Doug and BWVBound, thank you for the honest assessment. That is what it is looking like to me as well. We would need the 2 beds each trip and in order to get that, OKW or getting far more than 150 points appears to be the the only options to have an equal stay at a deluxe resort for at least 7 nights every other year.
I really like the idea of DVC, but as a few have honestly said, it looks like this may be a case of "DVC is not for everyone."
For a family of 3, wanting 2 beds, who like to eat out each night, it appears that based on room only costs (factoring out food/tickets) DVC still saves, but only a few thousand dollars over the long run.
Thanks everyone for the input.
One option you could consider is renting out points. The comparisons on price become much easier to make and don't require any long term committment.
Just as an example looking at Aug 25, 2013 to Sept 01, 2013 (7 nights) at the Wilderness Lodge. Lets assume $11/point to rent.
Hotel room at full price is $2,282.
DVC studio is 120 points = $1,320
DVC 1 bedroom is 255 points = $2,805
So the studio is $962 cheaper or $137/day cheaper. You'd need a 42% discount on the room rate to equal the studio price.
If you normally go with free dining for 3 adults that costs $52/person/day or $156/day or $1,092 for the week for three people.
Hotel room at full price with free dining = $2,282
DVC studio with buying dining plan = $2,412
So the hotel room with free dining has a better price then a DVC studio and buying the dining plan.
If one compared the BWV preferred view, the studio is 125 points and the 1 bedroom 255, while the BWI hotel room is $2,891.
BWI hotel room = $2,891 (full price)
BWV studio = $1,375
BWV 1 bedroom = $2,8051
then looking at free dining vrs buying it you get
BWI hotel room with free dining = $2,891
BWV studio buying
DDP = $2,468
Here the studio wins even when compared to free dining.
So DVC is a good deal only under certain conditions.