You have to take in the expense side, as you pointed out. Everything from Mousekeeping to laundry-related expenses are decreased. Plus dues/maintenance fees are profit plus inflation proof. So, DVC'rs have a higher profit margin going in due to lower expense and predictable income flow YTY.
Disney does not pay expenses on the DVC villas...but they also do not earn steady revenues from them either.
The margins are pretty easy to track due to the existence of DVC dues. A BoardWalk Preferred View Studio costs 107 points for a week in October. With dues of $6.01 per point, the operating cost of that room is $643 for the week. That includes all resort expenses, insurance, property taxes, long-term maintenance, bus & boat transportation, etc.
Meanwhile even if we assume 30% discounting on the rack rate of $448, WDW sees revenues of $2195 per week vs. expenses of $643.
Over 50 years, that cash hotel room is far more profitable than the one-time DVC sale of 107 points.
Meanwhile, I have to disagree with pretty much everything else that you said. Disney often speaks in terms of this magical figure called "Average Guest Spending." Every insider I've spoken with that would have some knowledge of the situation claims that DVC owners trend very close to the bottom of that figure.
Simply put, it's the occasional guests who are buying park tickets trip-by-trip, buying dining plans or otherwise eating most meals in Disney restaurants and gobbling up souvenirs, photo passes and other trip remembrances.
This past March I was part of a group of 8 who spent eight nights at Old Key West. We ate exactly 6 restaurant meals over that stay and our souvenir purchases were virtually nonexistent. My own family of 4 used a couple theme park days and a couple waterpark visits from non-expiring tickets that will last for years.
Disney's investment in this doesn't lie. The DVC demographic is very profitable and has disposable income.
Nah. The people with disposable income are paying cash for Poly, GF or Contemporary with no regard for 11 month booking windows, point management, cumbersome cancellation policies, lack of concierge access, etc.
DVC owners tend to be more frugal...looking for ways to expand their access to WDW without significantly increasing the budget. DVC is a vehicle for spending more nights in deluxe rooms while reducing ticket costs (AP discount) and meal budgets (in-room dining.)
There's no question that DVC is important to Disney. The up-front purchase dollars are significant...and they allow Disney to either invest the proceeds from a cash purchase or finance buyers at appealing rates. It's a guaranteed stream of business in both good times and bad...a stream of business Disney doesn't have to constantly work to earn.
Still, overall spending on a per guest / per day basis is not close to what non-members spend throughout property.
For every DVC'r that's eating 3 meals a day in their kitchen, many more are not.
Flip that around: For every DVC member eating 3 meals per day in Disney restaurants, many more are not.