Will the Return of AP's Affect the Resale Market?

[DonMacGregor]

Will the return of AP's have an effect on the resale market? As we have heard over and over, some (significant?) number of owners are looking to exit DVC ownership due to the lack of AP's. Will we see some number of contracts get pulled from the market as this singular complaint have been removed from the equation? Thoughts?

 

[Sandisw]

I think it might...but it also might sway some people to direct now that those are back as an option. I think its a good sign that the program is not going away but that they will simply start and stop along the way.

And, with the change to no park reservation for AP holders starting at 2 pm, except weekends at MK, that is just another clue this program is here to stay.

There is also now a sign up at VGF that seems to indicate that DVD is lowering the minimum buy in for new owners to 100 points...still need to to 150 for membership extras...but that as well might sway people to go direct for those that didn't want 150 to start!

 

[twilightraine]

I think it might...but it also might sway some people to direct now that those are back as an option. I think its a good sign that the program is not going away but that they will simply start and stop along the way.

And, with the change to no park reservation for AP holders starting at 2 pm, except weekends at MK, that is just another clue this program is here to stay.

There is also now a sign up at VGF that seems to indicate that DVD is lowering the minimum buy in for new owners to 100 points...still need to to 150 for membership extras...but that as well might sway people to go direct for those that didn't want 150 to start!

Do you know if that is new DIRECT owners or new owners altogether?

 

[Sandisw]

Do you know if that is new DIRECT owners or new owners altogether?

From this post, it seems that new buyers can get in now with as little as 100 points! Again, you don't get the membership extras...ie: discounts, access to Sorcerer pass and the DVC Y...but you can use the 100 points at RIV and future resorts since they will be direct

https://www.disboards.com/threads/minimum-points.3892651/post-64722352

 

[lilsonicfan]

Yeah I sort of see it as two effects - those who were listing their contracts b/c they were unhappy at not having APs now pull their listings and keep them.... which would mean less supply for resale.... but then people considering resale who might now turn to direct, thus lessening the demand for resale.

Direct, for the purpose of buying an AP, does not make sense for someone like me who is unlikely to even visit FL once a year, let alone more than once. A 10 day pass is still significantly cheaper than an AP, after all.

 

[tidefan]

Yeah I sort of see it as two effects - those who were listing their contracts b/c they were unhappy at not having APs now pull their listings and keep them.... which would mean less supply for resale.... but then people considering resale who might now turn to direct, thus lessening the demand for resale.

Direct, for the purpose of buying an AP, does not make sense for someone like me who is unlikely to even visit FL once a year, let alone more than once. A 10 day pass is still significantly cheaper than an AP, after all.

You would still be able to purchase an Incredi-pass starting on 4/20 even if you were a resale member. Those APs are going on sale to everyone.

 

[nlenguyen]

if the sorcerer pass is 969 + tax what is the total amount?

 

[Sandisw]

if the sorcerer pass is 969 + tax what is the total amount?

It would be about $1031.99

 

[nlenguyen]

It would be about $1032...I rounded up

I have never bought one since I started with DVC in 2021. I calculated if I do 2 4-day trips the pass should pay for itself. Is that correct?

 

[Sandisw]

I have never bought one since I started with DVC in 2021. I calculated if I do 2 4-day trips the pass should pay for itself. Is that correct?

That is what we do and we find it does...we typically do 3 or 4 night trips...several times a year...so it works out great! And, its allowed us to just pop down for an extra trip if we wanted!

 

[nlenguyen]

That is what we do and we find it does...we typically do 3 or 4 night trips...several times a year...so it works out great! And, its allowed us to just pop down for an extra trip if we wanted!

Also, if I buy the pass next week but won't travel until next year February, is the pass valid once it is activated next year? If they run out of passes except renewals, would my pass still be valid even though it is not activated?

 

[Sandisw]

Also, if I buy the pass next week but won't travel until next year February, is the pass valid once it is activated next year? If they run out of passes except renewals, would my pass still be valid even though it is not activated?

You have one year to activate the voucher/pass. So, yes, if you buy next week, you will still be eligible to activate it next February...and your pass will begin in Feb 2024.

Once sold, it can't be taken away. Now, if something happens and you don't get there to activate it before next April, then it just simply holds it value and if passes are not available after it expires, you won't be able to get another one.

But, as long as you make it there before that one year, you are good to go!

 

[nlenguyen]

You have one year to activate the voucher/pass. So, yes, if you buy next week, you will still be eligible to activate it next February...and your pass will begin in Feb 2024.

Once sold, it can't be taken away. Now, if something happens and you don't get there to activate it before next April, then it just simply holds it value and if passes are not available after it expires, you won't be able to get another one.

But, as long as you make it there before that one year, you are good to go!

Thank you for your help

 

[Jlo85]

You would still be able to purchase an Incredi-pass starting on 4/20 even if you were a resale member. Those APs are going on sale to everyone.

This is why it really doesn't change the direct vs. resale equation for me as a resale only buyer. $10K direct buy-in premium vs. an extra $400/year for an Incredi-pass. If they had made it blue-card ONLY, I would have done a double-take.

I'm not an expert, but long-term could Disney use the Incredi-pass as the 'Membership Extra' perk fee we've heard mentioned before? With the dining and merch discounts, it feels a bit like that to me already. Could they add Top of the World Lounge access or Moonlight Magic, for example?

 

[nlenguyen]

In the grand scheme, $400 a year is not that much of a discount. But if you are needing to go during Thanksgiving/Christmas then the incredipass is the only pass anyway. Wish they could make a DVC annual pass that can be tailored to the DVC flexibility. I like that in CA you can buy their lower-priced passes for outofstate. That should be the way the FL pass works

 

[Sandisw]

This is why it really doesn't change the direct vs. resale equation for me as a resale only buyer. $10K direct buy-in premium vs. an extra $400/year for an Incredi-pass. If they had made it blue-card ONLY, I would have done a double-take.

I'm not an expert, but long-term could Disney use the Incredi-pass as the 'Membership Extra' perk fee we've heard mentioned before? With the dining and merch discounts, it feels a bit like that to me already. Could they add Top of the World Lounge access or Moonlight Magic, for example?

DPEP can do anything they want with the offerings of tickets...that is not up to DVD...so, in theory, could they decide that the only people eligible for an AP are qualified DVC owners, and FL residents...yes.

Does DPEP have any reason to do that? Nope, so I don't think you would see it happen....But, in terms of savings, it really does depend on family size and the need for an AP to help offset savings.

In our case, because our adult children are also owners of our contract, we have 9 eligible members...could me more if my DD's have children....at today's savings of $460 per pass...we don't travel holidays...that is over $4000 a year...wouldn't take us long to offset the extra.

Even a family of 4, its over $1600 per year...so maybe 6 to 7 years...and the bonus is that you have access to RIV and future resorts, and everything else that comes along with membership extras.

Now, that is not to say that this applies to everyone and for someone who really can't make the AP work, then no amount of savings matters...but, for someone on the fence, and who can do the two trips on one trip, buying every other year, or does visit multi times in a year, it may be enough now to tip the scales...

 

[Doberge]

Difficult to guess. In addition to aforementioned groups either pulling contracts off market or buying direct and instead of resale, but there's also a group that has direct benefits already but without an AP they visited less often. They'll note look to add on resale points.

But if I had to guess, the supply dip will be immeasurable and that people moving to direct will cancel out people adding on resale, so I'm guessing a net wash and not much change.

 

[lilsonicfan]

This is why it really doesn't change the direct vs. resale equation for me as a resale only buyer. $10K direct buy-in premium vs. an extra $400/year for an Incredi-pass. If they had made it blue-card ONLY, I would have done a double-take.

I agree with this in a sense, but also agree with Sandi - it may depend on the size of the family. I have a family of 5, so if I bought an AP as a direct DVC member and could save $400 x 5, that's $2,000 - after a number of trips, I may have recouped that buy-in premium of $10K. But, for my family, I think the AP thing is extremely unlikely anyway as we would not really likely go to WDW twice in one year.... also, the buy-in premium for what we need is likely a lot higher than $10K. I've been looking at SSR - for direct buy-in, it would cost me $39,600 for 200 points, but I might be able to get those points resale for $18,000 - that's $21,600 as the buy-in premium!

 

[AstroBlasters]

At the risk of personal injury, I would be doing cartwheels if Disney would give me $400 off my Inspire Key…

My wife said she would get one for everyone in the family and we would take more weekend trips to the park.

So, I am happy for the WDW families.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I agree with this in a sense, but also agree with Sandi - it may depend on the size of the family. I have a family of 5, so if I bought an AP as a direct DVC member and could save $400 x 5, that's $2,000 - after a number of trips, I may have recouped that buy-in premium of $10K. But, for my family, I think the AP thing is extremely unlikely anyway as we would not really likely go to WDW twice in one year.... also, the buy-in premium for what we need is likely a lot higher than $10K. I've been looking at SSR - for direct buy-in, it would cost me $39,600 for 200 points, but I might be able to get those points resale for $18,000 - that's $21,600 as the buy-in premium!

1) If buying direct, would you still go SSR or would you prefer another property with the 7-11m window?

2) Do you care about access to future resorts once the 2042 expire or ever going to VDH?

3) You can go hybrid (150 direct and 50+ resale). I’d get the resale first and then by in at the “member ad-on rate”.

4) Would having an AP and DVC change how often your family goes to Disney?

5) Buying direct doesn’t make sense for many people at today’s resale prices. But…. this will definitely change the calculation for some when considering resale only vs hybrid.

6) Owning hybrid offers some peace of mind for the next 30+ years depending on holding time.