Box Office Discussion

[twebber55]

Bfg struggled...

Dory crushed to an estimated $52 mil weekend after Monday.

Dory will fall to the secret life of pet's this weekend...but will still do well through the month and end upward of $350 domestic...maybe a billion total. That's toy story 3 range if I remember correctly.

its already made 380 million
could it make 450 million

 

[lockedoutlogic]

its already made 380 million
could it make 450 million

Yeah, what you said

The reality is that the fish just became Pixars strongest franchise...or at least 1A with toy story.

I think the appeal is pretty universal across all spectrums - unlike cars.

It's just simple, uncomplicated fun...with a core emotional tug...and it's refreshing to see in a complicated time/world.

Hopefully this leads to more park development.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

its already made 380 million
could it make 450 million

IMO making 450 million is not the ceiling for it. Sure it's possible it won't make 450 million, but I would say not likely.

Dory was the 18th fastest to 100 million
17th fastest to 150 million
13th fastest to 200 million
9th fastest to 250 million
7th fastest to 300 million
6th fastest to 350 million

It still has just under 20 million to go to 400 million, but even conservative estimates would have it reaching that before Friday (when Secret Life of Pets comes out) putting it as the 5th fastest to 400 million. It should see it's largest drop of any weekend coming up this weekend, but after this weekend we will have a better view of what it's final potential is. If it makes 20 million or more this weekend, then I think 500 million is a possibility. Dory is on Day 18 right now, Shrek 2 made 139 million after day 18 -- if Dory were to make that it would be over 500 million. Toy Story 3 made 114 million after Day 18 -- which would put it just short of 500 million. So far Dory has made more than toy Story 3 on 17 out of the 18 days (yesterday being the first time Toy Story 3 made more...but on day 17 Dory made over 50% more that Toy Story 3). Despicable Me 2 made 100 million after Day 18, Finding Nemo made 144 million, Inside out made 106 million, and Zootopia made 136 million. Based on these numbers I would say the 500 million is achievable, with the ceiling being around 510 million. (note - only 6 films have made 500 million, so that is a lofty number)

I will be really interested to see what it does now with some big competition.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

BFG was poorly marketed IMO. We saw virtually no ads for it and even the few we saw weren't very descriptive.

It's funny in that you are not the first person I have heard say this ... yet I have seen tons of ads for it - both on TV and webbased (youtube, etc.) - to the point I was thinking it was overkill .... so definitely at least uneven with the advertizing

 

[mshanson3121]

I hope The BFG does well...Roald Dahl, Steven Spielberg, and Disney....what's not to love?

My kids are so excited to see it. Already been to Dory, they loved it (despite horrid reviews!). They also can't wait for Pete's Dragon.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

My kids are so excited to see it. Already been to Dory, they loved it (despite horrid reviews!). They also can't wait for Pete's Dragon.

Horrid reviews?

95% on tomatoes...

Where the Canadian reviews bad because they didn't have any moose in the movie?

(Cheap joke, aye?)

 

[mshanson3121]

Horrid reviews?

95% on tomatoes...

Where the Canadian reviews bad because they didn't have any moose in the movie?

(Cheap joke, aye?)

Numerous smaller scale reviews (for the record I read American reviews normally) that commented on how dark the movie was. Out of 8 friends of mine that saw it, we're the only ones that have kids that liked it

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Numerous smaller scale reviews (for the record I read American reviews normally) that commented on how dark the movie was. Out of 8 friends of mine that saw it, we're the only ones that have kids that liked it

I think you're expectations were a tad too high...

It was a good family movie, continued the story and introduced some good new characters...

That's about what you'll get

 

[ChloesDaddy]

IMO making 450 million is not the ceiling for it. Sure it's possible it won't make 450 million, but I would say not likely.

Dory was the 18th fastest to 100 million
17th fastest to 150 million
13th fastest to 200 million
9th fastest to 250 million
7th fastest to 300 million
6th fastest to 350 million

It still has just under 20 million to go to 400 million, but even conservative estimates would have it reaching that before Friday (when Secret Life of Pets comes out) putting it as the 5th fastest to 400 million. It should see it's largest drop of any weekend coming up this weekend, but after this weekend we will have a better view of what it's final potential is. If it makes 20 million or more this weekend, then I think 500 million is a possibility. Dory is on Day 18 right now, Shrek 2 made 139 million after day 18 -- if Dory were to make that it would be over 500 million. Toy Story 3 made 114 million after Day 18 -- which would put it just short of 500 million. So far Dory has made more than toy Story 3 on 17 out of the 18 days (yesterday being the first time Toy Story 3 made more...but on day 17 Dory made over 50% more that Toy Story 3). Despicable Me 2 made 100 million after Day 18, Finding Nemo made 144 million, Inside out made 106 million, and Zootopia made 136 million. Based on these numbers I would say the 500 million is achievable, with the ceiling being around 510 million. (note - only 6 films have made 500 million, so that is a lofty number)

I will be really interested to see what it does now with some big competition.

Good analysis. Even if it sees week-to-week drops of 45-50% it will make well over $450MM domestic. I'll guess $495MM and $710MM worldwide.

 

[mshanson3121]

I think you're expectations were a tad too high...

It was a good family movie, continued the story and introduced some good new characters...

That's about what you'll get

I fail to see how my expectations were too high, when I said that we loved the movie I'll assume you meant to say their expectations were too high.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I fail to see how my expectations were too high, when I said that we loved the movie I'll assume you meant to say their expectations were too high.

Yeah...that...

 

[Lesverts]

Good analysis. Even if it sees week-to-week drops of 45-50% it will make well over $450MM domestic. I'll guess $495MM and $710MM worldwide.

Dory is going to be a billion dollar film. Nemo made 936 million 13 years ago without China. It still has the UK, Japan, Germany and Korea among major markets. Plus another 100 million plus from China.

Films are a lot more front loaded then they use to be, even a couple years ago. With exhibitor contracts the way they are, studios want as many people to see a film, as quickly as possible to increase their take. Films just don't have the legs they use too. Dory is going to be at about a 3 times multiplier by the end of this weekend. Not sure I see enough to increase that much beyond 3.5. Having two family films plus some fanboy sequels coming out in the next 3 weeks is going to be a lot of domestic downward pressure on Dory.

 

[Goofy2015]

July 8th - 10th Weekend Box Office Prediction

1. The Secret Life of Pets - $81MM
2. Finding Dory - $24MM
3. The Legend of Tarzan - $22MM
4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - $19MM
5. The BFG - $12MM

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

July 8th - 10th Weekend Box Office Prediction

1. The Secret Life of Pets - $81MM
2. Finding Dory - $24MM
3. The Legend of Tarzan - $22MM
4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - $19MM
5. The BFG - $12MM

When I first saw these numbers I thought your numbers for Finding Dory were a bit large with the release of Secret Life of Pets. But given Dory made over $8m on Tuesday, which was a little more than I had anticipated, maybe that $24m isn't such a reach. Most animated movies of this level make a lot more than 3x the Tuesday take prior to the weekend at this point in the run, so assuming only 3x with a blockbuster like Pets out seems reasonable. That would put Dory at over $430m, only $11m behind the record for an animated movie.

 

[Goofy2015]

I do feel like my estimate is more on the upside for almost all 5 of these movies.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

Dory is now over 396 million after yesterday. That means it will break 400 million today in just 21 days (5th fastest ever, only behind A Force Awakens - 8 days, Jurassic World - 10 days, The Avengers - 14 days and The Dark Knight in 18 days). Less than 104.6 million to 500 million.

This weekend it releases in South Korea and a number of smaller markets. Next weekend it releases in Japan, Mexico and Hong Kong. UK at the end of the month. Lots of European Countries in August and September

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Dory is now over 396 million after yesterday. That means it will break 400 million today in just 21 days (5th fastest ever, only behind A Force Awakens - 8 days, Jurassic World - 10 days, The Avengers - 14 days and The Dark Knight in 18 days). Less than 104.6 million to 500 million.

This weekend it releases in South Korea and a number of smaller markets. Next weekend it releases in Japan, Mexico and Hong Kong. UK at the end of the month. Lots of European Countries in August and September

What your saying is: it's a lock for #2...has a legit chance of knocking off the ice queen of overated?

 

[Planogirl]

What your saying is: it's a lock for #2...has a legit chance of knocking off the ice queen of overated?

Wow, could that happen? Could something replace the mediocre Frozen? I can't say that I'd disapprove.

I'm also hoping that Secret Life of Pets does well. I've heard that UNI is holding off planning an attraction in Orlando until they see box office. Shrek really needs to be replaced.

It could be a good weekend at the movies.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

What your saying is: it's a lock for #2...has a legit chance of knocking off the ice queen of overated?

It seems a lock to be number 1. Projections have it beating shrek possibly by the end of next weekend. It's not a matter of if but when at this point. I am in th camp that now thinks 500 million will happen, but that's the only real question at this point (and maybe $1b worldwide but hard to imagine it not breaking $1b if it breaks $500 m domestically, but too many international markets have not opened yet)

 

[B4DlandOpened]

Just curious. What website lists these movie attendence numbers?
(I'm not a huge movie person)