I had to bookmark this thread because, when I first saw it a few days ago, I didn't have time to reply and I wanted to offer some insight.
In my experience, I think that, yes, something will probably open up at the PPH (I have no idea about the DLH) for early December -- but it probably won't be for $200!
Last year there was a great AP discount that, when added up with taxes and all of that, brought the PPH to about $193 per night (standard room) -- in early December. Since then I'm sure that PPH rack rates have gone up, so any discounts would not be that good.
If you have/had an AP you might possibly be able to get something in the range of (at the absolute lowest/best) $248 - $271-ish, if any AP rates eventually open up for your dates in early December, or maybe more in the $290-ish range. There is also another Fall discount offer going on (it's not an AP rate) that will put the PPH at a much higher rate than you'd want, and there may or may not be available rooms connected to that offer at the moment.
Honestly, I don't think that all of the rooms are reallllllly booked up. They were showing as all booked up in September -- and that is too early for all of the PPH rooms to book up, let alone all of the standard rooms at the other 2 hotels as well. They were showing as booked up right after I got an email from Disney Visa about a 20% hotel discount.
At WDW, perhaps something could book up 3 months in advance. At DLR, however, there are soooo many people who stay off-property, and there are so many locals, that it is highly unlikely that all of the PPH (except for the suites) would have been legitimately booked up that early, as soon as the discounts were made public.
There is nothing happening this year that is out of the ordinary -- in other words, no Cars Land opening and no major new event that will draw in mobs of people. (Next year could be a different story, however, depending on what happens for the 60th anniversary.) This holiday season is shaping up to be almost a carbon copy of last year's holiday season.
My belief is that some of the rooms are being held back for a while -- maybe they are blocked or set aside for certain discounts or certain groups -- and Disney then tries to book up the more expensive rooms at rack rates or higher rates (like view rooms at the GCH) first. Then, when it gets closer to the time frame in question, rooms will suddenly open up -- but you have to check your dates constantly and keep an eye on them.
I have booked rooms (for early December) as late as the last week in October (maybe even later than that). Rooms open up all the time due to cancellations as well, or due to people switching to one of the other 2 hotels, or upgrading their type of room, changing trip dates, etc.
A CM once told me that their actual online reservations system may not be updated for a couple of days at a time, so what is showing as available or unavailable online may not be the most up to date info. She said that calling in the mid-to-late morning is always a better bet to find out the latest news on what's currently available.
Also, sometimes the DLR reservations system will say a whole time frame is booked if there is one date in that time frame that is booked so far. For example, if you entered in (and I am just guessing) "December 1st - 4th" and the 3rd was booked up, the reservations system would tell you and the CM checking it that all of your dates were booked even if they weren't. The 1st, 2nd and 4th could be available, but the 3rd would throw everything off kilter.
