Yeah, I hear everything you're saying. I think, for someone who likes or loves Poly, 150 direct points there to get blue card benefits is as close to a no brainer as it gets. You can make up the cost difference between direct and resale with a few years of APs, dining discounts, and some MMs - and, if Poly's resale value holds up, it's about as close as you're going to get to a risk-free proposition (not saying it is risk-free, just as close as you're going to get). The current CCV sale isn't quite as good because resale CCV prices have not kept up with PVB, so you've got more a "drive off the lot" loss, and you need to make sure you're in it for more of the long haul to be worth it. And, of course with the restricted resorts, we all know you shouldn't be buying points there unless you love that resort and want them for the long-term.
My main struggle at the moment is whether it is worth it for more direct points. My direct RIV points are definitely enough - I don't really need more direct points. If I decide I really like LSL, and availability is as I expect it to be, I'll have plenty of points to use there. Then, I have my resale CCV points for O14 resort stays. But, what if I want to have a year where I want to use my points at RIV AND LSL? Or a different future resort? How much value will I place on even more of my points being able to be used everywhere? How much more will I like having more direct points to easily exchange for APs through MMB? (Of course, no guarantee that last benefit will stick around, but it is a pretty nice one right now - the ability to easily monetize your direct points without renting.)
Those are the current direct benefits I'd get value from. But, then, there is what we all know is likely to happen at some point - that is, further devaluation of resale points. How long before MM early registration is only available if your stay is booked using direct points? Could they limit lounge access to stays on direct points? How long before more benefits are added to direct points? Could they offer better exchanges on them in the future?
For me, as someone who already knows I love one of the restricted resorts and plan to stay there many times into the future, I see a lot of value in points being direct for that alone. The resale restrictions are doing their job for someone like me. Is it enough for me to buy more direct points at CCV? I'm not sure the current benefits are enough, but when viewed as a hedge against the potential of future benefits and flexibility, it might be. Of course, that could end up being a bad hedge and waste of money too. Just haven't decided where I land on that yet.