World of Color - How Will This DCA Show Impact DL Crowds?

[Eeee-va]

I also wonder if the AP numbers have really increased greatly, given the state of the economy, and the increase in rates. Not everyone who has an AP renews it the following year. I had one in 2008, didn't have it in 2009, and got one in 2010. And an AP holder like my husband may only visit a handful of times in a given year, if that, because it is cheaper to get the SoCal AP than several single-day tickets. So even with one million AP holders - they aren't all going to be crowding the parks as soon as WoC opens.

The theory is that the increase in AP-holders is actually partly because of the economy. A lot of people who were used to spending several thousand dollar for vacations far away are suddenly opting for what I've heard called a "staycation", where they stay near home and do local attractions. (And people who are within a day's drive are also perhaps more likely to buy APs. 2009 was the first year I bought an AP because it was cheaper to buy an AP and then go back to Disneyland for 1-2 more trips, than it would be to come back another year. Now that I have the AP, I find myself spending my major vacations at Disneyland since admission is "free." If my income were better, I might have flown somewhere for a vacation instead.)

If you're a Southern California resident and the dates work for you, the Southern California APs were previously (and to a lesser extent somewhat still are) priced quite low compared to the regular price of admission. The cheapest Southern California AP costs only a few dollars more than a 2-day hopper.

Of course, the payment plan is probably a big contributer, since it makes it easier for more locals to get APs since the cost is spread out.

 

[skiingfast]

Despite that the show will be popular will they do it three showings in a night?
Have they done that with Fantasmic or Remember?

Restarting the rides doesn't take a terrible amount of time. It doesn't require another daily track inspection. I've operated large electromechanical equipment and like hitting a light switch voila it runs again. They may be able to idle them for just 30 or 40 minutes, as the last riders depart, WoC runs and they start it back up. Plus they can run a cycle as the crowd is breaking up.

After the Fireworks, Fantasyland has been shutdown, and then reopens, it's not down for the whole night.

From PP to TSMM is close to the distance from the DL Hub to town square not a quick walk when the fireworks are done and you march with a few thousand people.

 

[HydroGuy]

Despite that the show will be popular will they do it three showings in a night?
Have they done that with Fantasmic or Remember?

Fantasmic, yes. RDCT, no. RDCT is of course a fireworks show which does not lend itself well to multiple performances.

World of Color, on the other hand, does not have any fireworks or live performances. It would be easy to do as many shows as they want. The limitations are when it gets dark outside (can't start before that) and how many people they can process into and out of the area. And when they need to close the park.

 

[HydroGuy]

What are the chances that when WoC is up and running,F 'wont' be? I know I've said this more than once,but I want to ride the Mark Twain at night.

The better chance for MT at night is winter and/or weekdays during off-season. Fantasmic will be going full steam ahead during high season like this summer.

 

[HydroGuy]

My guess would be that many AP holders will want to see WoC once, and then not bother with the crowds after that.

I also wonder if the AP numbers have really increased greatly, given the state of the economy, and the increase in rates. Not everyone who has an AP renews it the following year. I had one in 2008, didn't have it in 2009, and got one in 2010. And an AP holder like my husband may only visit a handful of times in a given year, if that, because it is cheaper to get the SoCal AP than several single-day tickets. So even with one million AP holders - they aren't all going to be crowding the parks as soon as WoC opens.

Based on June 2009 when the refurbed Fantasmic opened and the new Magical fireworks debuted, the AP effect will be huge. There were people last June who staked out spot 6+ hours in advance. When the AP blockout kicked in the huge crowds went away and it went back to just normal crowds.

With 9000 per show and a million AP holders, that is 111 shows just for all AP holders to see it once. Assuming no one else is there - which they will be. WoC will be swamped for all of 2010 and still busy in 2011.

 

[HydroGuy]

What does Disney do with crowds on New Year's Eve? Do they end up turning people away from both parks? Is there a point where they don't let people with handstamps re-enter? My concern's more with the latter.

While in theory only 18,000 people are going to see WoC each night, I still think DCA could fill to capacity in the evening--especially if there end up being 3 WoC shows, or if masses of people try to see the show from outside the viewing area, despite not seeing the show the "right" way.

Meanwhile, it's at least somewhat likely that people will come in to get Showpasses, then duck out to Disneyland (or even away from DLR). So I wonder if DCA may have to either stop allowing people to enter when the park is relatively uncrowded (with the Showpass-holders having exited the park, leaving it relatively open) or else some people may have trouble re-entering in the evening.

If Showpass works like FP it could be even worse, because the group might enter Disneyland and then the runner might take the tickets over to DCA to get Showpasses. That would mean that a whole family might be wanting to get back into the park, even though only one person actually set foot in it.

My guess is that a sizable number of AP-holders will come and spend the whole day at the parks. It takes so long to park, I can't see the majority getting there early and then leaving for 6 or 7 hours, only to come back at 5 or 6 PM to be sure to get back into DCA on time. I do think the main issues will be sheer novelty of the show (drawing a ton of people in) and the Southern California blockout dates.

I assume that Showpass will be available first thing in the morning, which I think has the potential to create lines like those Disney had imagined Captain EO would have.

I hope there are soft openings before the official premiere. A ton of people would love to see the very first showing ever, and if the first public showing is announced well in advance, they may make plans for it. (If the opening is a bit of a surprise, then that should dissipate a little bit of the crowding because there's no longer quite as much motivation to be there the very first night.)

There's no way of knowing how things will be...but I'm pretty sure I am going to use my GAD voucher for FPs on 6/11.

DL does reach capacity of about 45000 inside the park on NYE and other busy periods. I am not sure if DCA has ever reached capacity or what that number even is.

Understand that on days with two shows they will have 18000 people come into DCA in the mornings to get ShowPasses. Some will stay. Many will not. Some will hop to DL. Some will leave DLR. Then 18000 will come back at night. If they do three shows make that 27000 people. And DCA averages 17000 per day coming through the turnstiles. Not 17000 in the park at one time. Just 17000 scattered from opening to closing.

WoC will be a huge, huge pressure on DCA attendance. It sounds scary to some, but that is really what Disney and, frankly, all of us, have always wanted. A second park at DLR that is popular and rivals, to some degree, DL itself.

 

[S. S. Columbia]

DL does reach capacity of about 45000 inside the park on NYE and other busy periods.

HG, is "45,000" a typo? Did you mean 75,000?

I think the capacity of DL is much higher than 45,000. (Or maybe I'm confusing "capacity" with "total attendance for a day"?)

A CM told me that DL had 63,000 guests on June 26, 2009 (the last day that the SoCal APs were un-blocked, before the summer).

The Unofficial Guide mentions 70,000 (I think).

And "some people say" that DL's actual capacity is about 85,000:

"While kept a "closely guarded secret" those in the know say that Disneyland's actual capacity is about 85,000 guests."

- Doug Rhoades

Link: http://www.pacificsites.com/~drhoades/faq.htm

I don't know the correct number, but 45,000 sounds low.

 

[S. S. Columbia]

Understand that on days with two shows they will have 18000 people come into DCA in the mornings to get ShowPasses. Some will stay. Many will not. Some will hop to DL. Some will leave DLR. Then 18000 will come back at night. If they do three shows make that 27000 people. And DCA averages 17000 per day coming through the turnstiles. Not 17000 in the park at one time. Just 17000 scattered from opening to closing.

And they're going to change the main entrance to DCA, with new turnstiles, a new gate, etc.

That could be an interesting transition. Growing pains.

 

[HydroGuy]

HG, is "45,000" a typo? Did you mean 75,000?

I think the capacity of DL is much higher than 45,000. (Or maybe I'm confusing "capacity" with "total attendance for a day"?)

A CM told me that DL had 63,000 guests on June 26, 2009 (the last day that the SoCal APs were un-blocked, before the summer).

The Unofficial Guide mentions 70,000 (I think).

And "some people say" that DL's actual capacity is about 85,000:


I don't know the correct number, but 45,000 sounds low.

I don't know myself. I based it on a recent Al Lutz article.

http://miceage.micechat.com/allutz/al010510a.htm

The result is famously huge crowds, and this year was no different. The two weeks around Christmas and New Years were the wildest, and the average daily attendance at Disneyland swelled to over 65,000 per day. The managers running the main entrance had to cut off ticket sales almost daily, and DCA got a nice bump of around 5,000 extra visitors per day due to Disneyland being "sold out" daily, bringing the DCA numbers to around 20,000 per day. It helped that George Kalogridis as the new President was out walking both parks routinely this busy holiday season, even in the middle of the nighttime New Years Eve madness. It's amazing what you can learn when you leave your office, and George obviously understands that.

With almost all of the Annual Passholders blocked out in late December, the Team Disney Anaheim (TDA) executives pushed the limit of people allowed inside the park at any one time from the previous cutoff of around 45,000, and instead let that in-park number float just above 50,000 repeatedly for several hours per day during the week between Christmas and New Years. The thinking behind that higher in-park number was that Disneyland's attraction and entertainment roster has never been fuller or working more efficiently and they should try to push the envelope on how many people they can fit.

 

[S. S. Columbia]

I based it on a recent Al Lutz article.

http://miceage.micechat.com/allutz/al010510a.htm

Thank you.

 

[skiingfast]

With 9000 per show and a million AP holders, that is 111 shows just for all AP holders to see it once. Assuming no one else is there - which they will be. WoC will be swamped for all of 2010 and still busy in 2011.

How is it known there are 1M annual pass holders?

It seems that with 20M annual park visits for DLR, that could be each pass holder going 20 times in a year. What's the average annual use of the annual pass? What's the park guest makekup? Day ticket/Pass?

 

[blackjackdelta]

How is it known there are 1M annual pass holders?

It seems that with 20M annual park visits for DLR, that could be each pass holder going 20 times in a year. What's the average annual use of the annual pass? What's the park guest makekup? Day ticket/Pass?

Looks like that would be a good project for you to take on and report back. The AP's are published Disney numbers from what I read many moons ago(1st of year.)
We would like to see what you come up with.

Jack

 

[HydroGuy]

How is it known there are 1M annual pass holders?

It seems that with 20M annual park visits for DLR, that could be each pass holder going 20 times in a year. What's the average annual use of the annual pass? What's the park guest makekup? Day ticket/Pass?

See

ONLINE 12/1
Thanks a Million (APs)
AP numbers climb - parking doesn't, EO update, DCA update, More...

DL attendance in 2009 was reportedly about 17 million, a 15% growth over 2008. Any day now the theme park industry should release an objective report on 2009 attendance. Last year it was released mid-April.

Since the 15% growth happened in the middle of the biggest recession in recent history, and AP numbers have grown so much over the last couple years, it is not hard to connect the dots and see that the increased DL attendance in 2009 was due to the AP program and SoCal AP program in particular.

 

[skiingfast]

Hydroguy: The article has lots of good info, really all of Luzt'a do. The article though good seems it may have an inconsitency.

Let me explain, it says around Thankgiving attendance reaches 60k with 40k AP. That leaves 20k regular guests. Then with AP's blocked it gets 45-40K guests. It could be reasoned that there are still 20K regular guests so the other 20-25k must have premier passes.

This means half of AP passes are premier. It could be. I think of all companies Disney has one of the best understanding of adjusting price to raise demand. They have an advantage because there costs (labor) are more fixed than a manufacturer of or airline.

But I don't know about half being premier. The ideal candidate for a pass is someone who goes a few times a year and thinks I spent $210 on day ticket and could of bought a pass for $170. But looking at the black out they would probably drop another $50 to upgrade so they can go on weekends, still now they are paying ten more than daytickets but could get out four times to make it worth it. But then another $80 to get a delux, that's a big jump more than a day ticket, but they can go on Sundays and summer days. That looks like the sweet spot.

But the leap to no blocked days is another $140, that means two more day in the park, and 7 days total through the year to get your money's worth. This is a long shot from the person who went a few times and looked at the passes.

But it is what the article suggests. The good news and bad news on crowds from this, is that the million pass holders would still be going to the parks with or without a pass. They were fans of DL to begin with. Their attendance only went up 10 to 20% That is to say most went 6 days with a pass 7 or went 4 now go 5. The bad news is really bad for WoC.

The passholders are probably far more in the know. They have been recieving more info on WoC while most people in SoCal will see a picture on the Sunday paper and think to go the next weekend or later in the summer.

But if 40K APs show up in DCA on those non blackout days in June to see it. 20K premier pass holders are showing up on the opening weekends. I'm not sure if DCA will have ever seen the daily gate entries that are coming.

Some more good news. At least DCA will have more walls down than it has for the last few years. The paths should be seeming wide.

Here's the link Hydroguy supplied with info on attendance.

http://miceage.micechat.com/allutz/al120109a.htm

 

[HydroGuy]

Hydroguy: The article has lots of good info, really all of Luzt'a do. The article though good seems it may have an inconsitency.

Let me explain, it says around Thankgiving attendance reaches 60k with 40k AP. That leaves 20k regular guests. Then with AP's blocked it gets 45-40K guests. It could be reasoned that there are still 20K regular guests so the other 20-25k must have premier passes.

This means half of AP passes are premier. It could be. I think of all companies Disney has one of the best understanding of adjusting price to raise demand. They have an advantage because there costs (labor) are more fixed than a manufacturer of or airline.

But I don't know about half being premier. The ideal candidate for a pass is someone who goes a few times a year and thinks I spent $210 on day ticket and could of bought a pass for $170. But looking at the black out they would probably drop another $50 to upgrade so they can go on weekends, still now they are paying ten more than daytickets but could get out four times to make it worth it. But then another $80 to get a delux, that's a big jump more than a day ticket, but they can go on Sundays and summer days. That looks like the sweet spot.

But the leap to no blocked days is another $140, that means two more day in the park, and 7 days total through the year to get your money's worth. This is a long shot from the person who went a few times and looked at the passes.

But it is what the article suggests. The good news and bad news on crowds from this, is that the million pass holders would still be going to the parks with or without a pass. They were fans of DL to begin with. Their attendance only went up 10 to 20% That is to say most went 6 days with a pass 7 or went 4 now go 5. The bad news is really bad for WoC.

The passholders are probably far more in the know. They have been recieving more info on WoC while most people in SoCal will see a picture on the Sunday paper and think to go the next weekend or later in the summer.

But if 40K APs show up in DCA on those non blackout days in June to see it. 20K premier pass holders are showing up on the opening weekends. I'm not sure if DCA will have ever seen the daily gate entries that are coming.

Some more good news. At least DCA will have more walls down than it has for the last few years. The paths should be seeming wide.

Here's the link Hydroguy supplied with info on attendance.

http://miceage.micechat.com/allutz/al120109a.htm

You make some good points. I do not know with certainty the specific AP numbers. Even the one million number I have only ever seen from Al Lutz. We can speculate forever on what percentages on which days.

The bottom line for me though is that in the last two years the SoCal AP blockouts have had a huge, huge effect on attendance - especially in times like June and August. One sees this by looking at consective days when SoCal APs are not blocked and then, on the next day they are blocked. The attendance swings dramatically. Stands to reason it is the SoCal APs (and not PAP or DAP) causing the swing.

I only have one data point from personal experience. It was late June 2007 and we were at DLR for 3 1/2 days. The first day and a half were not blocked. And the last two days were blocked. It was right after Nemo opened. I did see the crowds drop on the final two days during blockouts, but it was not that much. Noticeable but not dramatic.

I knew about the blockouts then but it was not as big a deal as it is now. And I did not have flexibility in choosing those dates because we were on our way back from Hawaii and had to go on those days or not go at all. They had less than 500,000 AP holders at that time. Now the AP numbers are so high it has really swung things around.

I would also argue that the growth in DL attendance from 14.5 million in 2008 to 17 million in 2009 was almost all driven by AP holders. MK in Florida - with much lower AP numbers - was flat last year while DL grew 15% (roughly 2 million). Why? AP holders are the most likely explanation. And when those increased numbers seem to fall predominantly in times when SoCal APs are not blocked it makes it easy to conclude that SoCal AP holders are by far the biggest influence.

 

[blackjackdelta]

You make some good points. I do not know with certainty the specific AP numbers. Even the one million number I have only ever seen from Al Lutz. We can speculate forever on what percentages on which days.

The bottom line for me though is that in the last two years the SoCal AP blockouts have had a huge, huge effect on attendance - especially in times like June and August. One sees this by looking at consective days when SoCal APs are not blocked and then, on the next day they are blocked. The attendance swings dramatically. Stands to reason it is the SoCal APs (and not PAP or DAP) causing the swing.

I only have one data point from personal experience. It was late June 2007 and we were at DLR for 3 1/2 days. The first day and a half were not blocked. And the last two days were blocked. It was right after Nemo opened. I did see the crowds drop on the final two days during blockouts, but it was not that much. Noticeable but not dramatic.

I knew about the blockouts then but it was not as big a deal as it is now. And I did not have flexibility in choosing those dates because we were on our way back from Hawaii and had to go on those days or not go at all. They had less than 500,000 AP holders at that time. Now the AP numbers are so high it has really swung things around.

I would also argue that the growth in DL attendance from 14.5 million in 2008 to 17 million in 2009 was almost all driven by AP holders. MK in Florida - with much lower AP numbers - was flat last year while DL grew 15% (roughly 2 million). Why? AP holders are the most likely explanation. And when those increased numbers seem to fall predominantly in times when SoCal APs are not blocked it makes it easy to conclude that SoCal AP holders are by far the biggest influence.

I wish I had the time to debate this. Right now I am sitting at DEN in a hanger waiting for my next flight hopefully in 30 minutes or less. Practically speaking from my point of view it always seems to get more crowd each year. last year I made a tactical mistake going the first week after the AP's.

Jack

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