range. Bourne is 200+.

Out of the major movies that are to come, they are all going to be hard to predict.

Ice Age: animation fatigue and diminished returns
Star Trek: diminished returns film over film and last film wasn't loved
Jason Bourne: 9 years since Damon was last in that role, have people lost interest? Is it still as good as the last two.
Suicide Squad: good cast, but characters are not well known. What impact does BvS have out depressing box office, especially if reviews are bad

I have the best hopes for Bourne...supremacy and ultimatum were awesome movies...

Star Trek is likely to be a let down...as with all Star Trek...more movies will trend away from mass appeal and head back to the base.

Ice age will be a blip on the animation radar

And the suicide squad is another in the long line of how Hollywood caters to the lowest common denominator - my prediction.

 

[TwoMisfits]

The Secret Life of Pets can get as high as 3 and as low as 7. This is after the summer box office season is over. At the end of the year, that can 3-7 range might be a 5-10 range. This is all domestically. Jungle Book and Secret Life of Pets opened with about the same opening weekend. Jungle Book had an advantage of lack of competition for a weeks after its release. The Jungle Book audience may have had some lapping of a target audience with Captain America. But I would consider Jungle Book more of a family crowd movie then Captain America.

Universal created this movie with Illumination entertainment, which created Minions. Minions opened up with a higher box office of $115MM and finished $333MM. Then Secret Life of Pets will still have a lingering competition with Dory and soon to be Ice Age. I just see it as possibly passing BvS, maybe Zootopia. But not Jungle Book. It could be I would guess it hits $335MM at most. At the end of August, I can see the Box Office ranking as:

1. Finding Dory
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Deadpool
4. The Jungle Book
5. Zootopia
6. The Secret Life of Pets
7. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
8. Suicide Squad
9. Star Trek Beyond
10. Ghostbusters - somehow this movie is getting better then expected reviews, it may even be #9

This is an original movie, not a sequel...Pets has an outside chance at $400M (and will almost certainly hit $350M+) before the end of its run. Animated originals almost always play with bigger legs than sequels...that puts it within range of toppling both Deadpool (which is non-Disney) and Jungle Book (Disney) for the #3 spot...and it could take Cap down at #2 (Cap will die under $410M)...

 

[Goofy2015]

I thought Zootopia exceeded Jungle Book. Didn't Zootopia just blow a bunch of stuff out of the water, even Frozen, at least in some markets or some measurements? Secret Life of Pets can't beat Zootopia, if the numbers I thought it got are true. I think Ghostbusters will be higher, even though personally I don't want to see it.

I am just talking about domestic numbers.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

Not really box office news...but I found it interesting that to date the Good Dinosaur has sold the most DVDs of any movie in 2016 to date, and the 3rd most Blu-rays. I would not have thought that...I figured it would do well, but not that well on sales. Star Wars Episode VII has sold the most blu ray and second most dvds.

 

[PuppyJonathan]

This is an original movie, not a sequel...Pets has an outside chance at $400M (and will almost certainly hit $350M+) before the end of its run. Animated originals almost always play with bigger legs than sequels...that puts it within range of toppling both Deadpool (which is non-Disney) and Jungle Book (Disney) for the #3 spot...and it could take Cap down at #2 (Cap will die under $410M)...

It depends on word of mouth to reach 350, and I highly doubt it will top Zootopia (yay!). So far reception isn't really the kindest from the people who buy the tickets. It all depends though on how weekdays do and the drop next weekend

I honestly tried avoiding this thread because the box office is a guilty pleasure of mine that I really didn't want to let myself loose on but now that boxofficetheory has let extremely cynical people put down others I kind of want to try here instead of lurking there

 

[Taylor Nicole]

I have the best hopes for Bourne...supremacy and ultimatum were awesome movies...

Star Trek is likely to be a let down...as with all Star Trek...more movies will trend away from mass appeal and head back to the base.

Ice age will be a blip on the animation radar

And the suicide squad is another in the long line of how Hollywood caters to the lowest common denominator - my prediction.

How exactly does Suicide Squad cater to the lowest common denominator? Please explain.