As a percentage of the entire population of 10,000,000. The Imperial model prediction was .7% of the entire population and actually now it is .015% of the entire population.
Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?
- Thread starter kdonnel
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What's the opposite of "crying wolf".....maybe "the sky is falling"? Ok, so then this is a..."the sky is kind of falling moment".
Here's what I have learned from the very early phase of this Pandemic....the Normalcy Bias is in full effect. What is that you ask, well, I'm happy to tell you. From Wikipedia: " Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will function in the future the way they normally have functioned in the past and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster." In our case, I'd say it's probably closer to 40-50%.
It's the phenomenon where people believe that "this can't happen here". And...even if they kind of believe that it is kind of happening, they also believe "if it happens here, it isn't going to happen to me".
The virus doesn't care what any of us think. It really doesn't. My husband and I have been literally *astounded* at the behavior of some of our extended family members, and also successful friends who we considered to be intelligent and reasoned people. The behavior of some of our friends and family is going to take awhile for us to get over. We're witnessing incredibly ignorant and selfish behavior, the likes of which we've never seen.
And the behavior of some of our family and friends, and all of the idiots out protesting is only going to prolong our national nightmare. It will cause more deaths and more economic hardship for everyone. Not one of us gets out of this untouched. And when the history of this pandemic is compiled, it will be documented that the wealthiest nation on our planet at the time was very late to react, completely unprepared, slow to test and divided over whether or not the virus is even "real". The numbers will tell the tale.
That's what a pandemic is...it's about facts, science and math. That's it. You can keep your opinions to yourself. Or shout them from the rooftop with an AR-15 strapped around your body. Those of us who respect science, math and facts don't care. Neither does the virus.
The longer those people continue to act like *that*....the longer the reasonable among us will simply stay home as much as we possibly can.
Oh, and 40,265 Americans have died of COVID-19, so you know....there's that.
Here's what I have learned from the very early phase of this Pandemic....the Normalcy Bias is in full effect. What is that you ask, well, I'm happy to tell you. From Wikipedia: " Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will function in the future the way they normally have functioned in the past and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster." In our case, I'd say it's probably closer to 40-50%.
It's the phenomenon where people believe that "this can't happen here". And...even if they kind of believe that it is kind of happening, they also believe "if it happens here, it isn't going to happen to me".
The virus doesn't care what any of us think. It really doesn't. My husband and I have been literally *astounded* at the behavior of some of our extended family members, and also successful friends who we considered to be intelligent and reasoned people. The behavior of some of our friends and family is going to take awhile for us to get over. We're witnessing incredibly ignorant and selfish behavior, the likes of which we've never seen.
And the behavior of some of our family and friends, and all of the idiots out protesting is only going to prolong our national nightmare. It will cause more deaths and more economic hardship for everyone. Not one of us gets out of this untouched. And when the history of this pandemic is compiled, it will be documented that the wealthiest nation on our planet at the time was very late to react, completely unprepared, slow to test and divided over whether or not the virus is even "real". The numbers will tell the tale.
That's what a pandemic is...it's about facts, science and math. That's it. You can keep your opinions to yourself. Or shout them from the rooftop with an AR-15 strapped around your body. Those of us who respect science, math and facts don't care. Neither does the virus.
The longer those people continue to act like *that*....the longer the reasonable among us will simply stay home as much as we possibly can.
Oh, and 40,265 Americans have died of COVID-19, so you know....there's that.
godisney14
DIS Veteran
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Can you look at the graphs of new infections and deaths in Sweden from the link below and tell me how the trend line suggests declining numbers?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
The only trend line I see is up.
3 infected family members in NYC, 1 dead aunt in Boston and a brother who is a cop in NJ. It's very real to me.
The numbers are what the numbers are because we did something; I can only imagine what those numbers would be like if we had done nothing.
The numbers are what the numbers are because we did something; I can only imagine what those numbers would be like if we had done nothing.
Here is the data directly from the Swedish health service. Total cases will always go up cant go down) as will total deaths (can’t go down) but new cases are flattening as are daily deaths, There is no upward trend for either in your link nor below.
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| COVID-19 cases in Sweden ( ) Deaths Active cases | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | # of cases[a] | # of deaths[a] | |
| 2020-02-04 | 1(n.a.) | ||
| ⋮ | 1(=) | ||
| 2020-02-26 | 2(+100.0%) | ||
| 2020-02-27 | 3(+50.0%) | ||
| 2020-02-28 | 11(+266.7%) | ||
| 2020-02-29 | 14(+27.3%) | ||
| 2020-03-01 | 14(+0.0%) | ||
| 2020-03-02 | 19(+35.7%) | ||
| 2020-03-03 | 32(+68.4%) | ||
| 2020-03-04 | 62(+93.8%) | ||
| 2020-03-05 | 87(+40.3%) | ||
| 2020-03-06 | 146(+67.8%) | ||
| 2020-03-07 | 179(+22.6%) | ||
| 2020-03-08 | 225(+25.7%) | ||
| 2020-03-09 | 326(+44.9%) | ||
| 2020-03-10 | 424(+30.1%) | ||
| 2020-03-11 | 620(+46.2%) | 1(n.a.) | |
| 2020-03-12 | 771(+24.4%) | 1(+0.0%) | |
| 2020-03-13 | 923(+19.7%) | 2(+100.0%) | |
| 2020-03-14 | 994(+7.7%) | 3(+50.0%) | |
| 2020-03-15 | 1,063(+6.9%) | 5(+66.7%) | |
| 2020-03-16 | 1,146(+7.8%) | 7(+40.0%) | |
| 2020-03-17 | 1,265(+10.4%) | 8(+14.3%) | |
| 2020-03-18 | 1,410(+11.5%) | 14(+75.0%) | |
| 2020-03-19 | 1,553(+10.1%) | 21(+50.0%) | |
| 2020-03-20 | 1,733(+11.6%) | 31(+47.6%) | |
| 2020-03-21 | 1,867(+7.7%) | 38(+22.6%) | |
| 2020-03-22 | 1,984(+6.3%) | 50(+31.6%) | |
| 2020-03-23 | 2,166(+9.2%) | 61(+22.0%) | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2,396(+10.6%) | 81(+32.8%) | |
| 2020-03-25 | 2,710(+13.1%) | 106(+30.9%) | |
| 2020-03-26 | 2,996(+10.6%) | 135(+27.4%) | |
| 2020-03-27 | 3,362(+12.2%) | 167(+23.7%) | |
| 2020-03-28 | 3,662(+8.9%) | 202(+21.0%) | |
| 2020-03-29 | 3,943(+7.7%) | 240(+18.8%) | |
| 2020-03-30 | 4,358(+10.5%) | 284(+18.3%) | |
| 2020-03-31 | 4,833(+10.9%) | 329(+15.8%) | |
| 2020-04-01 | 5,319(+10.1%) | 380(+15.5%) | |
| 2020-04-02 | 5,874(+10.4%) | 447(+17.6%) | |
| 2020-04-03 | 6,476(+10.2%) | 526(+17.7%) | |
| 2020-04-04 | 6,833(+5.5%) | 594(+12.9%) | |
| 2020-04-05 | 7,174(+5.0%) | 675(+13.6%) | |
| 2020-04-06 | 7,564(+5.4%) | 765(+13.3%) | |
| 2020-04-07 | 8,302(+9.8%) | 843(+10.2%) | |
| 2020-04-08 | 8,958(+7.9%) | 945(+12.1%) | |
| 2020-04-09 | 9,602(+7.2%) | 1,020(+7.9%) | |
| 2020-04-10 | 10,057(+4.7%) | 1,095(+7.4%) | |
| 2020-04-11 | 10,451(+3.9%) | 1,169(+6.8%) | |
| 2020-04-12 | 10,914(+4.4%) | 1,248(+6.8%) | |
| 2020-04-13 | 11,350(+4.0%) | 1,311(+5.0%) | |
| 2020-04-14 | 11,830(+4.2%) | 1,371(+4.6%) | |
| 2020-04-15 | 12,434(+5.1%) | 1,427(+4.1%) | |
| 2020-04-16 | 13,058(+5.0%) | 1,488(+4.3%) | |
| 2020-04-17 | 13,746(+5.3%) | 1,511(+1.5%) | |
| 2020-04-18 | 14,270(+3.8%) | 1,520(+0.6%) | |
| 2020-04-19 | 14,385(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden#cite_note-Incomplete-15) |
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I realize there is nothing I could write or show that would change your views. When the quarantine ends you will certainly be able to self isolate longer if you wish so I don’t see the problem. For me and my children and other family members we are willing to bear whatever risk there is and get on with our lives however many of those days are left to us.
/
godisney14
DIS Veteran
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You do realize that the data you are looking at shows active cases and not new cases that the worldometers and JHU site compiles.
You’re trying to compare apples to pears (not oranges if you understand what I mean).
Again, I stand by what I said, which is not that I am going to hide in my house, contrary to what you claim I said.
But, then again, “I realize there is nothing I could write or show that would change your views.”
Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?
Wouldn't it be wonderful if it turns out that way? I love a happily ever after ending.
Wouldn't it be wonderful if it turns out that way? I love a happily ever after ending.
I'm curious, if that data showed that significant numbers of lives would be spared if you stayed home for an additional 2-4 weeks in "quarantine", would you do so? Especially if we could at least mitigate the overall health and economic pain in the short term?
Is your personal situation dire from an income standpoint? I only ask because my DH and I are in a position where we can stay home, for an extended period if necessary. So I'm just trying to understand everyone's circumstances.
Jennasis
DIS life goes on
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Well...I posted yesterday at the very beginning of the thread that 37,000 people had died ina short period of time due to the virus, so it is far from crying wolf.
It's a little over 24 hours later and the death toll has risen by some 4,000 people (just here in the US) to over 41,000...so I would suggest that the sky is falling.
We can't take our foot off the gas yet (which sucks for me as a small business owner who has had to shut down due to the stay at home order here).
It's a little over 24 hours later and the death toll has risen by some 4,000 people (just here in the US) to over 41,000...so I would suggest that the sky is falling.
We can't take our foot off the gas yet (which sucks for me as a small business owner who has had to shut down due to the stay at home order here).
Notrealname
Mouseketeer
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It seems some misunderstand exactly what Sweden did and did not do. First and foremost the Swedes are following the same kind of social distancing guidelines implemented in many other countries. Additionally cell phone data indicates many are staying home. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland -- a popular vacation destination -- dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend and there was an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital. And, big manufacturing companies, such as Volvo, closed.
Despite that, infection and death rates are higher than in neighboring Scandinavian countries. Swedes have perhaps the best healthcare system in the world. They have an extremely high proportion of single person households as well as a very high work from home rate, each of which significantly limits disease spread.
“Sweden also recently pushed back against the notion that there’s little to no social distancing going on.
‘We don’t have a radically different view,’ Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in an interview with Radio Sweden. ‘The government has made a series of decisions that affect the whole society. It’s a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden.’”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ersial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective
Despite that, infection and death rates are higher than in neighboring Scandinavian countries. Swedes have perhaps the best healthcare system in the world. They have an extremely high proportion of single person households as well as a very high work from home rate, each of which significantly limits disease spread.
“Sweden also recently pushed back against the notion that there’s little to no social distancing going on.
‘We don’t have a radically different view,’ Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in an interview with Radio Sweden. ‘The government has made a series of decisions that affect the whole society. It’s a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden.’”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ersial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective
Notrealname
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Oh if only you and your family could take all kinds behavioral risks without jeopardizing others. But in reality you can’t. Your choices can, and do, affect others. It goes way beyond disease spread.
. And it’s interesting to see how every piece of data can be argued with some more data contradicting it. 
kdonnel
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How does society value a life potentially saved by additional quarantine time against a life potentially lost by additional quarantine time?
Unemployment has been shown to be a factor in 1 in 5 suicides. The longer we continue quarantine, the more suicides. Are those peoples lives worth less then a potential coronavirus victim?
What about the children that are beaten to death during the additional 2-4 weeks in quarantine? Are those peoples lives worth less then a potential coronavirus victim?
What about the people who have delayed what would have been life saving medical treatments because the hospitals and doctors offices are basically closed? Are those peoples lives worth less then a potential coronavirus victim?
It is a very hard decision to make and everyone will draw the line between which life is worth more at a different point but that line needs to be drawn.
CarolAnn856
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Those suppositions have been debunked time and time again. If you have access to some new, earth-shattering data, please do share. Life-saving treatments are continuing, and while there may be higher mortality rates in a few small areas due to closures, the possibility that that the number would be higher than deaths from COVID-19 is ludicrous.
kdonnel
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So you draw the line closer to the value of a potential coronavirus victim, that is great.
But you really should not dismiss the link between unemployment and suicide. It is real and has been shown by multiple studies.
Dan Murphy
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Dan Murphy
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Jrb1979
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...ff90fe-7daf-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html
What happened in South Dakota is a good indication of how long it's going to take to get to each phase.
What happened in South Dakota is a good indication of how long it's going to take to get to each phase.
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