FP+ is Live! Magic Bands in the park!

[Robo]

So did I pass my final this year?

You passed.

 

[AustinTink]

This whole mess gives me a headache. We will be in Orlando next week, staying at Universal because honestly they are doing more things right in my opinion than Disney at this point. Their express pass for onsite guests works like a dream.

We will be driving over to Disney for three of our vacation days. I'm calling it our farewell tour, because I don't see us returning to WDW because of the new system. I can't even begin to list all the things I dislike about it, so I won't even try.

Luckily, we visit Disneyland every summer as well. This will be our home park from now on... until they implement FP Plus. I hope they never do...

 

[mom2rtk]

Luckily, we visit Disneyland every summer as well. This will be our home park from now on... until they implement FP Plus. I hope they never do...

We're headed to DLR this year, partly for that very reason. They did start FP enforcement in February this year, which is supposedly the first step toward FP+. But I'd say they will want to see how things roll out at WDW before trying anything at DLR. It's a different beast too, with far more AP holders in the daily mix.

 

[bcrook]

Robo, you the man of sarcasm but I will play along.

I know another poster put out an article with details of ride capacity for each at Disney World. I am not going to try to find this article, but I am sure you know it more then I.

From my understanding, Fantasmic has roughly 7900 Seating (after the addition) and 3000 stand by. So I would guess (no hard numbers), that about 1600 is allotted for the dining package. That leaves about 6300 seats. After the recent tests, it seemed to me they saved half of the seats for standby and the other half for Fastpass. So lets now take out another 3150 in seats. The final number available for FP seems to be 3150.

Ok, now how many will be for FP+ and what could be left for same day Fastpass. I would say they allow another two sections for FP+ thus about 1600 to be scheduled with the remainder of 1550 for daily Fastpass.

I would estimate that this is probably very close to the amount of FP avail for TSMM under the current system. If that is correct I would estimate the the remaining FP would be gone by 12 -1pm.

If Disney offers two shows on a night I would guess that it would also offer FP+ for an additional 1600 available. Now the dining package isn't available for the second show, so this would open up a bunch of more daily FP daily. I would argue another 3200 daily FP. In this scenario daily FP would be available to about 7pm.

For me the fact that disney is putting the FP+ option on almost EVERY ride. They expect the main rides to be booked up. Since you have to figure less then 50% of people will schedule their rides 60 days out (Most will probably try to schedule the day before or during their trip sometime). I am expecting that people will notice that they can't pre-schedule the E-attractions, thus using FP+ on the lessor rides, parades, fireworks and meet and greets.

I can't see a way that the amount of FP+ options scheduled by everyone not to have about 50% available during the day. This could be for normal everyday use or the surprise FP. Unless you truly think Disney is going to allow EVERY single FP to be scheduled prior to someones arrival. How many people is this going to upset? Too many for me to think we are not going to have both options.

In conclusion, if Disney follows along this path we should have some limited available FP available each and every day. These may go fast for many rides, but I still think they will be available. My guess is somewhere about 50-60% of what is available today. Rides like PP, SM, TSM and EE will probably go very fast.

So did I pass my final this year?

I am not quite sure I am following. I could use a table.

But, the research shows that approximately 12500 guests ride TSMM a day. What percentage of those get FP is not known, but best guess has it at 60%. So possibly 7500 are distributed and wiped out daily by noon?

Otherwise, I liked reading your "paper".

I have the most difficult time understanding the concept of saving day of FP back. Here is why, if the big selling point is that people can go online to book FP in advance, there better be fastpasses available, and they better be good. If I log in at the thirty day mark and all the FP+ for TSMM or F! Are gone, and now I have to get up at rope drop and rush to the park grab the saved FP I am really going to be irritated.

I think Disney is going to have to make sure the online customer is satisfied...because this whole thing is based on being able to plan advance.

Of course this only applies to a small number of attractions. Most will have plenty available to grab and switch on the day of.

 

[Squidgyness]

This whole mess gives me a headache. We will be in Orlando next week, staying at Universal because honestly they are doing more things right in my opinion than Disney at this point. Their express pass for onsite guests works like a dream.

We will be driving over to Disney for three of our vacation days. I'm calling it our farewell tour, because I don't see us returning to WDW because of the new system. I can't even begin to list all the things I dislike about it, so I won't even try.

Luckily, we visit Disneyland every summer as well. This will be our home park from now on... until they implement FP Plus. I hope they never do...

Unfortunately that wouldn't quite work as disney has way too many onsite guests, front of the line or similar things would effectively equal a constant fastpass, in effect would devalue its use. If much more people were staying onsite than offsite and the vast majority used front of the line (which they would if disney used it like universal and basically shoved it under your nose as a perk of staying onsite), you'd probably be better off in the non front of the line queue, unless they vastly skewed the number of people getting let through to the rides in favour of onsite guests, and I don't think this would do much good for disneys public image amongst all those villa renters for example. Universal can get away with it because they don't have have nearly as many people using front of the line access as disney would, so people don't notice it all that much, and anyway they have NEW HARRY POTTER!(Tm) to pull offsite guests in.

------------------------

DISCLAIMER: HYPOTHETICAL PROPOSAL FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY, WILL NOT BE IMPLEMENTED IN ANY WAY BY DISNEY.

I think this could have worked, using an RFID system but no pre booking:

Give onsite guests a seperate account on the system based on the magic band with a resort reservation needed, and say six preloaded, generic and guaranteed fastpasses for ANY RIDE per day (NOT prebooked) but no more.

Figure out very roughly what percentage of people are offsite in a certain month. Then, reduce the current levels of on the day fastpasses in that month to whatever proportion of guests are offsite (say appx. 1\3 of guests are offsite, reduce up for grabs fastpasses to 1/3 of current numbers) and put them on a first come first served RFID ticket based system for offsite guests based on kiosks at each ride (similar to old paper system, swipe RFID ticket and get a little paper slip printed out to remind you when your time is), but limit the number of fastpasses to say three or four a day per person.

Onsite fastpasses can be used only once an hour, offsite can't get another till previous is used.

Onsite get more fastpasses than offsite, don't have to fight over them as they are guaranteed and preloaded, and offsite get effectively the same chance at a fastpass as they do now, albeit with a cap of three a day. Attraction to stay onsite, but keeps offsite reasonably happy I'd have thought as they have decent access. I think a system like that might work. Feel free to point out the obvious mistakes

END HYPOTHETICAL MUSINGS. BACK TO REALITY

----------------------

It's a shame they didn't just keep a same day fastpass system but transfer it to RFID. I wouldn't have had an issue with that. Oh well.

 

[fflmaster]

I am not quite sure I am following. I could use a table.

But, the research shows that approximately 12500 guests ride TSMM a day. What percentage of those get FP is not known, but best guess has it at 60%. So possibly 7500 are distributed and wiped out daily by noon?

Otherwise, I liked reading your "paper".

I told you I was not as good as Robo at sarcasm.

I just think that with FP+ we are going to be able to reserve ahead of time for a certain amount of rides AND during the same day.

In my idea for TSMM, the FP+ would have 3000 available to schedule and the other 4500 to be available that day.

This could be great and it could be VERY bad. I don't have that answer.

 

[Squidgyness]

I'm drawing my line in the sand.

No same day fastpasses
No detailed info by July, no proper wide scale testing done by the end of August, or no full introduction of this by the end of the year
A negative effect on standby queues and counter service wait times. Shows being fastpassed too much.
Too many fastpasses in general.
Offsite being heavily impacted by this.

The above may happen, it may not. But if it does come to pass, and you do end up needing an advance fp to avoid waiting over an hour for most things, its the end, at least for a few years.

I hope it doesn't. But that is my line in the sand. I've tried to be positive, I even decided to try to go next year a few weeks ago despite being aware of this, but the information that keeps coming out just gets worse and worse to me. Fastpasses being extended to shows and counter service would be worrying. Very worrying.

There is my line in the sand. Ill come back to this post once the new system has been running and see if any of the above, or most, have come true, or been disproven. I hope the latter... I really do.

I'm limited in what I can do, I can't go to California, that would be too far, I could go to Orlando still and just go to seaworld and check out universal, I'd like to. But for 14 days, a big cost and an eight hour flight... No, I don't think that's enough. This is why I hope disney can remain attractive to me... Otherwise no more Orlando full stop. And man does that depress me.

The above probably only applies to me. Perhaps its selfish, but we can only say what will push us over the line, not anyone else. And being effectively required to plan rides to get more than a few in a day would push me over the line.

Keep hoping... I will try to remember that. I've always been more of a logic person though, even if I do appreciate magic, and my logic is screaming "BAD" at me right now.

 

[bcrook]

I told you I was not as good as Robo at sarcasm.

I just think that with FP+ we are going to be able to reserve ahead of time for a certain amount of rides AND during the same day.

In my idea for TSMM, the FP+ would have 3000 available to schedule and the other 4500 to be available that day.

This could be great and it could be VERY bad. I don't have that answer.

I think you have done nice work. Thanks for taking the time to do it.

 

[MichiganDVC]

Does anyone really think Disney is nervous about Universal?! A. They (Univ) can't really expand much more. B. Disney is an empire: toys, Mickey, movies, and the parks. Universal is a hodgepodge of unrelated movie rides and shows. I mean, if you asked for word association and you said the words "Disney World," what first things would come to mind? Mickey, castle, monorail, princess...
Now say "Universal Orlando:" Harry Potter.
That's it. I am not saying that people who go to Universal don't have anything else to go ther efore. I'm sure Universal fans could name 20 rides they love. I'm just saying as a brand, for someone who's thinking of traveling to the Orlando area and wants to go to the parks when they think Universal, what stands out? All they think of is Harry Potter. There's so much more in terms of brand the Disney offers it keeps people coming to their parks.

And either 2011, the Magic Kingdom alone had 17 million visitors. Universal Orlando and Islands of Adventure combined had 13 million visitors.

WDW total had 37 million visitors.

I really don't think that Universal and fear of Universal is driving anything the Disney does or is going to do.

 

[Squidgyness]

Does anyone really think Disney is nervous about Universal?! A. They (Univ) can't really expand much more. B. Disney is an empire: toys, Mickey, movies, and the parks. Universal is a hodgepodge of unrelated movie rides and shows. I mean, if you asked for word association and you said the words "Disney World," what first things would come to mind? Mickey, castle, monorail, princess...
Now say "Universal Orlando:" Harry Potter.
That's it. I am not saying that people who go to Universal don't have anything else to go ther efore. I'm sure Universal fans could name 20 rides they love. I'm just saying as a brand, for someone who's thinking of traveling to the Orlando area and wants to go to the parks when they think Universal, what stands out? All they think of is Harry Potter. There's so much more in terms of brand the Disney offers it keeps people coming to their parks.

And either 2011, the Magic Kingdom alone had 17 million visitors. Universal Orlando and Islands of Adventure combined had 13 million visitors.

WDW total had 37 million visitors.

I really don't think that Universal and fear of Universal is driving anything the Disney does or is going to do.

How about universal (inc ioa) + seaworld (inc. Aquatica) + wet n wild, + Busch gardens? What would that total? Since they come under the same ticket (flexi ticket)

Isn't universals attendance going up? Which means they are taking at least some business away from disney. Not to mention disney losing ground in the key teen demographic IMO. And it is an important demographic in these days of frugal living, all people must be targeted to get maximum profits. Family vacations should include something for kids of all ages. If people leave teens behind, well that's still money disney has lost.

Who is harder to please, a five year old or a fourteen year old? Hard to say, but If you've already pleased the five year old, why not get to work on the fourteen year old by putting in a shiny new land with a thrill attraction to advertise. I'm not talking changing the park to a universal clone, I'm talking adding things for teens whilst keeping kids interested.

They chose to redo fantasyland first, when they should have added a new area somewhere with a little more "wow" factor things for all ages, including young teens. IMO that was a poor choice, fine. But to then choose my magic over something like a new area or land (which could include new things for ALL ages) compounds the error.

New rides will attract people far more than this system in my opinion. It's my opinion, based on what I know other people have said in reaction to universals new rides. I know I'm following Antarctica at seaworld eagerly! After all, didn't releasing new rides keep disney ahead of the competition for years? I get they think this will take things to a new level in a more varied and general way, but I just can't see how it is more attractive at face value to guests.

 

[fflmaster]

Lol

 

[MichiganDVC]

We will be driving over to Disney for three of our vacation days. I'm calling it our farewell tour, because I don't see us returning to WDW because of the new system. I can't even begin to list all the things I dislike about it, so I won't even try.

Um, why don't you try just listing one thing you dislike about the new system? You know, the system that hasn't even been rolled out yet that we've only received a very, very little accurate and definite information from Disney about?

If you're the type of person that likes to complain about things that haven't even happened to you yet, please do stay at Universal.

 

[fflmaster]

I think you have done nice work. Thanks for taking the time to do it.

When this is all said and done one of us will be right, but BOTH of us will claim to be right.

 

[bcrook]

Does anyone really think Disney is nervous about Universal?! A. They (Univ) can't really expand much more. B. Disney is an empire: toys, Mickey, movies, and the parks. Universal is a hodgepodge of unrelated movie rides and shows. I mean, if you asked for word association and you said the words "Disney World," what first things would come to mind? Mickey, castle, monorail, princess...
Now say "Universal Orlando:" Harry Potter.
That's it. I am not saying that people who go to Universal don't have anything else to go ther efore. I'm sure Universal fans could name 20 rides they love. I'm just saying as a brand, for someone who's thinking of traveling to the Orlando area and wants to go to the parks when they think Universal, what stands out? All they think of is Harry Potter. There's so much more in terms of brand the Disney offers it keeps people coming to their parks.

And either 2011, the Magic Kingdom alone had 17 million visitors. Universal Orlando and Islands of Adventure combined had 13 million visitors.

WDW total had 37 million visitors.

I really don't think that Universal and fear of Universal is driving anything the Disney does or is going to do.

I have asked this question before (never got a response) but how many unique customers visit the Universal Complex versus the WDW complex? That gap is decreasing quickly.

Here is my simplified logic: 37 million at Disney and counts the same people over and over. Most people visit all four parks. And I would guess that the MK averages two park days per person. So cut the 17 million in half and you get about 8.5 unique visitors a year. I don't have any idea how to figure in AP people. Frequent users would skew the number lower.

Last summer I spent 13 days at Disney. I went into park 10 days, so I counted 10 times in the attendance. My party of 15 all counted 10 times. At universal, I spent 1 day.

As a unique customer it was dead even.

Islands of adventure had about 8 million visitors (I will assume nearly everyone who visited universal also visited IoA).

The number of unique customers visiting each park is probably fairly close. Disney makes its money by keeping people involved for longer stays. This is what Universal is trying to grab, more days. They are doing it with cheaper rates, building more hotels, and adding new attractions.

Disney is tackling this problem by trying to get their customers to commit to their parks 60 days in advance with the fastpass + and bracelet that works like wallet with a giant hole in it.

 

[MichiganDVC]

How about universal (inc ioa) + seaworld (inc. Aquatica) + wet n wild, + Busch gardens? What would that total? Since they come under the same ticket (flexi ticket)

Isn't universals attendance going up? Which means they are taking at least some business away from disney. Not to mention disney losing ground in the key teen demographic IMO. And it is keen in these days of frugal living. Family vacations should include something for kids of all ages. If people leave teens behind, well that's still money disney has lost.

Technically, yes Universal's attendance is going up. So is world population. I'm looking at the ratio between people who just go to the Magic Kingdom and people who go to all of the Universal Parks. It is heavily favoring the Magic Kingdom and probably always will. Universal's attendance might be going up but their actual park size can't get any bigger. The amount of land that they only build on is finite and they've reached it, I believe.

And Busch Gardens is in Tampa, that's at least an hour and a half away. You really can't lump that in like Bush Gardens is actually taking anybody away from Disney World ever. People really just don't go to the Orlando area and not go to Disney World. But I'm sure that most of the people to go to Disney World do not also go to sea world or universal. In fact I would bet that other than Florida residents a very high percentage of people who go to Universal also go to Disney World on the same trip.

And finally, for the precious teen demographic: one thing I've learned from young cousins who are roughly ages 11 and 14 is that kids these ages are very overscheduled. They have 3 to 4 sports and teams that they have to travel with during every break and every season. They have so many events that they're involved in and I wonder if this just really isn't the time that families get to take long vacations anymore because their kids are so busy with all these extracurriculars. Me personally, 20 years ago, my family stopped taking our annual trips to Disney World probably because I had sports and jobs all summer and there just wasn't time for me to go anymore. I went every year at least from the time I was 2 til 14 years old and then start going again when I was in my 20s when I wasn't so busy anymore.

I think Disney has this one right: draw in the little kids who can experience the magic and for the rest of their lives every time they go to the park either as young adults or with their own kids they're going to feel like they're kids again! It's the nostalgia keep bringing them back. I have absolutely no nostalgia for Universal Studios, nor will I ever.

 

[Squidgyness]

Um, why don't you try just listing one thing you dislike about the new system? You know, the system that hasn't even been rolled out yet that we've only received a very, very little accurate and definite information from Disney about?

If you're the type of person that likes to complain about things that haven't even happened to you yet, please do stay at Universal.

Some confirmed things I don't like about the new system:

Booking rides in advance.
Three fastpass limit for this (not touching the issue of same day fastpasses)
The expansion of fastpass attractions (without going into specifics.)
One fastpass per ride a day, no repeat riding of headliners using fastpasses in the same day

Things we can reasonably infer from recent tests:

Counter service prebooking

That's four definite and one probable dislikes right off the bat, and pretty big ones too. Most of all I dislike the fundamental basis of this system, booking rides in advance.

You can say that's selfish, but you can't say I only dislike things that aren't confirmed by disney in their terms and conditions or in the official announcement post, or by physical observation.

--------

"Disney is tackling this problem by trying to get their customers to commit to their parks 60 days in advance with the fastpass + and bracelet that works like wallet with a giant hole in it."

Agree. This is where I think corporate thinking diverged from what I want from disney.

 

[bcrook]

When this is all said and done one of us will be right, but BOTH of us will claim to be right.

I will own up. There are about a million posts from me on this topic, there will be nowhere to hide when this whole thing starts working like a dream and it is coolest thing to ever reach the amusement world. I will be in awe of it. Just like I am in awe of the Rapunzel bathroom. Only Disney would create something that elaborate looking for a toilet.

Every person who has posted concerns on this thread and every other thread wants to be wrong. I have 43 years of DVC left. I want that time to be as enjoyable as possible.

 

[bcrook]

Some confirmed things I don't like about the new system:

Booking rides in advance.
Three fastpass limit for this (not touching the issue of same day fastpasses)
The expansion of fastpass attractions (without going into specifics.)

Things we can reasonably infer from recent tests:

Counter service prebooking

That's four things right off the bat, and pretty big ones too. Most of all I dislike the fundamental basis of this system, booking rides in advance.

You can say that's selfish, but you can't say I only dislike things that aren't confirmed by disney in their terms and conditions or in the official announcement post, or by physical observation.

--------

"Disney is tackling this problem by trying to get their customers to commit to their parks 60 days in advance with the fastpass + and bracelet that works like wallet with a giant hole in it."

Agree. This is where I think corporate thinking diverged from what I want from disney.

I would add only one fp+ per ride per day
Only one park a day.

 

[Squidgyness]

I will own up. There are about a million posts from me on this topic, there will be nowhere to hide when this whole thing starts working like a dream and it is coolest thing to ever reach the amusement world. I will be in awe of it. Just like I am in awe of the Rapunzel bathroom. Only Disney would create something that elaborate looking for a toilet.

Every person who has posted concerns on this thread and every other thread wants to be wrong. I have 43 years if DVC left. I want that time to be as enjoyable as possible.

Oh how I want to be wrong. I'm quite picky in my vacation destinations, and coupled with my available budget, if Florida gets crossed off my list, I'm screwed. None of the others are appealing to me.

I really do hope this works. Ill still think they should have made a new land or something, but ill be even more glad it didn't go kaput.

EDIT: at above, ill put that in now, thanks for reminding me.

 

[MichiganDVC]

I have asked this question before, but how man unique customers visit Universal Complex versus the WDW complex? That gap is decreasing quickly.

Here is my simplified logic: 37 million at Disney and counts the same people over and over. Most people visit all four parks. And I would guess that the MK averages two park days per person. So cut the 17 million in half and you get about 8.5 unique visitors a year. I don't have any idea how to figure in AP people. Frequent users would skew the number lower.

Last summer I spent 13 days at Disney. I went into park 10 days, so I counted 10 times in the attendance. My party of 15 all counted 10 times. At universal, I spent 1 day.

As a unique customer it was dead even.

Islands of adventure had about 8 million visitors (I will assume nearly everyone who visited universal also visited IoA).

The number of unique customers visiting each park is probably fairly close. Disney makes its money by keeping people involved for longer stays. This is what Universal is trying to grab, more days. They are doing it with cheaper rates, building more hotels, and adding new attractions.

Disney is tackling this problem by trying to get their customers to commit to their parks 60 days in advance with the fastpass + and bracelet that works like wallet with a giant hole in it.

Yes, if Universal was built out in the middle of a swamp like Disney World was, and they could build and build and build forever and ever and ever more hotels popping up each year, then yes maybe Disney would be worried. Unfortunately Universal is completely surrounded. They have no more room to build really. There's no more room for extra hotels, so unless they knockdown part of it and rebuild that's really their only option.

And in terms of being a unique visitor, the thing that Disney World does really well, that Walt did on purpose because Disneyland did not do this well, was to have this dedicated park system where you would stay on site, eat on-site, transportation on site and go to the park...everything is included and involved. So sure one person in four days might visit for parks and count as four people, but that's four days that they stayed at a Disney resort and ate at a Disney restaurant and bought Disney souvenirs and merchandise for the kids and went to a park and bought all the items in there: food, etc...

Do people go to Universal and think "four days just isn't enough?" No. And unless they figure out a way to build a third theme park 300 feet above the existing theme parks, they'll never really compete.

The funny thing is that everyone on this thread is wringing their hands about how that will have to wait in these horribly long lines now for all their favorite rides. And the same breath they're saying that Universal's doing everything right and Disney is going to lose all their visitors to Universal if they don't watch out. Well which is it?

I, for one, could really appreciate less people at WDW from now on. Especially during Food and Wine... And especially at the Hawaii kiosk!!