Will There Be A VGC2?

[Paul Stupin]

With the always high demand and low availability of Grand Californian resale contracts, and prices there going crazy, I think Disney has an even stronger reason to convert another wing of the Grand Californian to DVC than they do with the Grand Floridian. They sell multiple properties at WDW, seems like Disneyland, long underrepresented DVC wise, could easily support two, DLT and an expanded VGC. DLT would not have been approved for construction if they didn't have some pretty healthy projected sales figures. We all know demand will be sky high. So why not make more money by introducing another DVC product for Disneyland, and giving interested buyers a choice? This wouldn't be the first time Disney surprises us.

I think it would be easier to create additional studios, and perhaps CCV style one bedrooms, in the conversion. Great! This would add some less pricey categories to the point charts. VGC's expiration date of 2060 is still almost 40 years away, so, like VGF, VGC2 would remain in the original association.

I think it's a matter of when and not if. If DLT sells out quickly, it's kind of a no brainer. But it's not impossible that an announcement could happen sooner. Surely Disney is familiar with the ridiculous VGC resale prices. A flood of new direct points available for sale at The Grand Californian, priced highly but lower than currently priced resale contracts, could sell out even faster than DLT. It would also get the resale price out of the stratosphere and allow Disney to cash in instead, and require a lower investment than DLT. The resort is an incredible property. Why shouldn't Disney do more with it?

So what do you think? If it happens, count me in!

 

[ajiuo]

With the always high demand and low availability of Grand Californian resale contracts, and prices there going crazy, I think Disney has an even stronger reason to convert another wing of the Grand Californian to DVC than they do with the Grand Floridian. They sell multiple properties at WDW, seems like Disneyland, long underrepresented DVC wise, could easily support two, DLT and an expanded VGC. DLT would not have been approved for construction if they didn't have some pretty healthy projected sales figures. We all know demand will be sky high. So why not make more money by introducing another DVC product for Disneyland, and giving interested buyers a choice? This wouldn't be the first time Disney surprises us.

I think it would be easier to create additional studios, and perhaps CCV style one bedrooms, in the conversion. Great! This would add some less pricey categories to the point charts. VGC's expiration date of 2060 is still almost 40 years away, so, like VGF, VGC2 would remain in the original association.

I think it's a matter of when and not if. If DLT sells out quickly, it's kind of a no brainer. But it's not impossible that an announcement could happen sooner. Surely Disney is familiar with the ridiculous VGC resale prices. A flood of new direct points available for sale at The Grand Californian, priced highly but lower than currently priced resale contracts, could sell out even faster than DLT. It would also get the resale price out of the stratosphere and allow Disney to cash in instead, and require a lower investment than DLT. The resort is an incredible property. Why shouldn't Disney do more with it?

So what do you think? If it happens, count me in!

I think they would rather have DVC go to another resort at Disneyland. That way they can implement the new resale restrictions… being able to book California at 7 months would be a huge direct perk.

 

[anomamatt]

I suppose it depends on the Grand Californian hotel occupancy rate. That was/is a problem with Grand Floridian, which is why it makes sense for WDW to convert to DVC. I don't know how full the Grand Cal hotel side is?

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

When they announced VGF2, I immediately wondered about VGC2 like you. But yes I think the difference is, like @anomamatt said, more to do with the occupancy rate which VGF has been struggling with. Anyone have intel on Grand Cal's hotel side occupancy? The only think that worries me about adding more studios @ VGC is would it make 1 bedrooms even more difficult to get with more owners and no increase in 1,2,3 bedrooms?

 

[anomamatt]

The only think that worries me about adding more studios @ VGC is would it make 1 bedrooms even more difficult to get with more owners and no increase in 1,2,3 bedrooms?

This seems complicated to predict what would happen. Having more studios could indirectly put less demand on 2 BRs (due demand for studios taking away the lock-off 2 BRs). I fear it would be one of those "no one knows until it's tried" experiments. Of course, we will see what they do with VGF and how that plays out with respect to demand for non-studios.

 

[Paul Stupin]

When they announced VGF2, I immediately wondered about VGC2 like you. But yes I think the difference is, like @anomamatt said, more to do with the occupancy rate which VGF has been struggling with. Anyone have intel on Grand Cal's hotel side occupancy? The only think that worries me about adding more studios @ VGC is would it make 1 bedrooms even more difficult to get with more owners and no increase in 1,2,3 bedrooms?

I think they could add at least some one bedrooms as well, using two side by side hotel rooms a la Copper Creek.

 

[princesscinderella]

I don’t think they would convert more hotel rooms there to DVC it’s not a large resort to begin with. VGF is huge compared to VGC. We own a small point contract at VGC which we the use exclusively there ever 2-3 years. The regular hotel room rates for GC have skyrocketed in the last 5 years, so I don’t think that there’s a need to convert rooms because they aren’t getting guests staying there. It’s an amazing hotel and Disneyland just doesn’t have the land to keep expanding like at WDW.

 

[bcwife76]

They are already planning to make a new wing of the Disneyland Hotel and have that be DVC. Also, Anaheim has very strict rules around timeshares and vacation rentals so I doubt the same thing could happen at the VGC as is happening at VGF.

 

[jbreen2010]

I think they like to always have a few properties they are selling as “new”. Given some uncertainty this past year it was probably very easy to take one of the higher priced cash resorts (not sure if it’s normally sold out or if they have space) and just make it a dedicated DVC building. I’m sure more properties coming in the next few years.

 

[KTownRaider]

I think there certainly would be the demand on the west coast, even beyond DLT which I think will sell out quickly. That said, instead of VGC2, how about converting Paradise Pier Hotel? It's the least popular of three DL hotels, and I frankly don't think anyone would miss that place if was demolished/redeveloped, made-over, or rethemed. With the Westin and JW Marriott opening nearby in the last year, PPH is really lagging by almost any measure despite charging the customary Disney premium.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The key is that Anaheim decided they would approve a *new development* to be a timeshare. Based on zoning priorities, removing hotel inventory to convert to timeshare would not align with those zoning priorities and rules in place.

Anaheim places a big priority on hotel inventory; timeshare is a concession. Converting the priority use to the conceded use is a harder sell.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think there certainly would be the demand on the west coast, even beyond DLT which I think will sell out quickly. That said, instead of VGC2, how about converting Paradise Pier Hotel? It's the least popular of three DL hotels, and I frankly don't think anyone would miss that place if was demolished/redeveloped, made-over, or rethemed. With the Westin and JW Marriott opening nearby in the last year, PPH is really lagging by almost any measure despite charging the customary Disney premium.

I’d love them to tear it down and build something great. It’s a total eyesore. But that would would be a far bigger deal than converting a wing of the GC.

 

[KTownRaider]

But that would would be a far bigger deal than converting a wing of the GC.

Totally agree- not going to happen. Not for a while at least, and not if converting GC is a real option (I don't think it historically has had occupancy issues). Just so much potential with that unimaginative and underutilized PPH location.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The key is that Anaheim decided they would approve a *new development* to be a timeshare. Based on zoning priorities, removing hotel inventory to convert to timeshare would not align with those zoning priorities and rules in place.

Anaheim places a big priority on hotel inventory; timeshare is a concession. Converting the priority use to the conceded use is a harder sell.

This does not strike me as an insurmountable obstacle should Disney decide they actually want to do it.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Totally agree- not going to happen. Not for a while at least, and not if converting GC is a real option (I don't think it historically has had occupancy issues). Just so much potential with that unimaginative and underutilized PPH location.

Also, if Disney ever actually succeeds in their longterm goal of expanding both parks to the other side of Disney Drive, not sure they'd want the Paradise Pier, perhaps the ugliest hotel in Disney's worldwide holdings, sitting right in the middle of it.

 

[The Jackal]

Didn’t Anaheim make a set limit of timeshare rooms Disney can have at DL? Did this get lifted? I know the DL DVC Tower is getting built shortly.

 

[Paul Stupin]

They are already planning to make a new wing of the Disneyland Hotel and have that be DVC. Also, Anaheim has very strict rules around timeshares and vacation rentals so I doubt the same thing could happen at the VGC as is happening at VGF.

I’m quite aware of the new Disneyland Tower, which I mentioned in the first post. It’s not a wing but a separate building. Assuming that its popular and sells out, my point is that it’s not inconceivable Disney might consider a VGC2. I’m assuming that they would come to some sort of an agreement with Anaheim, which they will have to do anyway if they want to proceed with their long term plans to expand the parks.

Ok, here’s an expensive thought! Tear down Paradise Pier and build an expansion to the Grand Californian with some more hotel rooms as well as a DVC component! It’s cheaper than building a new resort, and gets rid of a hotel that not many seem to like. It would be Disneyland’s version of Boulder Ridge. Am assuming there would be a way to connect the expansion to the main resort, perhaps a bridge/walkway similar to the one that connects Downtown Disney to the Disneyland Hotel.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Didn’t Anaheim make a set limit of timeshare rooms Disney can have at DL? Did this get lifted? I know the DL DVC Tower is getting built shortly.

They had to approve a variance to zoning code for DLT, yes. The limits still exist.

The key with all DLR development is around Anaheim's willingness to approve. It has taken years to get approval for another project. Anaheim still has stated goals around hotel units - the last failed development project Disney had in Anaheim was to take advantage of a tax plan to encourage hotel unit growth.

Anaheim is unlikely to approve taking hotel units off the books. The DLT approval was helped by them being incremental reshare,and not removal of inventory.

 

[Paul Stupin]

They had to approve a variance to zoning code for DLT, yes. The limits still exist.

The key with all DLR development is around Anaheim's willingness to approve. It has taken years to get approval for another project. Anaheim still has stated goals around hotel units - the last failed development project Disney had in Anaheim was to take advantage of a tax plan to encourage hotel unit growth.

Anaheim is unlikely to approve taking hotel units off the books. The DLT approval was helped by them being incremental reshare,and not removal of inventory.

For the last year and a half, the closure of Disneyland was an enormous blow to Anaheim, with tourist related businesses and city income affected even more than other cities across the country. Anaheim was in dire straits. The Disneyland Forward initiative, detailing possible expansion plans, specifically includes a huge new section referred to as “A New Kind Of Disney Entertainment Destination,” which “could include hotel, retail, dining and entertainment.” Disney clearly is hoping that Anaheim might regard these development ideas with a newfound flexibility.

If the new DVC Disneyland Tower proves to be an enormous hit, and Disney continues with its plans to potentially spend BILLIONS of dollars to expand the parks, isn’t it a bit naive to believe that they won’t try to include a new DVC component?

Both Disneyland and WDW wouldn’t exist without some pretty big dreams, which have a tendency to come true when Disney pursues them. And if they actually add hotel rooms down the line, which is pretty much a certainty, doesn’t it make sense that we’ll eventually see a greater Disney Vacation Club presence? Of course we will.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The Disneyland Forward initiative, detailing possible expansion plans, specifically includes a huge new section referred to as “A New Kind Of Disney Entertainment Destination,” which “could include hotel, retail, dining and entertainment.” Disney clearly is hoping that Anaheim might regard these development ideas with a newfound flexibility.

But again, that involves expansion, nto conversion. I'm too lazy this morning to dig up the Anaheim total hotel unit goal, but the unit goal specifically excludes timeshare units.

Anaheim has shown a different willingness when it is additive versus converting existing, and not just with Disney. The lay of the land for dev and approval has always been considerably different in California than in Florida.